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Caravaggio vs Tritium

Italy Italy

Serie D - Group B 2023/2024
Our Tip

Match Events

5' Event
Lacchini M.
11' Event
Caraffa D.
64' Event
Selmi S.

AI Match Summary

Caravaggio in this Serie D - Group B 2023/2024 matchup, with the score ending 3-2 — backing the pre-match view that favored Caravaggio.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

46%
Caravaggio
35%
Draws
19%
Tritium
Draw rate projection: 35% Favored: Caravaggio

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

35% / Low Confidence
  • Caravaggio have won more games recently than Tritium.
  • Win probability leans Caravaggio's way, sitting at 36%.
  • Regular Serie D - Group B 2023/2024 form gives a decent read on both sides.
  • High conversion rates suggest a high-scoring game (Over 2.5 Probability: 78%).

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 94%
Over 1.5 Goals 84%
Over 2.5 Goals 78%
Over 3.5 Goals 70%
Over 4.5 Goals 32%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 72.6%
Caravaggio Clean Sheet 16%
Tritium Clean Sheet 12%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Caravaggio Tritium
Matches Played 34 30
Wins 8 4
Draws 7 10
Losses 19 16
Goals Scored 1.12 0.73
Goals Conceded 1.56 1.4
Expected Goals (xG) 1.20 1.50
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.10 1.40

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Apr 14, 2024 Serie D - Group B
Caravaggio vs Tritium
3:2
Dec 3, 2023 Serie D - Group B
Tritium vs Caravaggio
0:1
Mar 28, 2021 Serie D - Group B
Caravaggio vs Tritium
2:2
Nov 22, 2020 Serie D - Group B
Tritium vs Caravaggio
2:2
Jan 19, 2020 Serie D - Group B
Caravaggio vs Tritium
1:2

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

Caravaggio Compare

Top Goalscorer Lacchini M.
1 Goals
Assists Leader Doria A.
1 Ast
Avg xG / game 0.92
Avg xA / game 0.6

Tritium Compare

Top Goalscorer Caraffa D.
1 Goals
Assists Leader Selmi S.
1 Ast
Avg xG / game 1.36
Avg xA / game 0.83

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Caravaggio 36 / 100
Tritium 33 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Caravaggio Tritium

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick Draw (X)
Secondary Pick Over 2.5 Goals or BTTS Yes
Correct Score 2:2
BTTS Outcome Yes (GG)
Over/Under Pick Over 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Tritium's defensive record shows goals conceded in 87% of 30 matches.

These sides typically produce 3.40 goals when they meet.

Caravaggio's goal record stands at 68% scoring rate across 34 recent games.

Recent resilience: Caravaggio stayed unbeaten in 3 of the last 5 games.

Scoring Trends

Caravaggio VS Tritium
1 Goals Scored 1
2 Goals Conceded 1.4
88% Over 1.5 80%
63% Over 2.5 60%
38% Over 3.5 20%

Recent Form & Match History

Caravaggio

(Home)
17 May
Caravaggio
2 : 3
Ciserano-Bergamo
04 May
Caravaggio
0 : 3
Luparense FC
27 Apr
Real Calepina
0 : 1
Caravaggio
17 Apr
Caravaggio
0 : 0
Brusaporto
13 Apr
Brian Lignano
2 : 2
Caravaggio
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Tritium

(Away)
16 Sept
Tritium
1 : 1
Villa Valle
12 Sept
Brusaporto
2 : 1
Tritium
06 Sept
Tritium
1 : 2
Piacenza
14 Aug
Tritium
2 : 2
Solbiatese
05 May
Tritium
2 : 4
Pro Palazzolo
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League Standings

Pos Team P W D L GD Pts
1 Caldiero Terme 38 23 8 7 55:32 77
2 Piacenza 38 22 8 8 69:35 74
3 Pro Palazzolo 38 21 10 7 49:26 73
4 Desenzano Calvina 38 19 12 7 51:28 69
5 Varesina 38 20 8 10 73:49 68
6 Arconatese 38 21 5 12 58:38 68
7 Brusaporto 38 15 9 14 55:54 54
8 Clivense 38 14 11 13 38:47 53
9 Villa Valle 38 15 8 15 50:44 53
10 Folgore Caratese 38 11 18 9 44:45 51
11 USD Casatese 38 13 12 13 53:53 51
12 Caravaggio 38 12 10 16 44:51 46
13 Ciserano-Bergamo 38 13 6 19 49:58 45
14 Club Milano 38 11 12 15 41:44 45
15 Real Calepina 38 11 11 16 38:47 44
16 Legnano 38 11 9 18 34:50 42
17 Castellanzese 38 9 12 17 36:51 39
18 Crema 38 9 9 20 25:48 36
19 Tritium 38 6 11 21 27:57 29
20 Ponte San Pietro 38 5 9 24 31:63 24
Promotion - Serie D - Group B 2023/2024 (Play Offs)
Relegation - Serie D - Group B 2023/2024 (Play Out)