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Caerleon vs Monmouth

Wales Wales

Division 1 2012/2013
Our Tip

AI Match Summary

Monmouth in this Division 1 2012/2013 matchup, with the score ending 0-1 — backing the pre-match view that favored Monmouth.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

21%
Caerleon
15%
Draws
64%
Monmouth
Draw rate projection: 15% Favored: Monmouth

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

64% / High Confidence
  • Form's been kind to Monmouth lately — more wins on the board than Caerleon.
  • Model gives Monmouth a 64% chance of winning this.
  • Regular Division 1 2012/2013 form gives a decent read on both sides.
  • High conversion rates suggest a high-scoring game (Over 2.5 Probability: 78%).

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 92%
Over 1.5 Goals 82%
Over 2.5 Goals 78%
Over 3.5 Goals 12.5%
Over 4.5 Goals 6%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 72.2%
Caerleon Clean Sheet 20%
Monmouth Clean Sheet 14%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Caerleon Monmouth
Matches Played 30 19
Wins 3 7
Draws 3 1
Losses 24 11
Goals Scored 0.8 1.58
Goals Conceded 2.27 2
Expected Goals (xG) 1.10 0.86
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.10 1.40

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Feb 23, 2013 Division 1
Caerleon vs Monmouth
0:1
Nov 17, 2012 Division 1
Monmouth vs Caerleon
3:1

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Caerleon 10 / 100
Monmouth 84 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Caerleon Monmouth

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick Monmouth Win (2)
Secondary Pick Over 2.5 Goals or BTTS Yes
Correct Score 1:2
BTTS Outcome Yes (GG)
Over/Under Pick Over 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Monmouth has conceded goals in 84% of their last 19 outings.

H2H data points to 2.50 goals as a typical output.

Caerleon found the back of the net in 53% of recent matches (30 games).

Caerleon went unbeaten in 1 of their last 5 games.

Scoring Trends

- VS Monmouth
0 Goals Scored 0.63
0 Goals Conceded 1
0% Over 1.5 38%
0% Over 2.5 38%
0% Over 3.5 25%

Recent Form & Match History

Caerleon

(Home)
19 Oct
Pure Swansea
4 : 1
Caerleon
31 Oct
Afan Lido
2 : 0
Caerleon
03 Oct
Caerleon
2 : 1
Treharris Athletic
06 May
Caerleon
0 : 1
Taffs Well
04 May
Caerleon
1 : 2
Tata Steel
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Monmouth

(Away)
19 Oct
Monmouth
2 : 3
Pill
21 Sept
Newport City
0 : 2
Monmouth
25 Sept
Buckley
2 : 0
Monmouth
04 Sept
Monmouth
3 : 0
Llanelli
14 Aug
Monmouth
3 : 1
Cwmamman United
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