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Caravaggio vs Hercilio Luz

Brazil Brazil

Catarinense 2
Our Tip

Match Events

3' Event
Evaristo
47' Event
Alan James
60' Event
Alan James

AI Match Summary

Neither side could be separated in this Catarinense 2 matchup, with the score ending 2-2.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

40%
Caravaggio
33%
Draws
27%
Hercilio Luz
Draw rate projection: 33% Favored: Caravaggio

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

70% / Medium Confidence
  • Caravaggio have won more games recently than Hercilio Luz.
  • Win probability leans Caravaggio's way, sitting at 40%.
  • This is a straightforward league game — the season-long numbers should hold up.
  • Strong defensive structures favor a low-scoring, controlled fixture.

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 99%
Over 1.5 Goals 94%
Over 2.5 Goals 25%
Over 3.5 Goals 22%
Over 4.5 Goals 10%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 29.6%
Caravaggio Clean Sheet 68%
Hercilio Luz Clean Sheet 10%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Caravaggio Hercilio Luz
Matches Played 28 27
Wins 13 12
Draws 4 6
Losses 11 9
Goals Scored 3 2.38
Goals Conceded 1.13 0.75
Expected Goals (xG) 3.00 2.38
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.13 0.75

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

May 31, 2026 Catarinense 2
Caravaggio vs Hercilio Luz
2:2
Feb 2, 2025 Catarinense
Caravaggio vs Hercilio Luz
1:0

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

Caravaggio Compare

Top Goalscorer Evaristo
1 Goals
Assists Leader Eduardo Junior
1 Ast
Avg xG / game 2.31
Avg xA / game 1.5

Hercilio Luz Compare

Top Goalscorer Alan James
2 Goals
Avg xG / game 2.16
Avg xA / game 1.32

Sokapicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Caravaggio 50 / 100
Hercilio Luz 26 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Caravaggio Hercilio Luz

Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick CAR Win (1)
Secondary Pick Under 2.5 Goals & BTTS No
Correct Score 1:0
BTTS Outcome No (NG)
Over/Under Pick Under 2.5

Sokapicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Caravaggio found the back of the net in 75% of recent matches (28 games).

Hercilio Luz's defensive record shows goals conceded in 67% of 27 matches.

H2H data points to 2.50 goals as a typical output.

Recent resilience: Caravaggio stayed unbeaten in 3 of the last 5 games.

Scoring Trends

Caravaggio VS Hercilio Luz
3 Goals Scored 2.38
1.13 Goals Conceded 0.75
88% Over 1.5 100%
88% Over 2.5 63%
50% Over 3.5 25%

League Standings

PosTeamPWDLGDPts
1Hercilio Luz15112231:935
2Caravaggio1593342:1730
3CA Metropolitano1592425:1729
4Blumenau1583431:1227
5Tubarao1565422:1523
6Fluminense-SC1553714:1818
7Nacao1545614:2217
8Guarani de Palhoca1544714:2316
9Gremio Juventus1542913:2114
10Jaragua-SC1501145:571