Sport Picks

Stadium Background

Capitao Poco vs Castanhal

Brazil Brazil

Paraense Estádio Municipal José Rufino de Souza, Cap. Poco
Our Tip

Match Events

25' Event
Marcos Paulo
26'
Dudu
29'
Sub
Welthon In: Anthony
Out: Welthon

AI Match Summary

First leg ended 0-1. The second leg ended 0-1.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

57%
Capitao Poco
15%
Draws
28%
Castanhal
Draw rate projection: 15% Favored: Capitao Poco

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

57% / Medium Confidence
  • Look at the last few games and Capitao Poco come out ahead of Castanhal on wins alone.
  • 57% — that's where the model lands on Capitao Poco taking it.
  • Capitao Poco have the better recent form, but knockout football is a different beast — one bad day ends the campaign.
  • Historical meetings favor Castanhal, who have won 1 of the last 5 encounters.
  • Strong defensive structures favor a low-scoring, controlled fixture.

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 85%
Over 1.5 Goals 56.5%
Over 2.5 Goals 25%
Over 3.5 Goals 13%
Over 4.5 Goals 6%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 28%
Capitao Poco Clean Sheet 68%
Castanhal Clean Sheet 13%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Capitao Poco Castanhal
Matches Played 30 30
Wins 13 10
Draws 8 8
Losses 9 12
Goals Scored 1.17 1.03
Goals Conceded 1 1.2
Expected Goals (xG) 1.13 0.88
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.10 1.40

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Mar 7, 2026 Copa Grao Para
Castanhal vs Capitao Poco
0:1
Feb 19, 2026 Paraense
Capitao Poco vs Castanhal
0:1
Feb 15, 2026 Paraense
Capitao Poco vs Castanhal
2:0
Apr 2, 2025 Copa Grao Para
Castanhal vs Capitao Poco
3:1
Jan 29, 2025 Paraense
Capitao Poco vs Castanhal
0:0

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

Capitao Poco Compare

Avg xG / game 0.87
Avg xA / game 0.56

Castanhal Compare

Top Goalscorer Marcos Paulo
1 Goals
Avg xG / game 0.8
Avg xA / game 0.49

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Capitao Poco 95 / 100
Castanhal 10 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Capitao Poco Castanhal

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick Capitao Poco Win (1)
Secondary Pick Under 2.5 Goals or BTTS No
Correct Score 1:0
BTTS Outcome No (NG)
Over/Under Pick Under 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Capitao Poco scored in 73% of their last 30 games.

Defensive concern: Castanhal conceded in 67% of 30 recent games.

These sides typically produce 1.60 goals when they meet.

Capitao Poco has registered 4 games unbeaten in their last 5 outings.

Scoring Trends

Capitao Poco VS Castanhal
1.38 Goals Scored 0.75
1 Goals Conceded 0.88
75% Over 1.5 38%
50% Over 2.5 25%
13% Over 3.5 13%

Recent Form & Match History

Capitao Poco

(Home)
07 Mar
Castanhal
0 : 1
Capitao Poco
28 Feb
Cameta
1 : 2
Capitao Poco
22 Feb
Capitao Poco
2 : 1
Tuna Luso
19 Feb
Capitao Poco
0 : 1
Castanhal
15 Feb
Capitao Poco
2 : 0
Castanhal
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Castanhal

(Away)
11 Mar
Castanhal
0 : 4
Nova Iguacu
07 Mar
Castanhal
0 : 1
Capitao Poco
28 Feb
Castanhal
1 : 0
Aguia De Maraba
25 Feb
Castanhal
2 : 1
Guarani
22 Feb
Paysandu PA
1 : 0
Castanhal
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Tournament Bracket & Draw

Quarter-finals
Cameta 2
Santa Rosa 0
Aguia De Maraba 1
Remo 2
Paysandu PA 5
Tuna Luso 1
Capitao Poco 0
Castanhal 1
Semi-finals
Cameta 2
Remo 3
Paysandu PA 1
Castanhal 0
Final
Remo 1
Paysandu PA 2