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Canada vs Suriname

North & Central America North & Central America

CONCACAF Nations League 2024/2025 BMO Field, Toronto, ON
Our Tip

Match Events

24' Event
David J.
Assist: Miller K.
28'
Vaessen E.
30' Event
Shaffelburg J.
Assist: Bombito M.

AI Match Summary

This match ends 3-0, with Canada advancing. Cup football at its most decisive.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

41%
Canada
30%
Draws
29%
Suriname
Draw rate projection: 30% Favored: Canada

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

41% / Low Confidence
  • Look at the last few games and Canada come out ahead of Suriname on wins alone.
  • 41% chance of a draw — the model doesn't see a clear favorite.
  • Canada have the better recent form, but knockout football is a different beast — one bad day ends the campaign.
  • Historical meetings favor Canada, who have won 3 of the last 4 encounters.
  • High conversion rates suggest a high-scoring game (Over 2.5 Probability: 78%).
  • History favors Canada here — 4 wins from the last 4 head-to-heads.

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 92%
Over 1.5 Goals 82%
Over 2.5 Goals 78%
Over 3.5 Goals 26.5%
Over 4.5 Goals 12%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 28.400000000000002%
Canada Clean Sheet 68%
Suriname Clean Sheet 14%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Canada Suriname
Matches Played 30 30
Wins 15 10
Draws 8 9
Losses 7 11
Goals Scored 1.57 1.37
Goals Conceded 0.8 1.2
Expected Goals (xG) 1.07 0.99
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.10 1.40

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Nov 20, 2024 CONCACAF Nations League
Canada vs Suriname
3:0
Nov 15, 2024 CONCACAF Nations League
Suriname vs Canada
0:1
Jun 9, 2021 World Championship
Canada vs Suriname
4:0
Oct 11, 1977 World Championship
Canada vs Suriname
2:1

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

Canada Compare

Top Goalscorer Shaffelburg J.
2 Goals
Assists Leader David J.
1 Ast
Avg xG / game 0.82
Avg xA / game 0.54

Suriname Compare

Avg xG / game 0.9
Avg xA / game 0.55

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Canada 41 / 100
Suriname 31 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Canada Suriname

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick CAN Win (1)
Secondary Pick Over 2.5 Goals & BTTS No
Correct Score 3:0
BTTS Outcome No (NG)
Over/Under Pick Over 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Canada scored in 73% of their last 30 games.

Suriname's defensive record shows goals conceded in 73% of 30 matches.

Historical meetings average 2.75 goals per match.

Solid form: Canada remains unbeaten in 3 of 5 recent matches.

Scoring Trends

Canada VS Suriname
0.75 Goals Scored 1.6
0.38 Goals Conceded 1.4
25% Over 1.5 100%
13% Over 2.5 60%
13% Over 3.5 40%

Recent Form & Match History

Canada

(Home)
04 Jul
Canada
0 : 3
Morocco
28 Jun
South Africa
0 : 1
Canada
24 Jun
Switzerland
2 : 1
Canada
18 Jun
Canada
6 : 0
Qatar
12 Jun
Canada
1 : 1
Bosnia & Herzegovina
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Suriname

(Away)
26 Mar
Bolivia
2 : 1
Suriname
19 Nov
Guatemala
3 : 1
Suriname
13 Nov
Suriname
4 : 0
El Salvador
15 Oct
Panama
1 : 1
Suriname
10 Oct
Suriname
1 : 1
Guatemala
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Tournament Bracket & Draw

Quarter-finals
USA 5
Jamaica 2
Panama 3
Costa Rica 2
Canada 4
Suriname 0
Mexico 4
Honduras 2
Semi-finals
USA 0
Panama 1
Canada 0
Mexico 2
Final
Panama 1
Mexico 2
USA 1
Canada 2