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Capalaba FC vs Logan Lightning Prediction & H2H Stats

Australia Australia

Queensland Premier League John Frederick Park, Redlands
Capalaba FC Logo

Capalaba FC

1 - 3
FT
Logan Lightning Logo

Logan Lightning

Our Tip

Match Events

10' Event
Todd J.
14' Event
Donoghue L.
76' Event
Bell K.
Summary Win Prob Goals Form H2H Tactics Players Indices Predictions Timeline Accuracy Compare

AI Match Summary

Logan Lightning in this Queensland Premier League matchup, with the score ending 1-3 — backing the pre-match view that favored Logan Lightning.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

29%
Capalaba FC
20%
Draws
51%
Logan Lightning
Draw rate projection: 20% Favored: Logan Lightning

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

51% / Medium Confidence
  • Form's been kind to Logan Lightning lately — more wins on the board than Capalaba FC.
  • Model puts this one close, with a 39% draw probability.
  • Regular Queensland Premier League form gives a decent read on both sides.
  • High conversion rates suggest a high-scoring game (Over 2.5 Probability: 78%).
  • These two have met 5 times recently and Logan Lightning have taken 4 of them.

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 92%
Over 1.5 Goals 82%
Over 2.5 Goals 78%
Over 3.5 Goals 56.5%
Over 4.5 Goals 25%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 76.2%
Capalaba FC Clean Sheet 10%
Logan Lightning Clean Sheet 10%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Capalaba FC Logan Lightning
Matches Played 30 30
Wins 6 11
Draws 3 5
Losses 21 14
Goals Scored 1.07 1.63
Goals Conceded 2.57 1.8
Expected Goals (xG) 1.31 2.13
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.10 1.40

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Jun 5, 2026 Queensland Premier League
Logan Lightning vs Capalaba FC
1:0
Mar 7, 2026 Queensland Premier League
Capalaba FC vs Logan Lightning
1:3
Jun 15, 2025 Queensland Premier League
Logan Lightning vs Capalaba FC
3:1
May 9, 2025 Queensland Premier League
Capalaba FC vs Logan Lightning
1:4
Jul 5, 2024 Queensland Premier League
Logan Lightning vs Capalaba FC
1:1

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

Capalaba FC Compare

Top Goalscorer Todd J.
1 Goals
Avg xG / game 1.01
Avg xA / game 0.66

Logan Lightning Compare

Top Goalscorer Donoghue L.
1 Goals
Assists Leader Bell K.
1 Ast
Avg xG / game 1.94
Avg xA / game 1.18

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Capalaba FC 30 / 100
Logan Lightning 29 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Capalaba FC Logan Lightning

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick Logan Lightning Win (2)
Secondary Pick Over 2.5 Goals or BTTS Yes
Correct Score 1:2
BTTS Outcome Yes (GG)
Over/Under Pick Over 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Defensive concern: Logan Lightning conceded in 87% of 30 recent games.

These sides typically produce 3.20 goals when they meet.

Attacking prowess: Capalaba FC scored in 77% of their last 30 outings.

Recent resilience: Capalaba FC stayed unbeaten in 2 of the last 5 games.

Scoring Trends

Capalaba FC VS Logan Lightning
0.75 Goals Scored 2
2.25 Goals Conceded 1.88
75% Over 1.5 75%
50% Over 2.5 75%
38% Over 3.5 75%

Recent Form & Match History

Capalaba FC

(Home)
15 Aug
Capalaba FC
1 : 2
Robina City
09 Aug
Ipswich
3 : 0
Capalaba FC
31 Jul
North Star
1 : 0
Capalaba FC
19 Jul
Capalaba FC
3 : 0
Holland Park Hawks
11 Jul
Redlands
1 : 1
Capalaba FC
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Logan Lightning

(Away)
15 Aug
Redlands
2 : 0
Logan Lightning
09 Aug
Logan Lightning
4 : 1
St. George Willawong
31 Jul
Broadbeach Utd.
1 : 0
Logan Lightning
18 Jul
Logan Lightning
2 : 2
Sunshine Coast Wanderers
11 Jul
Logan Lightning
3 : 2
Ipswich
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League Standings

Pos Team P W D L GD Pts
1 Brisbane Strikers 22 17 3 2 52:18 54
2 Broadbeach Utd. 22 16 4 2 51:20 52
3 Sunshine Coast Wanderers 22 10 7 5 46:28 37
4 Ipswich 22 10 5 7 35:30 35
5 Robina City 22 9 5 8 36:29 32
6 Caboolture 22 9 4 9 45:38 31
7 Redlands 22 8 6 8 40:38 30
8 Holland Park Hawks 22 9 3 10 40:48 30
9 Logan Lightning 22 8 3 11 39:41 27
10 North Star 22 6 3 13 22:41 21
11 St. George Willawong 22 4 1 17 13:52 13
12 Capalaba FC 22 3 2 17 21:57 11
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