Sport Picks

Stadium Background

Capitao Poco vs Castanhal

Brazil Brazil

Paraense Estádio Municipal José Rufino de Souza, Cap. Poco
Our Tip

Match Events

5' Event
Welthon
65' Event
Raylson

AI Match Summary

The Paraense game between Capitao Poco and Castanhal finished 2-0, a result that aligned with the model's pre-match lean toward Capitao Poco.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

57%
Capitao Poco
15%
Draws
28%
Castanhal
Draw rate projection: 15% Favored: Capitao Poco

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

57% / Medium Confidence
  • Castanhal haven't matched Capitao Poco's recent run of results.
  • Model gives Capitao Poco a 57% chance of winning this.
  • This is a straightforward league game — the season-long numbers should hold up.
  • High conversion rates suggest a high-scoring game (Over 2.5 Probability: 78%).

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 92%
Over 1.5 Goals 82%
Over 2.5 Goals 78%
Over 3.5 Goals 13%
Over 4.5 Goals 6%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 67%
Capitao Poco Clean Sheet 20%
Castanhal Clean Sheet 13%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Capitao Poco Castanhal
Matches Played 30 30
Wins 13 10
Draws 8 8
Losses 9 12
Goals Scored 1.17 1.03
Goals Conceded 1 1.2
Expected Goals (xG) 1.13 0.88
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.10 1.40

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Mar 7, 2026 Copa Grao Para
Castanhal vs Capitao Poco
0:1
Feb 19, 2026 Paraense
Capitao Poco vs Castanhal
0:1
Feb 15, 2026 Paraense
Capitao Poco vs Castanhal
2:0
Apr 2, 2025 Copa Grao Para
Castanhal vs Capitao Poco
3:1
Jan 29, 2025 Paraense
Capitao Poco vs Castanhal
0:0

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

Capitao Poco Compare

Top Goalscorer Welthon
1 Goals
Assists Leader Raylson
1 Ast
Avg xG / game 0.87
Avg xA / game 0.56

Castanhal Compare

Avg xG / game 0.8
Avg xA / game 0.49

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Capitao Poco 85 / 100
Castanhal 10 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Capitao Poco Castanhal

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick Capitao Poco Win (1)
Secondary Pick Over 2.5 Goals or BTTS Yes
Correct Score 2:1
BTTS Outcome Yes (GG)
Over/Under Pick Over 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Capitao Poco's goal record stands at 73% scoring rate across 30 recent games.

Castanhal let in goals in 67% of their last 30 matches.

H2H data points to 1.60 goals as a typical output.

Capitao Poco has registered 4 games unbeaten in their last 5 outings.

Scoring Trends

Capitao Poco VS Castanhal
1.38 Goals Scored 0.75
1 Goals Conceded 0.88
75% Over 1.5 38%
50% Over 2.5 25%
13% Over 3.5 13%

Recent Form & Match History

Capitao Poco

(Home)
07 Mar
Castanhal
0 : 1
Capitao Poco
28 Feb
Cameta
1 : 2
Capitao Poco
22 Feb
Capitao Poco
2 : 1
Tuna Luso
19 Feb
Capitao Poco
0 : 1
Castanhal
15 Feb
Capitao Poco
2 : 0
Castanhal
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Castanhal

(Away)
11 Mar
Castanhal
0 : 4
Nova Iguacu
07 Mar
Castanhal
0 : 1
Capitao Poco
28 Feb
Castanhal
1 : 0
Aguia De Maraba
25 Feb
Castanhal
2 : 1
Guarani
22 Feb
Paysandu PA
1 : 0
Castanhal
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League Standings

Pos Team P W D L GD Pts
1 Cameta 6 3 2 1 8:4 11
2 Capitao Poco 6 3 1 2 9:6 10
3 Paysandu PA 6 3 1 2 6:4 10
4 Aguia De Maraba 6 3 1 2 8:7 10
5 Remo 6 2 4 0 9:5 10
6 Tuna Luso 6 3 0 3 3:5 9
7 Castanhal 6 2 2 2 4:5 8
8 Santa Rosa 6 2 1 3 4:7 7
9 Sao Raimundo PA 6 1 3 2 6:8 6
10 Amazonia IFC 6 1 3 2 7:11 6
11 Bragantino PA 6 1 2 3 6:7 5
12 Sao Francisco 6 1 2 3 4:5 5
Promotion - Paraense (Play Offs)
Relegation - Paraense A2 2027 (Main)