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Caravaggio vs Hercilio Luz

Brazil Brazil

Catarinense 2
Our Tip

Match Events

3' Event
Evaristo
47' Event
Alan James
60' Event
Alan James

AI Match Summary

Neither side could be separated in this Catarinense 2 matchup, with the score ending 2-2.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

38%
Caravaggio
20%
Draws
42%
Hercilio Luz
Draw rate projection: 20% Favored: Hercilio Luz

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

38% / Low Confidence
  • Hercilio Luz have won more games recently than Caravaggio.
  • Win probability leans Caravaggio's way, sitting at 90%.
  • This is a straightforward league game — the season-long numbers should hold up.
  • Strong defensive structures favor a low-scoring, controlled fixture.

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 85%
Over 1.5 Goals 75%
Over 2.5 Goals 25%
Over 3.5 Goals 22%
Over 4.5 Goals 10%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 31.6%
Caravaggio Clean Sheet 68%
Hercilio Luz Clean Sheet 10%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Caravaggio Hercilio Luz
Matches Played 30 30
Wins 14 17
Draws 6 5
Losses 10 8
Goals Scored 1.87 1.73
Goals Conceded 1.33 1.03
Expected Goals (xG) 1.44 1.56
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.10 1.40

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Jul 22, 2026 Catarinense 2
Hercilio Luz vs Caravaggio
0:0
May 31, 2026 Catarinense 2
Caravaggio vs Hercilio Luz
2:2
Feb 2, 2025 Catarinense
Caravaggio vs Hercilio Luz
1:0

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

Caravaggio Compare

Top Goalscorer Evaristo
1 Goals
Assists Leader Eduardo Junior
1 Ast
Avg xG / game 1.11
Avg xA / game 0.72

Hercilio Luz Compare

Top Goalscorer Alan James
2 Goals
Avg xG / game 1.42
Avg xA / game 0.87

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Caravaggio 95 / 100
Hercilio Luz 10 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Caravaggio Hercilio Luz

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick Caravaggio Win (1)
Secondary Pick Under 2.5 Goals or BTTS No
Correct Score 1:0
BTTS Outcome No (NG)
Over/Under Pick Under 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Solid form: Caravaggio remains unbeaten in 5 of 5 recent matches.

Caravaggio's goal record stands at 77% scoring rate across 30 recent games.

Hercilio Luz has conceded goals in 67% of their last 30 outings.

These sides typically produce 1.67 goals when they meet.

Scoring Trends

Caravaggio VS Hercilio Luz
2.38 Goals Scored 2
1.13 Goals Conceded 0.5
75% Over 1.5 75%
75% Over 2.5 50%
38% Over 3.5 13%

Recent Form & Match History

Caravaggio

(Home)
25 Jul
Caravaggio
3 : 1
Gremio Juventus
22 Jul
Hercilio Luz
0 : 0
Caravaggio
18 Jul
Nacao
2 : 2
Caravaggio
15 Jul
Caravaggio
2 : 1
Tubarao
12 Jul
Caravaggio
9 : 0
Jaragua-SC
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Hercilio Luz

(Away)
26 Sept
Hercilio Luz
2 : 1
Nacao
19 Sept
Marcilio Dias
4 : 2
Hercilio Luz
12 Sept
Joinville
1 : 3
Hercilio Luz
30 Aug
Hercilio Luz
4 : 2
CA Metropolitano
25 Jul
Nacao
1 : 2
Hercilio Luz
Page 1 of 6

League Standings

Pos Team P W D L GD Pts
1 Hercilio Luz 18 13 3 2 35:10 42
2 CA Metropolitano 18 12 2 4 36:18 38
3 Caravaggio 18 10 5 3 47:20 35
4 Blumenau 18 9 4 5 35:15 31
5 Tubarao 18 6 5 7 23:21 23
6 Guarani de Palhoca 18 6 5 7 24:24 23
7 Nacao 18 5 6 7 19:26 21
8 Fluminense-SC 18 6 3 9 16:25 21
9 Gremio Juventus 18 5 2 11 17:26 17
10 Jaragua-SC 18 0 1 17 6:73 1
Promotion - Catarinense 2027 (Main)
Relegation - Catarinense 3 2027 (Main)