Sport Picks
Caerau Ely vs Llanelli - H2H Analysis, Preview & Predictions
Wales
FAW Welsh Cup 
AI Match Summary
A one-off knockout match in the FAW Welsh Cup. History leans heavily one way in this fixture. Llanelli have shipped 2.79 goals a game lately, while Caerau Ely have conceded 1.48 and scored 2.37. Past meetings favor Llanelli slightly — 1-4-0 in wins/losses/draws. They last met on Sep 11, 2026, ending 3:0. xG projections (2.50 - 1.44) back Caerau Ely to edge this. The model's pick is Home (1) to win or Over 2.5 goals.
Win Probability Meter
Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles
Model Confidence
Aggregate indicator score
- Form's been kind to Caerau Ely lately — more wins on the board than Llanelli.
- Win probability leans Caerau Ely's way, sitting at 90%.
- Caerau Ely have the better recent form, but knockout football is a different beast — one bad day ends the campaign.
- Historical meetings favor Llanelli, who have won 2 of the last 5 encounters.
- High conversion rates suggest a high-scoring game (Over 2.5 Probability: 78%).
- History favors Llanelli here — 4 wins from the last 5 head-to-heads.
Goal Probability Engine
Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories
Recent Team Form Analysis
Averages per match over historical game filters
| Metric | Caerau Ely | Llanelli |
|---|---|---|
| Matches Played | 27 | 28 |
| Wins | 14 | 1 |
| Draws | 5 | 5 |
| Losses | 8 | 22 |
| Goals Scored | 2.37 | 0.57 |
| Goals Conceded | 1.48 | 2.79 |
| Expected Goals (xG) | 2.50 | 1.44 |
| Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) | 1.10 | 1.40 |
H2H
Historical prediction success rates across key markets
SokaPicks Momentum Index
Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)
Attack & Defence Capability Index
AI Prediction Engine Forecast
Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets
SokaPicks Smart Insights
Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system
Caerau Ely found the back of the net in 81% of recent matches (27 games).
Defensive concern: Llanelli conceded in 96% of 28 recent games.
Games between these two average 3.40 goals.
Away concern: Llanelli has suffered 5 losses in 5 recent matches.
