Sport Picks
Cancun vs Tepatitlan de Morelos
Mexico
Liga de Expansion MX 2025/2026 Estadio Olímpico Andrés Quintana Roo, Cancún 
Match Events
28'
28'
Rodriguez J.
Assist: Campos K.
32'
32'
Reyes R.
36'
36'
Aguilar D.
AI Match Summary
The Liga de Expansion MX 2025/2026 game between Cancun and Tepatitlan de Morelos finished 2-2.
Win Probability Meter
Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles
27%
33%
40%
Draw rate projection: 33% Favored: Tepatitlan de Morelos
Model Confidence
Aggregate indicator score
70%
/ Medium Confidence
- Look at the last few games and Cancun come out ahead of Tepatitlan de Morelos on wins alone.
- Tepatitlan de Morelos are the model's pick here, at 40%.
- Regular Liga de Expansion MX 2025/2026 form gives a decent read on both sides.
- Strong defensive structures favor a low-scoring, controlled fixture.
Goal Probability Engine
Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories
Over 0.5 Goals 85%
Over 1.5 Goals 75%
Over 2.5 Goals 25%
Over 3.5 Goals 19%
Over 4.5 Goals 9%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 35.2%
Cancun Clean Sheet 16%
Tepatitlan de Morelos Clean Sheet 68%
Recent Team Form Analysis
Averages per match over historical game filters
| Metric | Cancun | Tepatitlan de Morelos |
|---|---|---|
| Matches Played | 29 | 30 |
| Wins | 12 | 11 |
| Draws | 9 | 9 |
| Losses | 8 | 10 |
| Goals Scored | 1 | 1.38 |
| Goals Conceded | 1.5 | 1.13 |
| Expected Goals (xG) | 1.00 | 1.38 |
| Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) | 1.50 | 1.13 |
H2H
Historical prediction success rates across key markets
Mar 29, 2026 Liga de Expansion MX
Cancun vs Tepatitlan de Morelos
2:2
Oct 18, 2025 Liga de Expansion MX
Tepatitlan de Morelos vs Cancun
1:2
Jan 18, 2025 Liga de Expansion MX
Tepatitlan de Morelos vs Cancun
1:1
Aug 3, 2024 Liga de Expansion MX
Cancun vs Tepatitlan de Morelos
2:0
Mar 19, 2024 Liga de Expansion MX
Cancun vs Tepatitlan de Morelos
2:0
Key Player Impact Analysis
Key performers and expected goal involvement factors
Cancun Compare
Top Goalscorer Rodriguez J.
1 Goals Avg xG / game 0.77
Avg xA / game 0.5
Tepatitlan de Morelos Compare
Top Goalscorer Ruiz A.
1 Goals Assists Leader Escoto A.
1 Ast
Avg xG / game 1.25
Avg xA / game 0.77
SokaPicks Momentum Index
Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)
Cancun 28 / 100
Tepatitlan de Morelos 50 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).
Attack & Defence Capability Index
Cancun Tepatitlan de Morelos
AI Prediction Engine Forecast
Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets
Primary Pick TEP Win (2)
Secondary Pick Under 2.5 Goals & BTTS No
Correct Score 0:1
BTTS Outcome No (NG)
Over/Under Pick Under 2.5
SokaPicks Smart Insights
Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system
Cancun found the back of the net in 83% of recent matches (29 games).
Tepatitlan de Morelos let in goals in 63% of their last 30 matches.
H2H data points to 2.60 goals as a typical output.
Tepatitlan de Morelos lost 3 of their last 5 games.
Scoring Trends
Cancun VS Tepatitlan de Morelos
1 Goals Scored 1.38
1.5 Goals Conceded 1.13
75% Over 1.5 75%
50% Over 2.5 25%
13% Over 3.5 25%
Recent Form & Match History
Cancun
(Home) 05 Jul
Cancun
0 : 3 UNAM Pumas
04 Jul
Cancun
1 : 0 Toluca
21 Jun
Cancun
1 : 4 Monterrey
03 May
Cancun
1 : 1 Jaiba Brava
01 May
Jaiba Brava
2 : 1 Cancun
Page 1 of 6
05 Jul
Cancun
0 : 3 UNAM Pumas
04 Jul
Cancun
1 : 0 Toluca
21 Jun
Cancun
1 : 4 Monterrey
03 May
Cancun
1 : 1 Jaiba Brava
27 Apr
Cancun
1 : 0 Tapatio
Page 1 of 4
Tepatitlan de Morelos
(Away) 01 Aug
Correcaminos
3 : 1 Tepatitlan de Morelos
25 Jul
Tepatitlan de Morelos
0 : 1 Alacranes de Durango
31 May
Jaiba Brava
4 : 3 Tepatitlan de Morelos
24 May
Tepatitlan de Morelos
3 : 1 Jaiba Brava
17 May
Tepatitlan de Morelos
1 : 0 Jaiba Brava
Page 1 of 6
01 Aug
Correcaminos
3 : 1 Tepatitlan de Morelos
31 May
Jaiba Brava
4 : 3 Tepatitlan de Morelos
10 May
Jaiba Brava
0 : 0 Tepatitlan de Morelos
01 May
Zacatecas Mineros
1 : 1 Tepatitlan de Morelos
23 Apr
Atlante
2 : 0 Tepatitlan de Morelos
Page 1 of 3
League Standings
| Pos | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Tepatitlan de Morelos | 14 | 7 | 5 | 2 | 21:10 | 26 |
| 2 | Cancun | 14 | 7 | 4 | 3 | 24:17 | 25 |
| 3 | Club Atletico Morelia | 14 | 7 | 2 | 5 | 18:12 | 23 |
| 4 | Atletico La Paz | 14 | 5 | 7 | 2 | 22:12 | 22 |
| 5 | Jaiba Brava | 14 | 6 | 3 | 5 | 15:15 | 21 |
| 6 | Zacatecas Mineros | 14 | 6 | 3 | 5 | 19:20 | 21 |
| 7 | Tapatio | 14 | 6 | 2 | 6 | 28:24 | 20 |
| 8 | Atlante | 14 | 5 | 5 | 4 | 21:17 | 20 |
| 9 | Irapuato | 14 | 6 | 2 | 6 | 27:24 | 20 |
| 10 | Tlaxcala | 14 | 5 | 5 | 4 | 16:17 | 20 |
| 11 | Venados FC | 14 | 4 | 4 | 6 | 25:25 | 16 |
| 12 | Alebrijes de Oaxaca | 14 | 4 | 4 | 6 | 20:29 | 16 |
| 13 | Dorados de Sinaloa | 14 | 3 | 4 | 7 | 17:28 | 13 |
| 14 | Correcaminos | 14 | 3 | 3 | 8 | 14:27 | 12 |
| 15 | Leones Negros | 14 | 2 | 5 | 7 | 15:25 | 11 |
Promotion - Liga de Expansion MX 2025/2026 (Clausura - Play Offs)
