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Carabanchel vs Union Adarve

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Tercera RFEF - Group 7 2025/2026
Carabanchel Logo

Carabanchel

0 - 1
FT
Union Adarve Logo

Union Adarve

Our Tip

Match Events

80' Event
Meseguer L.
Summary Win Prob Goals Form H2H Tactics Players Indices Predictions Timeline Accuracy Compare

AI Match Summary

The Tercera RFEF - Group 7 2025/2026 game between Carabanchel and Union Adarve finished 0-1, a result that aligned with the model's pre-match lean toward Union Adarve.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

35%
Carabanchel
35%
Draws
30%
Union Adarve
Draw rate projection: 35% Favored: Draw

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

35% / Low Confidence
  • Union Adarve carry the better recent record into this one.
  • Win probability leans Carabanchel's way, sitting at 42%.
  • Regular Tercera RFEF - Group 7 2025/2026 form gives a decent read on both sides.
  • Strong defensive structures favor a low-scoring, controlled fixture.

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 92%
Over 1.5 Goals 82%
Over 2.5 Goals 38%
Over 3.5 Goals 22%
Over 4.5 Goals 10%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 67.8%
Carabanchel Clean Sheet 11%
Union Adarve Clean Sheet 12%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Carabanchel Union Adarve
Matches Played 30 29
Wins 8 13
Draws 10 7
Losses 12 9
Goals Scored 0.77 1.48
Goals Conceded 0.97 1.21
Expected Goals (xG) 1.17 1.79
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.10 1.40

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Feb 1, 2026 Tercera RFEF - Group 7
Carabanchel vs Union Adarve
0:1
Sep 21, 2025 Tercera RFEF - Group 7
Union Adarve vs Carabanchel
3:3
May 10, 2020 Tercera RFEF - Group 7
Union Adarve vs Carabanchel
0:0
Dec 22, 2019 Tercera RFEF - Group 7
Carabanchel vs Union Adarve
2:0
Mar 2, 2014 Tercera RFEF - Group 7
Carabanchel vs Union Adarve
2:0

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

Carabanchel Compare

Avg xG / game 0.9
Avg xA / game 0.58

Union Adarve Compare

Top Goalscorer Meseguer L.
1 Goals
Avg xG / game 1.63
Avg xA / game 0.99

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Carabanchel 40 / 100
Union Adarve 37 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Carabanchel Union Adarve

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick Draw (X)
Secondary Pick Under 2.5 Goals or BTTS Yes
Correct Score 1:1
BTTS Outcome Yes (GG)
Over/Under Pick Under 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Defensive concern: Union Adarve conceded in 69% of 29 recent games.

These sides typically produce 2.20 goals when they meet.

Solid form: Carabanchel remains unbeaten in 3 of 5 recent matches.

Carabanchel found the back of the net in 57% of recent matches (30 games).

Scoring Trends

Carabanchel VS Union Adarve
1.33 Goals Scored 2.25
1.33 Goals Conceded 1
67% Over 1.5 88%
50% Over 2.5 75%
33% Over 3.5 50%

Recent Form & Match History

Carabanchel

(Home)
10 May
Siello
3 : 0
Carabanchel
03 May
Carabanchel
3 : 2
Pozuelo de Alarcon
25 Apr
Leganes B
0 : 1
Carabanchel
19 Apr
Carabanchel
0 : 1
Trival Valderas
12 Apr
AD Torrejon
1 : 1
Carabanchel
Page 1 of 6

Union Adarve

(Away)
27 Sept
Union Adarve
2 : 2
CF Fuenlabrada
19 Sept
Mexico
1 : 1
Union Adarve
13 Sept
Union Adarve
1 : 1
Colonia Moscardo
06 Sept
San Sebastian Reyes B
0 : 2
Union Adarve
30 Aug
Marchamalo
2 : 0
Union Adarve
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League Standings

Pos Team P W D L GD Pts
1 Atl. Madrid C 34 18 10 6 83:46 64
2 Trival Valderas 34 18 6 10 50:36 60
3 AD Torrejon 34 17 9 8 57:46 60
4 CD Las Rozas 34 16 8 10 58:42 56
5 Leganes B 34 15 9 10 63:33 54
6 Union Adarve 34 15 8 11 48:42 53
7 CD Mostoles 34 14 9 11 51:45 51
8 San Sebastian Reyes B 34 12 13 9 45:35 49
9 Pozuelo de Alarcon 34 12 12 10 40:33 48
10 Galapagar 34 11 13 10 42:47 46
11 Mexico 34 12 9 13 45:49 45
12 Siello 34 13 5 16 39:45 44
13 Alcorcon B 34 11 11 12 37:34 44
14 Villaverde San Andres 34 10 13 11 32:44 43
15 Carabanchel 34 9 11 14 30:36 38
16 Tres Cantos 34 10 3 21 40:65 33
17 Parla 34 7 6 21 29:66 27
18 Ciudad de Madrid 34 5 7 22 31:76 22
Promotion - Tercera RFEF - Group 7 2025/2026 (Play Offs)