Sport Picks
Caerphilly vs Carmarthen Stars Prediction & H2H Stats
Wales
FA Cup 2017/2018 
AI Match Summary
This match ends 4-1, with Caerphilly advancing. Cup football at its most decisive.
Win Probability Meter
Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles
40%
25%
35%
Draw rate projection: 25% Favored: Caerphilly
Model Confidence
Aggregate indicator score
40%
/ Low Confidence
- Caerphilly carry the better recent record into this one.
- Model gives Caerphilly a 40% chance of winning this.
- Caerphilly have the better recent form, but knockout football is a different beast — one bad day ends the campaign.
- Historical meetings favor Caerphilly, who have won 1 of the last 1 encounters.
- High conversion rates suggest a high-scoring game (Over 2.5 Probability: 92%).
Goal Probability Engine
Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories
Over 0.5 Goals 99%
Over 1.5 Goals 94%
Over 2.5 Goals 92%
Over 3.5 Goals 75%
Over 4.5 Goals 34%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 77.8%
Caerphilly Clean Sheet 12%
Carmarthen Stars Clean Sheet 10%
Recent Team Form Analysis
Averages per match over historical game filters
| Metric | Caerphilly | Carmarthen Stars |
|---|---|---|
| Matches Played | 13 | 1 |
| Wins | 3 | 0 |
| Draws | 2 | 0 |
| Losses | 8 | 1 |
| Goals Scored | 1.23 | 1 |
| Goals Conceded | 2.15 | 4 |
| Expected Goals (xG) | 2.50 | 1.75 |
| Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) | 1.10 | 1.40 |
H2H
Historical prediction success rates across key markets
Oct 7, 2017 FAW Welsh Cup
Caerphilly vs Carmarthen Stars
4:1
SokaPicks Momentum Index
Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)
Caerphilly 38 / 100
Carmarthen Stars 26 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).
Attack & Defence Capability Index
Caerphilly Carmarthen Stars
AI Prediction Engine Forecast
Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets
Primary Pick Caerphilly Win (1)
Secondary Pick Over 2.5 Goals or BTTS Yes
Correct Score 2:1
BTTS Outcome Yes (GG)
Over/Under Pick Over 2.5
SokaPicks Smart Insights
Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system
Defensive concern: Carmarthen Stars conceded in 100% of 1 recent games.
Historical meetings average 5.00 goals per match.
Caerphilly scored in 69% of their last 13 games.
Caerphilly has registered 3 games unbeaten in their last 5 outings.
Scoring Trends
Caerphilly VS Carmarthen Stars
1 Goals Scored 1
2.5 Goals Conceded 4
88% Over 1.5 100%
88% Over 2.5 100%
50% Over 3.5 100%
Recent Form & Match History
Caerphilly
(Home) 25 Sept
Caerphilly
1 : 2 Pontypridd United
12 Sept
Caerphilly
2 : 3 Aberystwyth
04 Sept
Trethomas Bluebirds
2 : 2 Caerphilly
31 Aug
Baglan Dragons
0 : 1 Caerphilly
22 Aug
Caerphilly
2 : 1 Ynyshir Albions
Page 1 of 3
25 Sept
Caerphilly
1 : 2 Pontypridd United
12 Sept
Caerphilly
2 : 3 Aberystwyth
22 Aug
Caerphilly
2 : 1 Ynyshir Albions
07 Aug
Caerphilly
0 : 0 Cardiff Draconians
20 Sept
Caerphilly
1 : 3 Caldicot
Page 1 of 2
Carmarthen Stars
(Away) 07 Oct
Caerphilly
4 : 1 Carmarthen Stars
07 Oct
Caerphilly
4 : 1 Carmarthen Stars
Tournament Bracket & Draw
1/64-finals
Aberystwyth -
TBD -
TBD -
TBD -
TBD -
TBD -
TBD -
Bala -
Penybont 1
Undy 0
Ynysygerwn 1
Monmouth 4
TBD -
TBD -
TBD -
Cardiff Metropolitan University -
Airbus UK Broughton FC 3
Bow Street 0
Llanrwst United 0
Saltney Town 6
Briton Ferry 3
Goytre Utd 1
Caldicot 2
Goytre AFC 3
Ammanford Town 1
Aberdare Town 0
Taffs Well 2
Llantwit Major 3
TBD -
TBD -
TBD -
Carmarthen Town -
Llandudno FC -
TBD -
TBD -
TBD -
Conwy Borough 5
Bodedern 1
Carno FC 0
Gresford 4
Prestatyn -
TBD -
TBD -
TBD -
Brickfield Rangers 1
Chirk AAA FC 0
Meliden 0
Ruthin Town 4
Flint Town 3
Llanfair United 0
Llanrug 0
Llay Welfare 1
Llandudno Albion 3
Rhyl 2
Llanidloes Town 1
Buckley 2
Guilsfield 4
Mold Alexandra 0
Corwen 0
Holywell Town FC 3
TBD -
TBD -
TBD -
Newtown -
Bangor City -
TBD -
TBD -
TBD -
Bridgend Street 4
Machen 3
Rhayader 1
Cwmamman United 3
Cefn Druids -
TBD -
TBD -
TBD -
Caersws FC -
Prestatyn Sports -
Queens Park 0
Llanrhaeadr 3
Pontypridd United 2
Cambrian United 1
Pontyclun FC 0
Pencoed 1
Aberbargoed Buds 2
Port Talbot 0
Croesyceiliog FC 1
Haverfordwest 2
Llandudno Junction 3
Gaerwen 1
Holyhead 3
Denbigh 4
STM Sports 5
Afan Lido 2
Cardiff Corries 0
Penydarren 4
TNS -
TBD -
TBD -
TBD -
Caerphilly 4
Carmarthen Stars 1
Garden Village 3
Penrhyncoch 4
Barry Town -
TBD -
TBD -
TBD -
Berriew FC 4
Abermule 0
Lex Glyndwr XI 1
Caernarfon 5
Porthmadog 3
Penyffordd 0
Mochdre Sports 1
Penley 2
Ton Pentre 2
Cardiff Draconians 1
Abergavenny Town 1
Panteg 3
Cwmbran Celtic 1
Caerau Ely 0
Aberaeron 1
Llanelli 6
TBD -
TBD -
TBD -
Connahs Q. -
1/32-finals
Aberystwyth -
TBD -
TBD -
Bala -
Penybont 2
Monmouth 1
TBD -
Cardiff Metropolitan University -
Airbus UK Broughton FC 4
Saltney Town 0
Briton Ferry 1
Goytre AFC 2
Ammanford Town 2
Llantwit Major 1
TBD -
Carmarthen Town -
Llandudno FC -
TBD -
Conwy Borough 1
Gresford 5
Prestatyn -
TBD -
Brickfield Rangers 2
Ruthin Town 4
Flint Town 3
Llay Welfare 1
Llandudno Albion 1
Buckley 2
Guilsfield 3
Holywell Town FC 2
TBD -
Newtown -
Bangor City -
TBD -
Bridgend Street 0
Cwmamman United 3
Cefn Druids -
TBD -
Caersws FC 1
Llanrhaeadr 2
Pontypridd United 3
Pencoed 1
Aberbargoed Buds 0
Haverfordwest 2
Llandudno Junction 3
Denbigh 2
STM Sports 1
Penydarren 2
TNS -
TBD -
Caerphilly 2
Penrhyncoch 4
Barry Town -
TBD -
Berriew FC 1
Caernarfon 4
Porthmadog 10
Penley 0
Ton Pentre 1
Panteg 2
Cwmbran Celtic 2
Llanelli 1
TBD -
Connahs Q. -
1/16-finals
Aberystwyth 4
Bala 0
Penybont 1
Cardiff Metropolitan University 3
Airbus UK Broughton FC 3
Goytre AFC 2
Ammanford Town 2
Carmarthen Town 3
Llandudno FC 4
Gresford 0
Prestatyn 0
Ruthin Town 3
Flint Town 1
Buckley 0
Guilsfield 0
Newtown 2
Bangor City 4
Cwmamman United 3
Cefn Druids 2
Llanrhaeadr 3
Pontypridd United 3
Haverfordwest 1
Llandudno Junction 0
Penydarren 4
TNS 6
Penrhyncoch 0
Barry Town 0
Caernarfon 2
Porthmadog 7
Panteg 2
Cwmbran Celtic 0
Connahs Q. 3
1/8-finals
Aberystwyth 1
Cardiff Metropolitan University 0
Airbus UK Broughton FC 1
Carmarthen Town 4
Llandudno FC 4
Ruthin Town 3
Flint Town 2
Newtown 3
Bangor City 3
Llanrhaeadr 2
Pontypridd United 1
Penydarren 2
TNS 3
Caernarfon 1
Porthmadog 1
Connahs Q. 3
Quarter-finals
Aberystwyth 3
Carmarthen Town 1
Llandudno FC 0
Newtown 2
Bangor City 7
Penydarren 0
TNS 1
Connahs Q. 2
Semi-finals
Aberystwyth 2
Newtown 1
Bangor City 1
Connahs Q. 6
Final
Aberystwyth 1
Connahs Q. 4
