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Caernarfon vs TNS

Wales Wales

Cymru Premier 2025/2026 The Oval, Caernarfon
Our Tip

Match Events

10' Event
Williams D.
12' Event
Clark B.
26'
Godsmark-Ford H.

AI Match Summary

The Cymru Premier 2025/2026 game between Caernarfon and TNS finished 0-4, a result that aligned with the model's pre-match lean toward TNS.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

38%
Caernarfon
15%
Draws
47%
TNS
Draw rate projection: 15% Favored: TNS

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

38% / Low Confidence
  • Caernarfon haven't matched TNS's recent run of results.
  • Hard to split these two; draw probability sits at 39%.
  • Regular Cymru Premier 2025/2026 form gives a decent read on both sides.
  • High conversion rates suggest a high-scoring game (Over 2.5 Probability: 78%).
  • History favors TNS here — 5 wins from the last 5 head-to-heads.

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 92%
Over 1.5 Goals 82%
Over 2.5 Goals 78%
Over 3.5 Goals 38%
Over 4.5 Goals 17%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 69.4%
Caernarfon Clean Sheet 13%
TNS Clean Sheet 10%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Caernarfon TNS
Matches Played 28 28
Wins 15 19
Draws 3 3
Losses 10 6
Goals Scored 1.93 1.79
Goals Conceded 1.54 0.82
Expected Goals (xG) 1.69 1.69
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.10 1.40

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Aug 31, 2026 Cymru Premier
Caernarfon vs TNS
2:3
Mar 27, 2026 Cymru Premier
Caernarfon vs TNS
0:4
Feb 20, 2026 Cymru Premier
TNS vs Caernarfon
2:1
Nov 28, 2025 Cymru Premier
TNS vs Caernarfon
2:0
Nov 4, 2025 League Cup
TNS vs Caernarfon
3:0

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

Caernarfon Compare

Avg xG / game 1.3
Avg xA / game 0.84

TNS Compare

Top Goalscorer Williams D.
1 Goals
Assists Leader Clark B.
1 Ast
Avg xG / game 1.54
Avg xA / game 0.94

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Caernarfon 30 / 100
TNS 30 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Caernarfon TNS

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick Caernarfon Win (1)
Secondary Pick Over 2.5 Goals or BTTS Yes
Correct Score 2:1
BTTS Outcome Yes (GG)
Over/Under Pick Over 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Caernarfon scored in 82% of their last 28 games.

These sides typically produce 3.40 goals when they meet.

Caernarfon has registered 4 games unbeaten in their last 5 outings.

TNS's defensive record shows goals conceded in 57% of 28 matches.

Scoring Trends

Caernarfon VS TNS
2.88 Goals Scored 2.25
1.13 Goals Conceded 0.5
100% Over 1.5 63%
88% Over 2.5 38%
38% Over 3.5 38%

Recent Form & Match History

Caernarfon

(Home)
11 Sept
Ammanford Town
0 : 5
Caernarfon
04 Sept
Caernarfon
3 : 0
Flint Town
31 Aug
Caernarfon
2 : 3
TNS
28 Aug
Holywell Town FC
3 : 5
Caernarfon
21 Aug
Trefelin
0 : 2
Caernarfon
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TNS

(Away)
11 Sept
Airbus UK Broughton FC
0 : 2
TNS
05 Sept
TNS
1 : 0
Barry Town
31 Aug
Caernarfon
2 : 3
TNS
28 Aug
TNS
5 : 1
Colwyn Bay
21 Aug
Cardiff Metropolitan University
0 : 5
TNS
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League Standings

Pos Team P W D L GD Pts
1 TNS 32 26 2 4 81:25 80
2 Connahs Q. 32 16 10 6 61:38 58
3 Barry Town 32 12 10 10 43:33 46
4 Caernarfon 32 12 9 11 56:47 45
5 Colwyn Bay 32 12 9 11 41:37 45
6 Penybont 32 11 8 13 39:49 41
Promotion - Champions League (Qualification)
Promotion - Conference League (Qualification)
Promotion - Cymru Premier 2025/2026 (Conference League - Play Offs)
Promotion - Conference League (Qualification)
Promotion - Cymru Premier 2025/2026 (Conference League - Play Offs)