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Capitao Poco vs Independente - H2H Analysis, Preview & Predictions

Brazil Brazil

Paraense B1 2024
Our Tip

AI Match Summary

Independente in this Paraense B1 2024 tie, finishing 1-2. One-off knockout football delivers a decisive result.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

48%
Capitao Poco
20%
Draws
32%
Independente
Draw rate projection: 20% Favored: Capitao Poco

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

20% / Low Confidence
  • Capitao Poco have won more games recently than Independente.
  • Win probability leans Capitao Poco's way, sitting at 42%.
  • Capitao Poco have the better recent form, but knockout football is a different beast — one bad day ends the campaign.
  • Historical meetings favor Independente, who have won 1 of the last 2 encounters.
  • High conversion rates suggest a high-scoring game (Over 2.5 Probability: 78%).

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 92%
Over 1.5 Goals 82%
Over 2.5 Goals 78%
Over 3.5 Goals 70%
Over 4.5 Goals 32%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 71%
Capitao Poco Clean Sheet 17%
Independente Clean Sheet 16%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Capitao Poco Independente
Matches Played 30 30
Wins 13 9
Draws 8 12
Losses 9 9
Goals Scored 1.17 1.1
Goals Conceded 1 1.13
Expected Goals (xG) 0.92 1.40
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.10 1.40

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Mar 2, 2025 Paraense
Independente vs Capitao Poco
1:1
Dec 4, 2024 Paraense A2
Capitao Poco vs Independente
1:2

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Capitao Poco 41 / 100
Independente 37 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Capitao Poco Independente

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick Draw (X)
Secondary Pick Over 2.5 Goals or BTTS Yes
Correct Score 2:2
BTTS Outcome Yes (GG)
Over/Under Pick Over 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Capitao Poco scored in 73% of their last 30 games.

Independente let in goals in 77% of their last 30 matches.

H2H data points to 2.50 goals as a typical output.

Capitao Poco went unbeaten in 4 of their last 5 games.

Scoring Trends

Capitao Poco VS Independente
1.13 Goals Scored 1.29
1.5 Goals Conceded 0.71
88% Over 1.5 71%
50% Over 2.5 43%
25% Over 3.5 0%

Recent Form & Match History

Capitao Poco

(Home)
07 Mar
Castanhal
0 : 1
Capitao Poco
28 Feb
Cameta
1 : 2
Capitao Poco
22 Feb
Capitao Poco
2 : 1
Tuna Luso
19 Feb
Capitao Poco
0 : 1
Castanhal
15 Feb
Capitao Poco
2 : 0
Castanhal
Page 1 of 6

Independente

(Away)
07 Jun
Independente
0 : 0
Itupiranga
04 Jun
Itupiranga
1 : 0
Independente
30 May
Independente
3 : 0
Uniao Paraense
13 May
Izabelense
1 : 2
Independente
09 May
Uniao Paraense
1 : 1
Independente
Page 1 of 6

Tournament Bracket & Draw

Quarter-finals
Capitao Poco 2
Izabelense 0
Amazonia IFC 0
Paragominas 5
Carajas 2
Sao Raimundo PA 1
ESMAC 1
Independente 3
Semi-finals
Capitao Poco 3
Paragominas 0
Carajas 1
Independente 2
Final
Capitao Poco 1
Independente 2