Sport Picks

Stadium Background

Carajas vs Independente

Brazil Brazil

Paraense B1 2024
Our Tip

AI Match Summary

Neither side could be separated in this Paraense B1 2024 tie, finishing 1-1. Extra time or penalties follow.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

25%
Carajas
35%
Draws
40%
Independente
Draw rate projection: 35% Favored: Independente

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

40% / Low Confidence
  • Form's been kind to Independente lately — more wins on the board than Carajas.
  • 40% chance of a draw — the model doesn't see a clear favorite.
  • Independente arrive in better shape, but cup ties don't always follow form.
  • Historical meetings favor Independente, who have won 1 of the last 5 encounters.
  • High conversion rates suggest a high-scoring game (Over 2.5 Probability: 78%).

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 92%
Over 1.5 Goals 82%
Over 2.5 Goals 78%
Over 3.5 Goals 6.5%
Over 4.5 Goals 3%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 70.2%
Carajas Clean Sheet 19%
Independente Clean Sheet 17%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Carajas Independente
Matches Played 24 31
Wins 4 10
Draws 9 12
Losses 11 9
Goals Scored 0.88 1.13
Goals Conceded 1.29 1.1
Expected Goals (xG) 0.88 1.25
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.10 1.40

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Nov 9, 2024 Paraense A2
Independente vs Carajas
1:0
Nov 3, 2024 Paraense A2
Carajas vs Independente
1:1
Oct 12, 2024 Paraense A2
Carajas vs Independente
2:3
Sep 22, 2024 Paraense A2
Independente vs Carajas
0:2
Apr 16, 2021 Paraense
Independente vs Carajas
2:0

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Carajas 32 / 100
Independente 30 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Carajas Independente

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick Independente Win (2)
Secondary Pick Over 2.5 Goals or BTTS Yes
Correct Score 1:2
BTTS Outcome Yes (GG)
Over/Under Pick Over 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Carajas scored in 63% of their last 24 games.

Independente has conceded goals in 74% of their last 31 outings.

Games between these two average 2.40 goals.

Carajas has registered 3 games unbeaten in their last 5 outings.

Scoring Trends

Carajas VS Independente
1 Goals Scored 1.13
1.38 Goals Conceded 0.75
75% Over 1.5 63%
50% Over 2.5 38%
13% Over 3.5 0%

Recent Form & Match History

Carajas

(Home)
10 Jun
Carajas
0 : 1
Izabelense
05 Jun
Izabelense
2 : 1
Carajas
30 May
Carajas
0 : 0
Itupiranga
16 May
Atletico Paraense
0 : 2
Carajas
09 May
Itupiranga
1 : 1
Carajas
Page 1 of 5

Independente

(Away)
07 Jun
Independente
0 : 0
Itupiranga
04 Jun
Itupiranga
1 : 0
Independente
30 May
Independente
3 : 0
Uniao Paraense
13 May
Izabelense
1 : 2
Independente
09 May
Uniao Paraense
1 : 1
Independente
Page 1 of 7

Tournament Bracket & Draw

Quarter-finals
Capitao Poco 2
Izabelense 0
Amazonia IFC 0
Paragominas 5
Carajas 2
Sao Raimundo PA 1
ESMAC 1
Independente 3
Semi-finals
Capitao Poco 3
Paragominas 0
Carajas 1
Independente 2
Final
Capitao Poco 1
Independente 2