Sport Picks
AI Match Summary
This match ends 2-4, with Penrhyncoch advancing. Cup football at its most decisive.
Win Probability Meter
Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles
34%
15%
51%
Draw rate projection: 15% Favored: Penrhyncoch
Model Confidence
Aggregate indicator score
34%
/ Low Confidence
- Look at the last few games and Penrhyncoch come out ahead of Caerphilly on wins alone.
- Model gives Caerphilly a 34% chance of winning this.
- Penrhyncoch arrive in better shape, but cup ties don't always follow form.
- Historical meetings favor Penrhyncoch, who have won 1 of the last 1 encounters.
- High conversion rates suggest a high-scoring game (Over 2.5 Probability: 78%).
Goal Probability Engine
Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories
Over 0.5 Goals 92%
Over 1.5 Goals 82%
Over 2.5 Goals 78%
Over 3.5 Goals 19%
Over 4.5 Goals 9%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 74.2%
Caerphilly Clean Sheet 14%
Penrhyncoch Clean Sheet 19%
Recent Team Form Analysis
Averages per match over historical game filters
| Metric | Caerphilly | Penrhyncoch |
|---|---|---|
| Matches Played | 9 | 28 |
| Wins | 2 | 12 |
| Draws | 1 | 2 |
| Losses | 6 | 14 |
| Goals Scored | 1.11 | 1.57 |
| Goals Conceded | 2.33 | 1.93 |
| Expected Goals (xG) | 0.76 | 1.57 |
| Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) | 1.10 | 1.40 |
H2H
Historical prediction success rates across key markets
Nov 4, 2017 FA Cup
Caerphilly vs Penrhyncoch
2:4
SokaPicks Momentum Index
Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)
Caerphilly 39 / 100
Penrhyncoch 28 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).
Attack & Defence Capability Index
Caerphilly Penrhyncoch
AI Prediction Engine Forecast
Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets
Primary Pick Caerphilly Win (1)
Secondary Pick Over 2.5 Goals or BTTS Yes
Correct Score 2:1
BTTS Outcome Yes (GG)
Over/Under Pick Over 2.5
SokaPicks Smart Insights
Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system
These sides typically produce 6.00 goals when they meet.
Penrhyncoch let in goals in 79% of their last 28 matches.
Difficult form: Penrhyncoch registered 3 defeats in their last 5 games.
Caerphilly scored in 56% of their last 9 games.
Scoring Trends
Caerphilly VS Penrhyncoch
0.4 Goals Scored 1.75
1.4 Goals Conceded 1.13
60% Over 1.5 63%
60% Over 2.5 50%
0% Over 3.5 38%
Recent Form & Match History
Caerphilly
(Home) 22 Aug
Caerphilly
2 : 1 Ynyshir Albions
15 Aug
Treowen
3 : 0 Caerphilly
07 Aug
Caerphilly
0 : 0 Cardiff Draconians
01 Aug
Pontardawe
3 : 0 Caerphilly
20 Sept
Caerphilly
1 : 3 Caldicot
Page 1 of 2
22 Aug
Caerphilly
2 : 1 Ynyshir Albions
07 Aug
Caerphilly
0 : 0 Cardiff Draconians
20 Sept
Caerphilly
1 : 3 Caldicot
20 Jun
Caerphilly
0 : 4 Caerau Ely
04 Nov
Caerphilly
2 : 4 Penrhyncoch
Page 1 of 2
Penrhyncoch
(Away) 22 Aug
Brickfield Rangers
2 : 0 Penrhyncoch
08 Aug
Newtown
5 : 0 Penrhyncoch
01 Aug
Penrhyncoch
1 : 3 Porthmadog
18 Apr
Penrhyncoch
3 : 0 Rhyl
11 Apr
Penrhyncoch
4 : 1 Gresford
Page 1 of 6
22 Aug
Brickfield Rangers
2 : 0 Penrhyncoch
08 Aug
Newtown
5 : 0 Penrhyncoch
06 Apr
Caersws FC
1 : 2 Penrhyncoch
03 Apr
Denbigh
1 : 0 Penrhyncoch
21 Mar
Flint Mountain
2 : 3 Penrhyncoch
Page 1 of 4
Tournament Bracket & Draw
1/64-finals
Aberystwyth -
TBD -
TBD -
TBD -
TBD -
TBD -
TBD -
Bala -
Penybont 1
Undy 0
Ynysygerwn 1
Monmouth 4
TBD -
TBD -
TBD -
Cardiff Metropolitan University -
Airbus UK Broughton FC 3
Bow Street 0
Llanrwst United 0
Saltney Town 6
Briton Ferry 3
Goytre Utd 1
Caldicot 2
Goytre AFC 3
Ammanford Town 1
Aberdare Town 0
Taffs Well 2
Llantwit Major 3
TBD -
TBD -
TBD -
Carmarthen Town -
Llandudno FC -
TBD -
TBD -
TBD -
Conwy Borough 5
Bodedern 1
Carno FC 0
Gresford 4
Prestatyn -
TBD -
TBD -
TBD -
Brickfield Rangers 1
Chirk AAA FC 0
Meliden 0
Ruthin Town 4
Flint Town 3
Llanfair United 0
Llanrug 0
Llay Welfare 1
Llandudno Albion 3
Rhyl 2
Llanidloes Town 1
Buckley 2
Guilsfield 4
Mold Alexandra 0
Corwen 0
Holywell Town FC 3
TBD -
TBD -
TBD -
Newtown -
Bangor City -
TBD -
TBD -
TBD -
Bridgend Street 4
Machen 3
Rhayader 1
Cwmamman United 3
Cefn Druids -
TBD -
TBD -
TBD -
Caersws FC -
Prestatyn Sports -
Queens Park 0
Llanrhaeadr 3
Pontypridd United 2
Cambrian United 1
Pontyclun FC 0
Pencoed 1
Aberbargoed Buds 2
Port Talbot 0
Croesyceiliog FC 1
Haverfordwest 2
Llandudno Junction 3
Gaerwen 1
Holyhead 3
Denbigh 4
STM Sports 5
Afan Lido 2
Cardiff Corries 0
Penydarren 4
TNS -
TBD -
TBD -
TBD -
Caerphilly 4
Carmarthen Stars 1
Garden Village 3
Penrhyncoch 4
Barry Town -
TBD -
TBD -
TBD -
Berriew FC 4
Abermule 0
Lex Glyndwr XI 1
Caernarfon 5
Porthmadog 3
Penyffordd 0
Mochdre Sports 1
Penley 2
Ton Pentre 2
Cardiff Draconians 1
Abergavenny Town 1
Panteg 3
Cwmbran Celtic 1
Caerau Ely 0
Aberaeron 1
Llanelli 6
TBD -
TBD -
TBD -
Connahs Q. -
1/32-finals
Aberystwyth -
TBD -
TBD -
Bala -
Penybont 2
Monmouth 1
TBD -
Cardiff Metropolitan University -
Airbus UK Broughton FC 4
Saltney Town 0
Briton Ferry 1
Goytre AFC 2
Ammanford Town 2
Llantwit Major 1
TBD -
Carmarthen Town -
Llandudno FC -
TBD -
Conwy Borough 1
Gresford 5
Prestatyn -
TBD -
Brickfield Rangers 2
Ruthin Town 4
Flint Town 3
Llay Welfare 1
Llandudno Albion 1
Buckley 2
Guilsfield 3
Holywell Town FC 2
TBD -
Newtown -
Bangor City -
TBD -
Bridgend Street 0
Cwmamman United 3
Cefn Druids -
TBD -
Caersws FC 1
Llanrhaeadr 2
Pontypridd United 3
Pencoed 1
Aberbargoed Buds 0
Haverfordwest 2
Llandudno Junction 3
Denbigh 2
STM Sports 1
Penydarren 2
TNS -
TBD -
Caerphilly 2
Penrhyncoch 4
Barry Town -
TBD -
Berriew FC 1
Caernarfon 4
Porthmadog 10
Penley 0
Ton Pentre 1
Panteg 2
Cwmbran Celtic 2
Llanelli 1
TBD -
Connahs Q. -
1/16-finals
Aberystwyth 4
Bala 0
Penybont 1
Cardiff Metropolitan University 3
Airbus UK Broughton FC 3
Goytre AFC 2
Ammanford Town 2
Carmarthen Town 3
Llandudno FC 4
Gresford 0
Prestatyn 0
Ruthin Town 3
Flint Town 1
Buckley 0
Guilsfield 0
Newtown 2
Bangor City 4
Cwmamman United 3
Cefn Druids 2
Llanrhaeadr 3
Pontypridd United 3
Haverfordwest 1
Llandudno Junction 0
Penydarren 4
TNS 6
Penrhyncoch 0
Barry Town 0
Caernarfon 2
Porthmadog 7
Panteg 2
Cwmbran Celtic 0
Connahs Q. 3
1/8-finals
Aberystwyth 1
Cardiff Metropolitan University 0
Airbus UK Broughton FC 1
Carmarthen Town 4
Llandudno FC 4
Ruthin Town 3
Flint Town 2
Newtown 3
Bangor City 3
Llanrhaeadr 2
Pontypridd United 1
Penydarren 2
TNS 3
Caernarfon 1
Porthmadog 1
Connahs Q. 3
Quarter-finals
Aberystwyth 3
Carmarthen Town 1
Llandudno FC 0
Newtown 2
Bangor City 7
Penydarren 0
TNS 1
Connahs Q. 2
Semi-finals
Aberystwyth 2
Newtown 1
Bangor City 1
Connahs Q. 6
Final
Aberystwyth 1
Connahs Q. 4
