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Cardiff Draconians vs Afan Lido - H2H Analysis, Preview & Predictions

Wales Wales

Cymru South 2025/2026
Our Tip

Match Events

10' Event
Bowen D.
35' Event
Keetch C.
57' Event
Treharne H.

AI Match Summary

Cardiff Draconians in this Cymru South 2025/2026 matchup, with the score ending 4-1 — backing the pre-match view that favored Cardiff Draconians.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

41%
Cardiff Draconians
30%
Draws
29%
Afan Lido
Draw rate projection: 30% Favored: Cardiff Draconians

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

30% / Low Confidence
  • Cardiff Draconians have won more games recently than Afan Lido.
  • Cardiff Draconians are the model's pick here, at 42%.
  • This is a straightforward league game — the season-long numbers should hold up.
  • High conversion rates suggest a high-scoring game (Over 2.5 Probability: 78%).

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 92%
Over 1.5 Goals 82%
Over 2.5 Goals 78%
Over 3.5 Goals 70%
Over 4.5 Goals 32%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 73.8%
Cardiff Draconians Clean Sheet 15%
Afan Lido Clean Sheet 10%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Cardiff Draconians Afan Lido
Matches Played 29 30
Wins 10 9
Draws 4 3
Losses 15 18
Goals Scored 1.79 1.13
Goals Conceded 1.97 1.87
Expected Goals (xG) 1.63 1.56
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.10 1.40

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Apr 18, 2026 Cymru South
Cardiff Draconians vs Afan Lido
4:1
Sep 16, 2025 Cymru South
Afan Lido vs Cardiff Draconians
1:3

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

Cardiff Draconians Compare

Top Goalscorer Bowen D.
1 Goals
Assists Leader Treharne H.
1 Ast
Avg xG / game 1.25
Avg xA / game 0.81

Afan Lido Compare

Top Goalscorer Keetch C.
1 Goals
Avg xG / game 1.42
Avg xA / game 0.87

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Cardiff Draconians 41 / 100
Afan Lido 36 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Cardiff Draconians Afan Lido

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick Draw (X)
Secondary Pick Over 2.5 Goals or BTTS Yes
Correct Score 2:2
BTTS Outcome Yes (GG)
Over/Under Pick Over 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

These sides typically produce 4.50 goals when they meet.

Cardiff Draconians found the back of the net in 79% of recent matches (29 games).

Afan Lido has conceded goals in 73% of their last 30 outings.

Cardiff Draconians went unbeaten in 3 of their last 5 games.

Scoring Trends

Cardiff Draconians VS Afan Lido
1.13 Goals Scored 1.63
1.5 Goals Conceded 2.13
63% Over 1.5 75%
50% Over 2.5 75%
38% Over 3.5 50%

Recent Form & Match History

Cardiff Draconians

(Home)
03 Oct
Cardiff Draconians
1 : 1
Newport City
26 Sept
Cardiff Draconians
1 : 3
Caerau Ely
12 Sept
Cardiff Draconians
2 : 1
Baglan Dragons
22 Aug
Cardiff Draconians
4 : 2
Llanelli
15 Aug
Cardiff Draconians
1 : 4
Pontypridd United
Page 1 of 6

Afan Lido

(Away)
02 Oct
Caerau Ely
2 : 0
Afan Lido
25 Sept
Afan Lido
0 : 0
Newport City
11 Sept
Pontypridd United
0 : 1
Afan Lido
04 Sept
Baglan Dragons
2 : 1
Afan Lido
31 Aug
Afan Lido
0 : 0
Ynyshir Albions
Page 1 of 6

League Standings

Pos Team P W D L GD Pts
1 Trefelin 30 25 3 2 83:17 78
2 Cambrian United 30 24 4 2 75:20 76
3 Ammanford Town 30 17 9 4 49:26 60
4 Caerau Ely 30 17 6 7 66:34 57
5 Carmarthen Town 30 11 12 7 45:38 45
6 Aberystwyth 30 13 5 12 35:38 44
7 Cardiff Draconians 30 12 4 14 50:48 40
8 Llantwit Major 30 9 10 11 44:47 37
9 Treowen 30 10 7 13 51:63 37
10 Newport City 30 9 10 11 36:48 37
11 Pontypridd United 30 9 7 14 46:51 34
12 Afan Lido 30 9 3 18 32:57 30
13 Trethomas Bluebirds 30 6 11 13 45:62 29
14 Baglan Dragons 30 5 10 15 26:52 25
15 Ynyshir Albions 30 5 8 17 27:56 23
16 Cwmbran Celtic 30 1 7 22 25:78 10
Promotion - Cymru Premier (Main)