Sport Picks

North & Central America

CONCACAF Nations League SoFi Stadium

USA

Our Tip

Summary Win Prob Goals Form H2H Tactics Players Indices Predictions Timeline Heatmaps Accuracy Compare

AI Match Summary

Canada play USA in the CONCACAF Nations League. It looks like a close match. Recently, Canada averaged 1.58 goals scored and 0.81 conceded. USA averaged 1.87 goals scored and 1.43 conceded. In past meetings, Canada won 3, USA won 2, and they drew 0. Their last match on Mar 23, 2025 ended 2:1. Our numbers estimate xG of 1.88 for Canada and 1.25 for USA. This points to a Canada double chance or over markets.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

45%

Canada

15%

Draws

40%

USA

Draw rate projection: 15% Favored: Canada

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

71% / Medium Confidence

Canada picked up more points recently compared to USA.
Model forecasts higher goal threat for the host (1.88 vs 1.25 xG).
Past meetings show a clear pattern favoring the home side.
High conversion rates suggest a high-scoring game (Over 2.5 Probability: 56%).

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 91%

Over 1.5 Goals 80%

Over 2.5 Goals 56%

Over 3.5 Goals 34%

Over 4.5 Goals 17%

Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 50%

Canada Clean Sheet 19%

USA Clean Sheet 10%

First Half Goal 72%

Second Half Goal 76%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric	Canada	USA
Matches Played	31	30
Wins	16	17
Draws	8	1
Losses	7	12
Goals Scored	1.58	1.87
Goals Conceded	0.81	1.43
Expected Goals (xG)	1.88	2.00
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA)	0.50	1.88

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Mar 23, 2025 CONCACAF Nations League

Canada vs USA

Possession: 57% - 54% Cards: 4 - 0

2:1

Sep 7, 2024 Friendly International

USA vs Canada

Possession: 51% - 43% Cards: 1 - 1

1:2

Jul 9, 2023 Gold Cup

USA vs Canada

Possession: 43% - 50% Cards: 4 - 4

3:2

Jun 19, 2023 CONCACAF Nations League

Canada vs USA

Possession: 52% - 40% Cards: 0 - 1

0:2

Jan 30, 2022 World Championship

Canada vs USA

Possession: 53% - 51% Cards: 1 - 1

2:0

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

Canada Compare

Top Goalscorer Oluwaseyi T.

1 Goals

Assists Leader David J.

1 Ast

Avg xG / game 1.45

Avg xA / game 0.94

USA Compare

Top Goalscorer Agyemang P.

1 Goals

Avg xG / game 1.82

Avg xA / game 1.11

Sokapicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Canada 44 / 100

USA 38 / 100

How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

Canada USA

Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick Double Chance: Canada or Draw (1X)

Secondary Pick Under 3.5 Goals

First Half Result Home Win (HT)

BTTS Outcome No (NG)

Over/Under Pick Over 2.5

Value Bet Detector (+EV)

Matches where our model probability exceeds implied bookmaker odds

1X2 Home Win

Value Edge +21.5%

2.70

Goals Over/Under Over 2.5 Goals

Value Edge +12%

2.00

*EV represents Expected Value. A positive value edge means the bookmaker has priced the selection significantly below its true statistical likelihood.

Attacking Heatmaps & Shot Locations

Dynamic heat overlays computed from tactical zone entries

Canada attacking → ← attacking USA

Sokapicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Canada scored in 74% of their last 31 games.

USA let in goals in 77% of their last 30 matches.

Games between these two average 3.00 goals.

Canada went unbeaten in 3 of their last 5 games.

USA lost 2 of their last 5 games.

Interactive Team Comparison Slider

Side-by-side comparison of team metrics

56 Points in last 5 52

1.88 Goals expected (xG) 2.00

0.50 Goals conceded expected (xGA) 1.88