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Calasancio vs Casalarreina CF - H2H Analysis, Preview & Predictions

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Tercera RFEF - Group 16
Our Tip

Match Events

8' Event
Saenz C.
44' Event
Beracoechea A.
(Penalty)
67' Event
Rojo A.

AI Match Summary

The Tercera RFEF - Group 16 game between Calasancio and Casalarreina CF finished 2-1, a result that aligned with the model's pre-match lean toward Calasancio.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

50%
Calasancio
20%
Draws
30%
Casalarreina CF
Draw rate projection: 20% Favored: Calasancio

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

50% / Medium Confidence
  • Look at the last few games and Casalarreina CF come out ahead of Calasancio on wins alone.
  • Calasancio are the model's pick here, at 50%.
  • This is a straightforward league game — the season-long numbers should hold up.
  • High conversion rates suggest a high-scoring game (Over 2.5 Probability: 78%).

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 92%
Over 1.5 Goals 82%
Over 2.5 Goals 78%
Over 3.5 Goals 56.5%
Over 4.5 Goals 25%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 70.6%
Calasancio Clean Sheet 10%
Casalarreina CF Clean Sheet 10%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Calasancio Casalarreina CF
Matches Played 29 34
Wins 5 13
Draws 7 3
Losses 17 18
Goals Scored 0.76 1.29
Goals Conceded 2.07 1.97
Expected Goals (xG) 1.33 1.88
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.10 1.40

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Oct 4, 2026 Tercera RFEF - Group 16
Calasancio vs Casalarreina CF
2:1
Mar 17, 2021 Tercera RFEF - Group 16
Calasancio vs Casalarreina CF
0:2
Nov 15, 2020 Tercera RFEF - Group 16
Casalarreina CF vs Calasancio
1:0
Feb 16, 2020 Tercera RFEF - Group 16
Calasancio vs Casalarreina CF
0:2
Sep 29, 2019 Tercera RFEF - Group 16
Casalarreina CF vs Calasancio
1:1

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

Calasancio Compare

Top Goalscorer Saenz C.
1 Goals
Avg xG / game 1.02
Avg xA / game 0.67

Casalarreina CF Compare

Top Goalscorer Rojo A.
1 Goals
Avg xG / game 1.71
Avg xA / game 1.04

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Calasancio 47 / 100
Casalarreina CF 22 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Calasancio Casalarreina CF

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick Calasancio Win (1)
Secondary Pick Over 2.5 Goals or BTTS Yes
Correct Score 2:1
BTTS Outcome Yes (GG)
Over/Under Pick Over 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Defensive concern: Casalarreina CF conceded in 88% of 34 recent games.

H2H data points to 2.00 goals as a typical output.

Calasancio went unbeaten in 3 of their last 5 games.

Difficult form: Casalarreina CF registered 4 defeats in their last 5 games.

Scoring Trends

Calasancio VS Casalarreina CF
1.17 Goals Scored 1.75
2 Goals Conceded 1.5
67% Over 1.5 75%
67% Over 2.5 63%
50% Over 3.5 63%

Recent Form & Match History

Calasancio

(Home)
04 Oct
Calasancio
2 : 1
Casalarreina CF
27 Sept
CD Calahorra
5 : 0
Calasancio
18 Sept
Calasancio
0 : 0
Anguiano
13 Sept
Haro Deportivo
4 : 3
Calasancio
06 Sept
Calasancio
2 : 2
Alfaro
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Casalarreina CF

(Away)
04 Oct
Calasancio
2 : 1
Casalarreina CF
26 Sept
Casalarreina CF
1 : 5
Agoncillo
18 Sept
Oyonesa
1 : 0
Casalarreina CF
13 Sept
Casalarreina CF
0 : 3
CDFC La Calzada
05 Sept
Pradejon
1 : 2
Casalarreina CF
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League Standings

Pos Team P W D L GD Pts
1 Haro Deportivo 5 4 1 0 12:6 13
2 Berceo 5 4 0 1 14:5 12
3 CDFC La Calzada 5 4 0 1 9:4 12
4 Alfaro 5 3 1 1 9:7 10
5 Pradejon 6 3 1 2 9:7 10
6 CD Calahorra 5 3 0 2 14:7 9
7 Agoncillo 5 2 2 1 12:8 8
8 Varea 5 1 4 0 4:3 7
9 San Marcial 5 1 3 1 4:4 6
10 Yague 5 2 0 3 5:8 6
11 Cenicero 5 1 2 2 6:7 5
12 Anguiano 5 1 2 2 5:6 5
13 Oyonesa 5 1 2 2 5:7 5
14 Comillas CF 5 1 2 2 3:5 5
15 Calasancio 5 1 2 2 7:12 5
16 River Ebro 6 1 1 4 6:15 4
17 Casalarreina CF 5 1 0 4 4:12 3
18 Vianes 5 0 1 4 5:10 1
Promotion - Tercera RFEF - Group 16 (Play Offs)