Sport Picks
AI Match Summary
First leg ended 3-0. This leg finished 3-0.
Win Probability Meter
Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles
29%
20%
51%
Draw rate projection: 20% Favored: Morriston Town
Model Confidence
Aggregate indicator score
29%
/ Low Confidence
- Form's been kind to Caerau Ely lately — more wins on the board than Morriston Town.
- Model puts this one close, with a 39% draw probability.
- Caerau Ely have the better recent form, but knockout football is a different beast — one bad day ends the campaign.
- Historical meetings favor Caerau Ely, who have won 1 of the last 1 encounters.
- High conversion rates suggest a high-scoring game (Over 2.5 Probability: 78%).
Goal Probability Engine
Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories
Over 0.5 Goals 92%
Over 1.5 Goals 82%
Over 2.5 Goals 78%
Over 3.5 Goals 19%
Over 4.5 Goals 9%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 72.6%
Caerau Ely Clean Sheet 20%
Morriston Town Clean Sheet 10%
Recent Team Form Analysis
Averages per match over historical game filters
| Metric | Caerau Ely | Morriston Town |
|---|---|---|
| Matches Played | 29 | 5 |
| Wins | 13 | 3 |
| Draws | 7 | 0 |
| Losses | 9 | 2 |
| Goals Scored | 2.17 | 1.2 |
| Goals Conceded | 1.38 | 1.4 |
| Expected Goals (xG) | 1.73 | 0.63 |
| Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) | 1.10 | 1.40 |
H2H
Historical prediction success rates across key markets
Oct 18, 2025 FA Cup
Caerau Ely vs Morriston Town
3:0
SokaPicks Momentum Index
Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)
Caerau Ely 31 / 100
Morriston Town 30 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).
Attack & Defence Capability Index
Caerau Ely Morriston Town
AI Prediction Engine Forecast
Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets
Primary Pick Caerau Ely Win (1)
Secondary Pick Over 2.5 Goals or BTTS Yes
Correct Score 2:1
BTTS Outcome Yes (GG)
Over/Under Pick Over 2.5
SokaPicks Smart Insights
Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system
Defensive concern: Morriston Town conceded in 80% of 5 recent games.
Caerau Ely scored in 76% of their last 29 games.
These sides typically produce 3.00 goals when they meet.
Caerau Ely went unbeaten in 3 of their last 5 games.
Scoring Trends
Caerau Ely VS -
2.25 Goals Scored 0
0.25 Goals Conceded 0
63% Over 1.5 0%
50% Over 2.5 0%
38% Over 3.5 0%
Recent Form & Match History
Caerau Ely
(Home) 14 Aug
Trethomas Bluebirds
2 : 4 Caerau Ely
07 Aug
Caerau Ely
1 : 1 Ynyshir Albions
01 Aug
Carmarthen Town
4 : 3 Caerau Ely
25 Jul
Caerau Ely
4 : 4 Barnstaple Town
21 Jul
Haverfordwest
2 : 1 Caerau Ely
Page 1 of 6
07 Aug
Caerau Ely
1 : 1 Ynyshir Albions
25 Jul
Caerau Ely
4 : 4 Barnstaple Town
03 Jul
Caerau Ely
5 : 1 Croesyceiliog FC
30 Jun
Caerau Ely
0 : 0 Cardiff Corries
26 Jun
Caerau Ely
2 : 0 Undy
Page 1 of 3
Morriston Town
(Away) 18 Oct
Caerau Ely
3 : 0 Morriston Town
20 Sept
Morriston Town
1 : 0 Clydach
15 Nov
Afan Lido
2 : 1 Morriston Town
19 Oct
Llantwit Major
1 : 2 Morriston Town
21 Sept
Caldicot
1 : 2 Morriston Town
18 Oct
Caerau Ely
3 : 0 Morriston Town
15 Nov
Afan Lido
2 : 1 Morriston Town
19 Oct
Llantwit Major
1 : 2 Morriston Town
21 Sept
Caldicot
1 : 2 Morriston Town
Tournament Bracket & Draw
1/64-finals
Porthmadog 3
Denbigh 2
TBD -
Buckley -
Port Talbot 2
Seven Sisters 1
Afan Lido 3
Evans Williams 2
Pwllheli 1
Rhyl 3
Brickfield Rangers 3
NFA 1
Llantwit Major 2
Baglan Dragons 0
Cwmbran Town 5
Ynyshir Albions 4
Llanelli -
TBD -
TBD -
Haverfordwest -
Aberystwyth -
TBD -
TBD -
Barry Town -
Caerphilly 1
Caldicot 3
Penrhiwceiber Rangers 7
Pentwynmawr Ath 0
Saltney Town 3
Gresford 7
Llanrug 4
Ruthin Town 3
Cardiff Metropolitan University -
TBD -
Taffs Well 2
Abertillery Excelsiors 1
Mold Alexandra -
TBD -
TBD -
TNS -
Newtown -
TBD -
TBD -
Caernarfon -
Llannefydd 5
Llanberis FC 1
Penrhyncoch 2
Sychdyn Utd 0
Llwydcoed 3
Lliswerry 1
Pill -
Treowen -
Pontypridd United -
TBD -
Rhayader 1
Cefn Cribwr 4
Carmarthen Town -
TBD -
TBD -
Trethomas Bluebirds -
Llanfair United 1
Kinmel Bay 2
TBD -
Colwyn Bay -
Goytre Utd 2
Ammanford Town 1
TBD -
Cambrian United -
Briton Ferry -
TBD -
TBD -
Penybont -
Bow Street 4
Cefn Albion 2
TBD -
Flint Town -
Holyhead 4
Forden Utd 0
TBD -
Airbus UK Broughton FC -
Cwmbach Royal Stars 3
Garden Village 4
Tredegar Town 1
Glynneath Town 3
Broughton Utd 2
Welshpool 1
Berriew FC 0
Trearddur Bay 3
Newport City -
TBD -
Penygraig Utd 3
Cwm Welfare 2
Blaenavon Blues 4
Canton 1
Pontyclun FC 4
Tata Steel 1
St. Asaph 0
Bangor 1876 6
TBD -
Guilsfield -
Holywell Town FC -
TBD -
Rhostyllen 5
Nefyn United 2
Dinas Powys 3
Afan United 1
Cardiff Draconians 4
Cwmbran Celtic 2
Abercarn United 1
Pure Swansea 2
TBD -
Trefelin -
Caersws FC 6
Hawarden Rangers 1
Dolgellau Athletic 8
Queens Park 3
Penydarren 0
Caerau Ely 5
Morriston Town 1
Clydach 0
Llandudno FC -
TBD -
TBD -
Flint Mountain -
Bala -
TBD -
TBD -
Connahs Q. -
1/32-finals
Porthmadog 1
Buckley 0
Port Talbot 3
Afan Lido 1
Rhyl 1
Brickfield Rangers 0
Llantwit Major 1
Cwmbran Town 2
Llanelli 3
Haverfordwest 0
Aberystwyth 0
Barry Town 5
Caldicot 0
Penrhiwceiber Rangers 2
Gresford 9
Llanrug 0
Cardiff Metropolitan University 5
Taffs Well 1
Mold Alexandra 1
TNS 2
Newtown 0
Caernarfon 3
Llannefydd 1
Penrhyncoch 2
Llwydcoed 2
Treowen 5
Pontypridd United 3
Cefn Cribwr 1
Carmarthen Town 5
Trethomas Bluebirds 1
Kinmel Bay 0
Colwyn Bay 5
Goytre Utd 0
Cambrian United 6
Briton Ferry 0
Penybont 5
Bow Street 0
Flint Town 3
Holyhead 2
Airbus UK Broughton FC 5
Garden Village 2
Glynneath Town 4
Broughton Utd 0
Trearddur Bay 6
Newport City 3
Penygraig Utd 1
Blaenavon Blues 4
Pontyclun FC 2
Bangor 1876 2
Guilsfield 1
Holywell Town FC 3
Rhostyllen 2
Dinas Powys 1
Cardiff Draconians 3
Pure Swansea 1
Trefelin 6
Caersws FC 0
Dolgellau Athletic 1
Caerau Ely 3
Morriston Town 0
Llandudno FC 3
Flint Mountain 0
Bala 0
Connahs Q. 3
1/16-finals
Porthmadog 3
Port Talbot 2
Rhyl 3
Cwmbran Town 2
Llanelli 0
Barry Town 6
Penrhiwceiber Rangers 0
Gresford 3
Cardiff Metropolitan University 2
TNS 1
Caernarfon 4
Penrhyncoch 0
Treowen 1
Pontypridd United 2
Carmarthen Town 1
Colwyn Bay 3
Cambrian United 1
Penybont 3
Flint Town 1
Airbus UK Broughton FC 0
Glynneath Town 2
Trearddur Bay 5
Newport City 3
Blaenavon Blues 2
Bangor 1876 2
Holywell Town FC 1
Cardiff Draconians 3
Trefelin 4
Dolgellau Athletic 0
Caerau Ely 2
Llandudno FC 2
Connahs Q. 1
1/8-finals
Porthmadog 1
Rhyl 2
Barry Town 4
Gresford 0
Cardiff Metropolitan University 2
Caernarfon 4
Pontypridd United 0
Colwyn Bay 3
Penybont 0
Flint Town 1
Trearddur Bay 5
Newport City 3
Bangor 1876 2
Trefelin 0
Caerau Ely 2
Llandudno FC 1
Quarter-finals
Rhyl 2
Barry Town 1
Caernarfon 4
Colwyn Bay 1
Flint Town 3
Trearddur Bay 0
Bangor 1876 3
Caerau Ely 1
Semi-finals
Rhyl 1
Caernarfon 2
Flint Town 5
Bangor 1876 1
Final
Caernarfon 3
Flint Town 0
