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Caldense vs Varginha

Brazil Brazil

Mineiro 2 2025
Our Tip

Match Events

3' Event
Mansur
16' Event
Igor Lemos
27'
Henrique Rocha

AI Match Summary

The Mineiro 2 2025 game between Caldense and Varginha finished 2-0, a result that aligned with the model's pre-match lean toward Caldense.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

0%
Caldense
30%
Draws
70%
Varginha
Draw rate projection: 30% Favored: Varginha

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

70% / High Confidence
  • Look at the last few games and Varginha come out ahead of Caldense on wins alone.
  • Win probability leans Varginha's way, sitting at 70%.
  • This is a straightforward league game — the season-long numbers should hold up.
  • Strong defensive structures favor a low-scoring, controlled fixture.

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 91%
Over 1.5 Goals 81.5%
Over 2.5 Goals 25%
Over 3.5 Goals 16.5%
Over 4.5 Goals 7%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 28.8%
Caldense Clean Sheet 19%
Varginha Clean Sheet 68%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Caldense Varginha
Matches Played 30 30
Wins 5 7
Draws 13 9
Losses 12 14
Goals Scored 0.7 0.87
Goals Conceded 1.03 1.37
Expected Goals (xG) 0.88 1.30
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.10 1.40

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Jun 8, 2025 Mineiro 2
Varginha vs Caldense
1:1
May 18, 2025 Mineiro 2
Caldense vs Varginha
2:0
Jun 1, 2024 Mineiro 2
Varginha vs Caldense
0:0
May 25, 2024 Mineiro 2
Caldense vs Varginha
1:0

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

Caldense Compare

Top Goalscorer Mansur
1 Goals
Assists Leader Igor Lemos
1 Ast
Avg xG / game 0.68
Avg xA / game 0.44

Varginha Compare

Avg xG / game 1.18
Avg xA / game 0.72

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Caldense 16 / 100
Varginha 77 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Caldense Varginha

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick Varginha Win (2)
Secondary Pick Under 2.5 Goals or BTTS No
Correct Score 0:1
BTTS Outcome No (NG)
Over/Under Pick Under 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Varginha has conceded goals in 80% of their last 30 outings.

Caldense's goal record stands at 53% scoring rate across 30 recent games.

Historical meetings average 1.25 goals per match.

Scoring Trends

Caldense VS Varginha
0.75 Goals Scored 1.6
1 Goals Conceded 1
63% Over 1.5 100%
13% Over 2.5 40%
13% Over 3.5 20%

Recent Form & Match History

Caldense

(Home)
12 Jul
Caldense
2 : 3
Uberaba
05 Jul
Boa
3 : 1
Caldense
01 Jul
Caldense
1 : 2
Patrocinense
27 Jun
Guarani-MG
2 : 0
Caldense
23 Jun
Mamore
1 : 0
Caldense
Page 1 of 6

Varginha

(Away)
21 Jun
URT
1 : 2
Varginha
15 Jun
Varginha
2 : 2
Uberaba
08 Jun
Varginha
1 : 1
Caldense
02 Jun
Mamore
1 : 1
Varginha
28 May
Patrocinense
0 : 2
Varginha
Page 1 of 6

League Standings (Group 1)

Pos Team P W D L GD Pts
1 Patrocinense 10 5 2 3 7:6 17
2 URT 10 4 4 2 11:8 16
3 Mamore 10 3 4 3 11:11 13
4 Uberaba 10 2 5 3 11:11 11
5 Caldense 10 2 5 3 9:10 11
6 Varginha 10 2 4 4 9:12 10
Promotion - Mineiro 2 2025 (Final Stage)
Relegation - Mineiro 3 2025 (Main)

League Standings (Group 2)

Pos Team P W D L GD Pts
1 Ipatinga 10 5 2 3 11:10 17
2 North Esporte Clube 10 4 4 2 17:13 16
3 Democrata SL 10 3 4 3 9:8 13
4 Valeriodoce 10 3 4 3 12:12 13
5 Guarani-MG 10 3 3 4 10:10 12
6 Nacional de Muriae 10 2 3 5 10:16 9
Promotion - Mineiro 2 2025 (Final Stage)
Relegation - Mineiro 3 2025 (Main)