Sport Picks
Cardiff Draconians vs Newport City - H2H Analysis, Preview & Predictions
Wales
Cymru South 
Match Events
24'
24'
Amin D.
52'
52'
58'
58'
Cawley S.
Penalty Missed
AI Match Summary
The Cymru South game between Cardiff Draconians and Newport City finished 1-1.
Win Probability Meter
Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles
52%
35%
13%
Draw rate projection: 35% Favored: Cardiff Draconians
Model Confidence
Aggregate indicator score
52%
/ Medium Confidence
- Look at the last few games and Cardiff Draconians come out ahead of Newport City on wins alone.
- Model gives Cardiff Draconians a 52% chance of winning this.
- This is a straightforward league game — the season-long numbers should hold up.
- High conversion rates suggest a high-scoring game (Over 2.5 Probability: 78%).
- History favors Newport City here — 2 wins from the last 3 head-to-heads.
Goal Probability Engine
Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories
Over 0.5 Goals 92%
Over 1.5 Goals 82%
Over 2.5 Goals 78%
Over 3.5 Goals 44%
Over 4.5 Goals 20%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 73.8%
Cardiff Draconians Clean Sheet 16%
Newport City Clean Sheet 10%
Recent Team Form Analysis
Averages per match over historical game filters
| Metric | Cardiff Draconians | Newport City |
|---|---|---|
| Matches Played | 29 | 29 |
| Wins | 9 | 6 |
| Draws | 5 | 7 |
| Losses | 15 | 16 |
| Goals Scored | 1.76 | 1.14 |
| Goals Conceded | 2 | 1.9 |
| Expected Goals (xG) | 1.38 | 1.44 |
| Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) | 1.10 | 1.40 |
H2H
Historical prediction success rates across key markets
Oct 3, 2026 Cymru South
Cardiff Draconians vs Newport City
1:1
Mar 28, 2026 Cymru South
Cardiff Draconians vs Newport City
0:1
Dec 10, 2025 Cymru South
Newport City vs Cardiff Draconians
2:1
Key Player Impact Analysis
Key performers and expected goal involvement factors
Cardiff Draconians Compare
Top Goalscorer Amin D.
1 Goals Avg xG / game 1.06
Avg xA / game 0.69
Newport City Compare
Avg xG / game 1.31
Avg xA / game 0.8
SokaPicks Momentum Index
Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)
Cardiff Draconians 48 / 100
Newport City 22 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).
Attack & Defence Capability Index
Cardiff Draconians Newport City
AI Prediction Engine Forecast
Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets
Primary Pick Cardiff Draconians Win (1)
Secondary Pick Over 2.5 Goals or BTTS Yes
Correct Score 2:1
BTTS Outcome Yes (GG)
Over/Under Pick Over 2.5
SokaPicks Smart Insights
Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system
Newport City let in goals in 83% of their last 29 matches.
Attacking prowess: Cardiff Draconians scored in 79% of their last 29 outings.
Games between these two average 2.00 goals.
Cardiff Draconians went unbeaten in 4 of their last 5 games.
Scoring Trends
Cardiff Draconians VS Newport City
1.38 Goals Scored 1.13
1.75 Goals Conceded 1.38
75% Over 1.5 50%
63% Over 2.5 50%
50% Over 3.5 38%
Recent Form & Match History
Cardiff Draconians
(Home) 10 Oct
Cardiff Draconians
2 : 2 Carmarthen Town
03 Oct
Cardiff Draconians
1 : 1 Newport City
26 Sept
Cardiff Draconians
1 : 3 Caerau Ely
12 Sept
Cardiff Draconians
2 : 1 Baglan Dragons
22 Aug
Cardiff Draconians
4 : 2 Llanelli
Page 1 of 6
10 Oct
Cardiff Draconians
2 : 2 Carmarthen Town
03 Oct
Cardiff Draconians
1 : 1 Newport City
26 Sept
Cardiff Draconians
1 : 3 Caerau Ely
12 Sept
Cardiff Draconians
2 : 1 Baglan Dragons
22 Aug
Cardiff Draconians
4 : 2 Llanelli
Page 1 of 4
Newport City
(Away) 09 Oct
Caerphilly
3 : 2 Newport City
03 Oct
Cardiff Draconians
1 : 1 Newport City
25 Sept
Afan Lido
0 : 0 Newport City
28 Aug
Newport City
0 : 1 Ynyshir Albions
21 Aug
Newport City
0 : 1 Baglan Dragons
Page 1 of 6
09 Oct
Caerphilly
3 : 2 Newport City
03 Oct
Cardiff Draconians
1 : 1 Newport City
25 Sept
Afan Lido
0 : 0 Newport City
15 Aug
Pontardawe
0 : 4 Newport City
31 Jul
Llanelli
1 : 4 Newport City
Page 1 of 3
League Standings
| Pos | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Pure Swansea | 9 | 6 | 3 | 0 | 30:11 | 21 |
| 2 | Pontypridd United | 10 | 6 | 2 | 2 | 24:17 | 20 |
| 3 | Aberystwyth | 9 | 6 | 1 | 2 | 22:9 | 19 |
| 4 | Caerau Ely | 10 | 6 | 1 | 3 | 22:18 | 19 |
| 5 | Baglan Dragons | 11 | 5 | 2 | 4 | 12:12 | 17 |
| 6 | Ynyshir Albions | 9 | 4 | 4 | 1 | 15:9 | 16 |
| 7 | Carmarthen Town | 10 | 4 | 3 | 3 | 22:21 | 15 |
| 8 | Trethomas Bluebirds | 10 | 3 | 4 | 3 | 20:18 | 13 |
| 9 | Treowen | 10 | 4 | 1 | 5 | 19:21 | 13 |
| 10 | Afan Lido | 11 | 3 | 3 | 5 | 18:22 | 12 |
| 11 | Caerphilly | 10 | 3 | 2 | 5 | 12:19 | 11 |
| 12 | Pontardawe | 9 | 3 | 1 | 5 | 15:17 | 10 |
| 13 | Cardiff Draconians | 8 | 2 | 3 | 3 | 11:14 | 9 |
| 14 | Newport City | 8 | 2 | 2 | 4 | 12:9 | 8 |
| 15 | Llantwit Major | 9 | 2 | 2 | 5 | 8:21 | 8 |
| 16 | Llanelli | 11 | 0 | 2 | 9 | 9:33 | 2 |
Promotion - Cymru Premier 2027/2028 (Main)
