Sport Picks
Match Events
16'
16'
Davies I.
27'
27'
Chambers C.
45'
45'
Caicedo M.
AI Match Summary
Chelsea in this EFL Cup 2025/2026 tie, finishing 1-3. One-off knockout football delivers a decisive result.
Win Probability Meter
Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles
16%
30%
54%
Draw rate projection: 30% Favored: Chelsea
Model Confidence
Aggregate indicator score
54%
/ Medium Confidence
- Cardiff have won more games recently than Chelsea.
- 54% — that's where the model lands on Chelsea taking it.
- Cardiff have the better recent form, but knockout football is a different beast — one bad day ends the campaign.
- Historical meetings favor Chelsea, who have won 3 of the last 5 encounters.
- High conversion rates suggest a high-scoring game (Over 2.5 Probability: 78%).
- Chelsea have won 5 of the last 5 meetings between these two.
Goal Probability Engine
Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories
Over 0.5 Goals 99%
Over 1.5 Goals 100%
Over 2.5 Goals 78%
Over 3.5 Goals 50.5%
Over 4.5 Goals 23%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 38%
Cardiff Clean Sheet 10%
Chelsea Clean Sheet 68%
Recent Team Form Analysis
Averages per match over historical game filters
| Metric | Cardiff | Chelsea |
|---|---|---|
| Matches Played | 30 | 30 |
| Wins | 13 | 12 |
| Draws | 8 | 3 |
| Losses | 9 | 15 |
| Goals Scored | 2.13 | 1.93 |
| Goals Conceded | 1.53 | 1.93 |
| Expected Goals (xG) | 1.56 | 2.44 |
| Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) | 1.10 | 1.40 |
H2H
Historical prediction success rates across key markets
Dec 16, 2025 EFL Cup
Cardiff vs Chelsea
1:3
Mar 31, 2019 Premier League
Cardiff vs Chelsea
1:2
Sep 15, 2018 Premier League
Chelsea vs Cardiff
4:1
May 11, 2014 Premier League
Cardiff vs Chelsea
1:2
Oct 19, 2013 Premier League
Chelsea vs Cardiff
4:1
Key Player Impact Analysis
Key performers and expected goal involvement factors
Cardiff Compare
Top Goalscorer Turnbull D.
1 Goals Avg xG / game 1.2
Avg xA / game 0.78
Chelsea Compare
Top Goalscorer Garnacho A.
2 Goals Assists Leader Neto P.
1 Ast
Avg xG / game 2.22
Avg xA / game 1.36
SokaPicks Momentum Index
Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)
Cardiff 22 / 100
Chelsea 59 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).
Attack & Defence Capability Index
Cardiff Chelsea
AI Prediction Engine Forecast
Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets
Primary Pick Chelsea Win (2)
Secondary Pick Over 2.5 Goals or BTTS No
Correct Score 0:3
BTTS Outcome No (NG)
Over/Under Pick Over 2.5
SokaPicks Smart Insights
Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system
Cardiff's goal record stands at 80% scoring rate across 30 recent games.
Defensive concern: Chelsea conceded in 87% of 30 recent games.
Games between these two average 4.00 goals.
Solid form: Cardiff remains unbeaten in 2 of 5 recent matches.
Scoring Trends
Cardiff VS Chelsea
1.38 Goals Scored 3.13
1.75 Goals Conceded 1.75
100% Over 1.5 100%
63% Over 2.5 88%
38% Over 3.5 63%
Recent Form & Match History
Cardiff
(Home) 12 Sept
Bolton
1 : 0 Cardiff
08 Sept
Cardiff
1 : 1 Stoke City
05 Sept
Portsmouth
2 : 0 Cardiff
02 Sept
QPR
2 : 1 Cardiff
29 Aug
Cardiff
2 : 2 Sheffield Utd
Page 1 of 6
08 Sept
Cardiff
1 : 1 Stoke City
29 Aug
Cardiff
2 : 2 Sheffield Utd
25 Aug
Cardiff
1 : 2 Norwich
17 Aug
Cardiff
1 : 1 Wrexham
08 Aug
Cardiff
3 : 2 Swindon
Page 1 of 4
Chelsea
(Away) 18 Sept
Brentford
3 : 0 Chelsea
12 Sept
Chelsea
2 : 2 Hull City
09 Sept
Chelsea
6 : 3 Leeds
06 Sept
Arsenal
2 : 1 Chelsea
30 Aug
Chelsea
4 : 3 Brighton
Page 1 of 6
18 Sept
Brentford
3 : 0 Chelsea
06 Sept
Arsenal
2 : 1 Chelsea
24 Aug
Fulham
2 : 3 Chelsea
09 Aug
Johor DT
3 : 3 Chelsea
24 May
Sunderland
2 : 1 Chelsea
Page 1 of 3
Tournament Bracket & Draw
1/64-finals
Barrow 0
Preston 1
Wrexham 4
Hull City 3
Portsmouth 1
Reading 2
Gillingham 1
AFC Wimbledon 2
Burnley -
TBD -
West Brom 1
Derby 2
Cardiff 2
Swindon 1
Cheltenham 2
Exeter 0
Wolves -
TBD -
TBD -
West Ham -
Everton -
TBD -
Chesterfield 0
Mansfield 2
Tranmere 1
Burton 2
Harrogate 1
Lincoln City 3
TBD -
TBD -
TBD -
Chelsea -
Birmingham 2
Sheffield Utd 1
Blackpool 0
Port Vale 1
TBD -
TBD -
TBD -
Arsenal -
Barnsley 3
Fleetwood Town 2
Salford 0
Rotherham 1
Oxford Utd 1
Colchester 0
TBD -
Brighton -
Liverpool -
TBD -
TBD -
TBD -
Watford 1
Norwich 2
Northampton 0
Southampton 1
Crystal Palace -
TBD -
TBD -
TBD -
Newport 0
Millwall 1
Coventry 1
Luton 0
Newcastle Utd -
TBD -
TBD -
TBD -
Stoke City 1
Walsall 0
Blackburn 1
Bradford City 2
Tottenham -
TBD -
TBD -
TBD -
Accrington 2
Peterborough 1
Middlesbrough 0
Doncaster 4
Wigan 1
Notts County 0
Stockport County 3
Crewe 1
Bromley 2
Ipswich 1
Leyton Orient 0
Wycombe 1
Fulham -
TBD -
Bristol City 2
Milton Keynes Dons 0
Bristol Rovers 0
Cambridge Utd 2
Charlton 3
Stevenage 1
Swansea 3
Crawley Town 1
Plymouth 3
QPR 2
TBD -
TBD -
TBD -
Nottingham -
Sunderland -
TBD -
Huddersfield 3
Leicester 2
TBD -
TBD -
TBD -
Manchester City -
Bolton 3
Sheffield Wed 4
TBD -
Leeds -
Grimsby 3
Shrewsbury 1
TBD -
Manchester United -
Bournemouth -
TBD -
TBD -
Brentford -
TBD -
TBD -
TBD -
Aston Villa -
1/32-finals
Preston 2
Wrexham 3
Reading 2
AFC Wimbledon 1
Burnley 2
Derby 1
Cardiff 3
Cheltenham 0
Wolves 3
West Ham 2
Everton 2
Mansfield 0
Burton 0
Lincoln City 1
TBD -
Chelsea -
Birmingham 0
Port Vale 1
TBD -
Arsenal -
Barnsley 2
Rotherham 1
Oxford Utd 0
Brighton 6
Liverpool -
TBD -
Norwich 0
Southampton 3
Crystal Palace -
TBD -
Millwall 2
Coventry 1
Newcastle Utd -
TBD -
Stoke City 0
Bradford City 3
Tottenham -
TBD -
Accrington 0
Doncaster 2
Wigan 1
Stockport County 0
Bromley 1
Wycombe 2
Fulham 2
Bristol City 0
Cambridge Utd 3
Charlton 1
Swansea 2
Plymouth 1
TBD -
Nottingham -
Sunderland 1
Huddersfield 2
TBD -
Manchester City -
Sheffield Wed 2
Leeds 1
Grimsby 3
Manchester United 2
Bournemouth 0
Brentford 2
TBD -
Aston Villa -
1/16-finals
Wrexham 2
Reading 0
Burnley 1
Cardiff 2
Wolves 2
Everton 0
Lincoln City 1
Chelsea 2
Port Vale 0
Arsenal 2
Barnsley 0
Brighton 6
Liverpool 2
Southampton 1
Crystal Palace 2
Millwall 1
Newcastle Utd 4
Bradford City 1
Tottenham 3
Doncaster 0
Wigan 0
Wycombe 2
Fulham 1
Cambridge Utd 0
Swansea 3
Nottingham 2
Huddersfield 0
Manchester City 2
Sheffield Wed 0
Grimsby 1
Brentford 2
Aston Villa 1
1/8-finals
Wrexham 1
Cardiff 2
Wolves 3
Chelsea 4
Arsenal 2
Brighton 0
Liverpool 0
Crystal Palace 3
Newcastle Utd 2
Tottenham 0
Wycombe 1
Fulham 2
Swansea 1
Manchester City 3
Grimsby 0
Brentford 5
Quarter-finals
Cardiff 1
Chelsea 3
Arsenal 2
Crystal Palace 1
Newcastle Utd 2
Fulham 1
Manchester City 2
Brentford 0
Semi-finals
Chelsea 2
Arsenal 4
Newcastle Utd 1
Manchester City 5
Final
Arsenal 0
Manchester City 2
