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Cape Verde vs Equatorial Guinea

World World

Friendly International 2024
Our Tip

AI Match Summary

Cape Verde play Equatorial Guinea in the Friendly International 2024. It looks like a close match. Recently, Cape Verde averaged 1.3 goals scored and 1.03 conceded. Equatorial Guinea averaged 0.79 goals scored and 1.17 conceded. In past meetings, Cape Verde won 4, Equatorial Guinea won 0, and they drew 0. Their last match on Mar 25, 2024 ended 1:0. Our numbers estimate xG of 1.44 for Cape Verde and 0.81 for Equatorial Guinea. This points to a Cape Verde double chance or over markets.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

54%
Cape Verde
17%
Draws
29%
Equatorial Guinea
Draw rate projection: 17% Favored: Cape Verde

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

81% / High Confidence
  • Cape Verde picked up more points recently compared to Equatorial Guinea.
  • Model forecasts higher goal threat for the host (1.44 vs 0.81 xG).
  • Past meetings show a clear pattern favoring the home side.
  • Strong defensive structures favor a low-scoring, controlled fixture.

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 91%
Over 1.5 Goals 60%
Over 2.5 Goals 40%
Over 3.5 Goals 24%
Over 4.5 Goals 12%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 35%
Cape Verde Clean Sheet 26%
Equatorial Guinea Clean Sheet 10%
First Half Goal 54%
Second Half Goal 57%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Cape Verde Equatorial Guinea
Matches Played 30 29
Wins 13 8
Draws 7 7
Losses 10 14
Goals Scored 1.3 0.79
Goals Conceded 1.03 1.17
Expected Goals (xG) 1.75 0.63
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.00 1.13

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Mar 25, 2024 Friendly International
Cape Verde vs Equatorial Guinea
1:0
Jun 8, 2013 World Championship
Cape Verde vs Equatorial Guinea
3:0
Mar 24, 2013 World Championship
Equatorial Guinea vs Cape Verde
0:3
Mar 28, 2009 Friendly International
Cape Verde vs Equatorial Guinea
5:0

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

Cape Verde Compare

Top Goalscorer Cabral J.
1 Goals
Avg xG / game 1.35
Avg xA / game 0.88

Equatorial Guinea Compare

Avg xG / game 0.57
Avg xA / game 0.35

Sokapicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Cape Verde 54 / 100
Equatorial Guinea 28 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Cape Verde Equatorial Guinea

Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick Cape Verde Win (1)
Secondary Pick Cape Verde & Under 3.5
First Half Result Home Win (HT)
BTTS Outcome No (NG)
Over/Under Pick Under 2.5

Value Bet Detector (+EV)

Matches where our model probability exceeds implied bookmaker odds

1X2 Home Win
Value Edge +17.2%
2.17
Goals Over/Under Over 2.5 Goals
Value Edge +17.6%
2.94
*EV represents Expected Value. A positive value edge means the bookmaker has priced the selection significantly below its true statistical likelihood.

Attacking Heatmaps & Shot Locations

Dynamic heat overlays computed from tactical zone entries

Cape Verde attacking → ← attacking Equatorial Guinea

Sokapicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Cape Verde scored in 73% of their last 30 games.

Equatorial Guinea let in goals in 72% of their last 29 matches.

Games between these two average 3.00 goals.

Cape Verde went unbeaten in 4 of their last 5 games.

Equatorial Guinea lost 3 of their last 5 games.

Interactive Team Comparison Slider

Side-by-side comparison of team metrics

46 Points in last 5 31
1.75 Goals expected (xG) 0.63
1.00 Goals conceded expected (xGA) 1.13