Sport Picks
Match Events
15'
15'
Smith D.
21'
21'
Lock J.
67'
67'
Lock J.
AI Match Summary
First leg ended 4-0. The second leg ended 4-0.
Win Probability Meter
Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles
77%
15%
8%
Draw rate projection: 15% Favored: Caernarfon
Model Confidence
Aggregate indicator score
77%
/ Very High Confidence
- Look at the last few games and Caernarfon come out ahead of Penrhyncoch on wins alone.
- 77% — that's where the model lands on Caernarfon taking it.
- Caernarfon have the better recent form, but knockout football is a different beast — one bad day ends the campaign.
- Historical meetings favor Caernarfon, who have won 2 of the last 3 encounters.
- High conversion rates suggest a high-scoring game (Over 2.5 Probability: 78%).
- Caernarfon have won 3 of the last 3 meetings between these two.
Goal Probability Engine
Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories
Over 0.5 Goals 99%
Over 1.5 Goals 94%
Over 2.5 Goals 78%
Over 3.5 Goals 70%
Over 4.5 Goals 32%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 32.8%
Caernarfon Clean Sheet 68%
Penrhyncoch Clean Sheet 10%
Recent Team Form Analysis
Averages per match over historical game filters
| Metric | Caernarfon | Penrhyncoch |
|---|---|---|
| Matches Played | 31 | 29 |
| Wins | 15 | 11 |
| Draws | 5 | 3 |
| Losses | 11 | 15 |
| Goals Scored | 1.77 | 1.45 |
| Goals Conceded | 1.52 | 2 |
| Expected Goals (xG) | 1.88 | 1.50 |
| Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) | 1.10 | 1.40 |
H2H
Historical prediction success rates across key markets
Nov 22, 2025 FA Cup
Caernarfon vs Penrhyncoch
4:0
Dec 16, 2017 Cymru Alliance
Caernarfon vs Penrhyncoch
5:0
Aug 12, 2017 Cymru Alliance
Penrhyncoch vs Caernarfon
1:2
Key Player Impact Analysis
Key performers and expected goal involvement factors
Caernarfon Compare
Top Goalscorer Lock J.
3 Goals Assists Leader Smith D.
1 Ast
Avg xG / game 1.45
Avg xA / game 0.94
Penrhyncoch Compare
Avg xG / game 1.36
Avg xA / game 0.83
SokaPicks Momentum Index
Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)
Caernarfon 95 / 100
Penrhyncoch 10 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).
Attack & Defence Capability Index
Caernarfon Penrhyncoch
AI Prediction Engine Forecast
Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets
Primary Pick Caernarfon Win (1)
Secondary Pick Over 2.5 Goals or BTTS No
Correct Score 4:0
BTTS Outcome No (NG)
Over/Under Pick Over 2.5
SokaPicks Smart Insights
Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system
Caernarfon found the back of the net in 81% of recent matches (31 games).
These sides typically produce 4.00 goals when they meet.
Defensive concern: Penrhyncoch conceded in 79% of 29 recent games.
Solid form: Caernarfon remains unbeaten in 3 of 5 recent matches.
Scoring Trends
Caernarfon VS Penrhyncoch
1.63 Goals Scored 1.25
1.75 Goals Conceded 2.13
100% Over 1.5 88%
88% Over 2.5 75%
25% Over 3.5 63%
Recent Form & Match History
Caernarfon
(Home) 31 Aug
Caernarfon
2 : 3 TNS
28 Aug
Holywell Town FC
3 : 5 Caernarfon
21 Aug
Trefelin
0 : 2 Caernarfon
15 Aug
Caernarfon
3 : 0 Colwyn Bay
07 Aug
Caernarfon
1 : 2 Penybont
Page 1 of 7
31 Aug
Caernarfon
2 : 3 TNS
15 Aug
Caernarfon
3 : 0 Colwyn Bay
07 Aug
Caernarfon
1 : 2 Penybont
09 Jul
Caernarfon
0 : 5 Levadia
18 Apr
Caernarfon
2 : 0 Penybont
Page 1 of 3
Penrhyncoch
(Away) 31 Aug
Guilsfield
4 : 0 Penrhyncoch
28 Aug
Penrhyncoch
2 : 2 Denbigh
22 Aug
Brickfield Rangers
2 : 0 Penrhyncoch
08 Aug
Newtown
5 : 0 Penrhyncoch
01 Aug
Penrhyncoch
1 : 3 Porthmadog
Page 1 of 6
31 Aug
Guilsfield
4 : 0 Penrhyncoch
22 Aug
Brickfield Rangers
2 : 0 Penrhyncoch
08 Aug
Newtown
5 : 0 Penrhyncoch
06 Apr
Caersws FC
1 : 2 Penrhyncoch
03 Apr
Denbigh
1 : 0 Penrhyncoch
Page 1 of 4
Tournament Bracket & Draw
1/64-finals
Porthmadog 3
Denbigh 2
TBD -
Buckley -
Port Talbot 2
Seven Sisters 1
Afan Lido 3
Evans Williams 2
Pwllheli 1
Rhyl 3
Brickfield Rangers 3
NFA 1
Llantwit Major 2
Baglan Dragons 0
Cwmbran Town 5
Ynyshir Albions 4
Llanelli -
TBD -
TBD -
Haverfordwest -
Aberystwyth -
TBD -
TBD -
Barry Town -
Caerphilly 1
Caldicot 3
Penrhiwceiber Rangers 7
Pentwynmawr Ath 0
Saltney Town 3
Gresford 7
Llanrug 4
Ruthin Town 3
Cardiff Metropolitan University -
TBD -
Taffs Well 2
Abertillery Excelsiors 1
Mold Alexandra -
TBD -
TBD -
TNS -
Newtown -
TBD -
TBD -
Caernarfon -
Llannefydd 5
Llanberis FC 1
Penrhyncoch 2
Sychdyn Utd 0
Llwydcoed 3
Lliswerry 1
Pill -
Treowen -
Pontypridd United -
TBD -
Rhayader 1
Cefn Cribwr 4
Carmarthen Town -
TBD -
TBD -
Trethomas Bluebirds -
Llanfair United 1
Kinmel Bay 2
TBD -
Colwyn Bay -
Goytre Utd 2
Ammanford Town 1
TBD -
Cambrian United -
Briton Ferry -
TBD -
TBD -
Penybont -
Bow Street 4
Cefn Albion 2
TBD -
Flint Town -
Holyhead 4
Forden Utd 0
TBD -
Airbus UK Broughton FC -
Cwmbach Royal Stars 3
Garden Village 4
Tredegar Town 1
Glynneath Town 3
Broughton Utd 2
Welshpool 1
Berriew FC 0
Trearddur Bay 3
Newport City -
TBD -
Penygraig Utd 3
Cwm Welfare 2
Blaenavon Blues 4
Canton 1
Pontyclun FC 4
Tata Steel 1
St. Asaph 0
Bangor 1876 6
TBD -
Guilsfield -
Holywell Town FC -
TBD -
Rhostyllen 5
Nefyn United 2
Dinas Powys 3
Afan United 1
Cardiff Draconians 4
Cwmbran Celtic 2
Abercarn United 1
Pure Swansea 2
TBD -
Trefelin -
Caersws FC 6
Hawarden Rangers 1
Dolgellau Athletic 8
Queens Park 3
Penydarren 0
Caerau Ely 5
Morriston Town 1
Clydach 0
Llandudno FC -
TBD -
TBD -
Flint Mountain -
Bala -
TBD -
TBD -
Connahs Q. -
1/32-finals
Porthmadog 1
Buckley 0
Port Talbot 3
Afan Lido 1
Rhyl 1
Brickfield Rangers 0
Llantwit Major 1
Cwmbran Town 2
Llanelli 3
Haverfordwest 0
Aberystwyth 0
Barry Town 5
Caldicot 0
Penrhiwceiber Rangers 2
Gresford 9
Llanrug 0
Cardiff Metropolitan University 5
Taffs Well 1
Mold Alexandra 1
TNS 2
Newtown 0
Caernarfon 3
Llannefydd 1
Penrhyncoch 2
Llwydcoed 2
Treowen 5
Pontypridd United 3
Cefn Cribwr 1
Carmarthen Town 5
Trethomas Bluebirds 1
Kinmel Bay 0
Colwyn Bay 5
Goytre Utd 0
Cambrian United 6
Briton Ferry 0
Penybont 5
Bow Street 0
Flint Town 3
Holyhead 2
Airbus UK Broughton FC 5
Garden Village 2
Glynneath Town 4
Broughton Utd 0
Trearddur Bay 6
Newport City 3
Penygraig Utd 1
Blaenavon Blues 4
Pontyclun FC 2
Bangor 1876 2
Guilsfield 1
Holywell Town FC 3
Rhostyllen 2
Dinas Powys 1
Cardiff Draconians 3
Pure Swansea 1
Trefelin 6
Caersws FC 0
Dolgellau Athletic 1
Caerau Ely 3
Morriston Town 0
Llandudno FC 3
Flint Mountain 0
Bala 0
Connahs Q. 3
1/16-finals
Porthmadog 3
Port Talbot 2
Rhyl 3
Cwmbran Town 2
Llanelli 0
Barry Town 6
Penrhiwceiber Rangers 0
Gresford 3
Cardiff Metropolitan University 2
TNS 1
Caernarfon 4
Penrhyncoch 0
Treowen 1
Pontypridd United 2
Carmarthen Town 1
Colwyn Bay 3
Cambrian United 1
Penybont 3
Flint Town 1
Airbus UK Broughton FC 0
Glynneath Town 2
Trearddur Bay 5
Newport City 3
Blaenavon Blues 2
Bangor 1876 2
Holywell Town FC 1
Cardiff Draconians 3
Trefelin 4
Dolgellau Athletic 0
Caerau Ely 2
Llandudno FC 2
Connahs Q. 1
1/8-finals
Porthmadog 1
Rhyl 2
Barry Town 4
Gresford 0
Cardiff Metropolitan University 2
Caernarfon 4
Pontypridd United 0
Colwyn Bay 3
Penybont 0
Flint Town 1
Trearddur Bay 5
Newport City 3
Bangor 1876 2
Trefelin 0
Caerau Ely 2
Llandudno FC 1
Quarter-finals
Rhyl 2
Barry Town 1
Caernarfon 4
Colwyn Bay 1
Flint Town 3
Trearddur Bay 0
Bangor 1876 3
Caerau Ely 1
Semi-finals
Rhyl 1
Caernarfon 2
Flint Town 5
Bangor 1876 1
Final
Caernarfon 3
Flint Town 0
