Sport Picks

Stadium Background

Caernarfon vs Connahs Q.

Wales Wales

Cymru Premier 2025/2026 The Oval, Caernarfon
Caernarfon Logo

Caernarfon

2 - 4
FT
Connahs Q. Logo

Connahs Q.

Our Tip

Match Events

1' Event
Franklin H.
13' Event
Mooney P.
36' Event
Hughes R.
(Penalty)
Summary Win Prob Goals Form H2H Tactics Players Indices Predictions Timeline Accuracy Compare

AI Match Summary

The Cymru Premier 2025/2026 game between Caernarfon and Connahs Q. finished 2-4, a result that aligned with the model's pre-match lean toward Connahs Q..

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

40%
Caernarfon
20%
Draws
40%
Connahs Q.
Draw rate projection: 20% Favored: Draw

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

40% / Low Confidence
  • Caernarfon carry the better recent record into this one.
  • 40% — that's where the model lands on Caernarfon taking it.
  • This is a straightforward league game — the season-long numbers should hold up.
  • High conversion rates suggest a high-scoring game (Over 2.5 Probability: 78%).

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 99%
Over 1.5 Goals 100%
Over 2.5 Goals 78%
Over 3.5 Goals 70%
Over 4.5 Goals 32%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 75%
Caernarfon Clean Sheet 10%
Connahs Q. Clean Sheet 10%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Caernarfon Connahs Q.
Matches Played 29 29
Wins 15 14
Draws 4 8
Losses 10 7
Goals Scored 2.07 1.83
Goals Conceded 1.48 1.03
Expected Goals (xG) 1.69 1.88
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.10 1.40

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Aug 2, 2026 Cymru Premier
Connahs Q. vs Caernarfon
1:2
Mar 13, 2026 Cymru Premier
Caernarfon vs Connahs Q.
2:4
Feb 6, 2026 Cymru Premier
Connahs Q. vs Caernarfon
1:1
Jan 13, 2026 Cymru Premier
Caernarfon vs Connahs Q.
2:2
Sep 23, 2025 Cymru Premier
Connahs Q. vs Caernarfon
1:2

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

Caernarfon Compare

Top Goalscorer Mooney P.
1 Goals
Assists Leader Owen R.
1 Ast
Avg xG / game 1.3
Avg xA / game 0.84

Connahs Q. Compare

Top Goalscorer Franklin H.
1 Goals
Assists Leader Edwards N.
1 Ast
Avg xG / game 1.71
Avg xA / game 1.04

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Caernarfon 83 / 100
Connahs Q. 10 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Caernarfon Connahs Q.

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick Caernarfon Win (1)
Secondary Pick Over 2.5 Goals or BTTS Yes
Correct Score 6:1
BTTS Outcome Yes (GG)
Over/Under Pick Over 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Caernarfon scored in 83% of their last 29 games.

Historical meetings average 3.60 goals per match.

Connahs Q.'s defensive record shows goals conceded in 69% of 29 matches.

Recent resilience: Caernarfon stayed unbeaten in 4 of the last 5 games.

Scoring Trends

Caernarfon VS Connahs Q.
2.75 Goals Scored 2.63
1.13 Goals Conceded 0.63
100% Over 1.5 100%
75% Over 2.5 75%
38% Over 3.5 25%

Recent Form & Match History

Caernarfon

(Home)
18 Sept
Caernarfon
9 : 1
Cambrian United
15 Sept
Llandudno FC
1 : 1
Caernarfon
11 Sept
Ammanford Town
0 : 5
Caernarfon
04 Sept
Caernarfon
3 : 0
Flint Town
31 Aug
Caernarfon
2 : 3
TNS
Page 1 of 6

Connahs Q.

(Away)
18 Sept
Connahs Q.
1 : 0
Cardiff Metropolitan University
15 Sept
Connahs Q.
3 : 0
Airbus UK Broughton FC
12 Sept
Colwyn Bay
2 : 1
Connahs Q.
04 Sept
Connahs Q.
1 : 1
Haverfordwest
31 Aug
Flint Town
1 : 2
Connahs Q.
Page 1 of 6

League Standings

Pos Team P W D L GD Pts
1 TNS 32 26 2 4 81:25 80
2 Connahs Q. 32 16 10 6 61:38 58
3 Barry Town 32 12 10 10 43:33 46
4 Caernarfon 32 12 9 11 56:47 45
5 Colwyn Bay 32 12 9 11 41:37 45
6 Penybont 32 11 8 13 39:49 41
Promotion - Champions League (Qualification)
Promotion - Conference League (Qualification)
Promotion - Cymru Premier 2025/2026 (Conference League - Play Offs)
Promotion - Conference League (Qualification)
Promotion - Cymru Premier 2025/2026 (Conference League - Play Offs)