Sport Picks

England

EFL Cup Cardiff City Stadium, Cardiff

Cardiff

3 - 2

Swindon

Our Tip

Match Events

Osho G.

Own Goal

29'

Salech Y.

(Penalty)

43'

Salech Y.

Assist: Ashford C.

Summary Win Prob Goals Form H2H Tactics Players Indices Predictions Timeline Accuracy Compare

AI Match Summary

First leg ended 3-2. This leg finished 3-2.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

49%

Cardiff

15%

Draws

36%

Swindon

Draw rate projection: 15% Favored: Cardiff

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

49% / Medium Confidence

Swindon haven't matched Cardiff's recent run of results.
Win probability leans Cardiff's way, sitting at 80%.
Cardiff have the better recent form, but knockout football is a different beast — one bad day ends the campaign.
Historical meetings favor Cardiff, who have won 2 of the last 5 encounters.
High conversion rates suggest a high-scoring game (Over 2.5 Probability: 78%).
History favors Cardiff here — 4 wins from the last 5 head-to-heads.

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 92%

Over 1.5 Goals 82%

Over 2.5 Goals 78%

Over 3.5 Goals 31.5%

Over 4.5 Goals 14%

Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 76.2%

Cardiff Clean Sheet 17%

Swindon Clean Sheet 10%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric	Cardiff	Swindon
Matches Played	30	28
Wins	13	10
Draws	8	5
Losses	9	13
Goals Scored	2.13	1.29
Goals Conceded	1.53	1.82
Expected Goals (xG)	1.31	1.38
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA)	1.10	1.40

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Aug 8, 2026 EFL Cup

Cardiff vs Swindon

3:2

Aug 12, 2025 EFL Cup

Cardiff vs Swindon

2:1

Jul 23, 2022 Club Friendly

Swindon vs Cardiff

2:4

Jan 1, 2003 League One

Cardiff vs Swindon

1:1

Aug 24, 2002 League One

Swindon vs Cardiff

0:1

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

Cardiff Compare

Top Goalscorer Salech Y.

1 Goals

Assists Leader Moylan J.

1 Ast

Avg xG / game 1.01

Avg xA / game 0.66

Swindon Compare

Top Goalscorer Glatzel P.

1 Goals

Avg xG / game 1.25

Avg xA / game 0.77

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Cardiff 75 / 100

Swindon 10 / 100

How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

Cardiff Swindon

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick Cardiff Win (1)

Secondary Pick Over 2.5 Goals or BTTS Yes

Correct Score 2:1

BTTS Outcome Yes (GG)

Over/Under Pick Over 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Cardiff found the back of the net in 80% of recent matches (30 games).

Swindon let in goals in 86% of their last 28 matches.

These sides typically produce 3.40 goals when they meet.

Swindon's recent record shows 4 losses from the last 5 matches.

Scoring Trends

Cardiff VS Swindon

1 Goals Scored 1.13

1.63 Goals Conceded 1.63

88% Over 1.5 75%

50% Over 2.5 75%

25% Over 3.5 38%

Recent Form & Match History

Cardiff

(Home)

19 Sept

Cardiff

3 : 1

Charlton

12 Sept

Bolton

1 : 0

Cardiff

08 Sept

Cardiff

1 : 1

Stoke City

05 Sept

Portsmouth

2 : 0

Cardiff

02 Sept

QPR

2 : 1

Cardiff

Page 1 of 6

Swindon

(Away)

22 Sept

Swindon

0 : 2

Newport

19 Sept

Salford

1 : 0

Swindon

15 Sept

Swindon

1 : 2

Crystal Palace U21

12 Sept

York City

4 : 0

Swindon

05 Sept

Swindon

3 : 1

Colchester

Page 1 of 6

Tournament Bracket & Draw

Scroll horizontally to view stages →

1/64-finals

Fleetwood Town 1

Chesterfield 0

Salford 1

Shrewsbury 2

Burton 1

Blackburn 2

Mansfield 0

Sheffield Utd 3

Ipswich -

TBD -

Leicester 1

Northampton 0

TBD -

Arsenal -

Manchester City -

TBD -

Cardiff 3

Swindon 2

Norwich 4

Milton Keynes Dons 1

Manchester United -

TBD -

Brighton -

Preston 2

Huddersfield 1

TBD -

Everton -

Sheffield Wed 1

Bolton 0

Wolves 3

Port Vale 0

Cambridge Utd 2

Barnet 1

QPR 1

Millwall 2

Newcastle Utd -

TBD -

Rotherham 1

West Brom 4

Sunderland -

TBD -

Stoke City 2

Oldham 0

TBD -

Hull City -

Wycombe 1

Stevenage 2

Bromley 1

Reading 2

Swansea 0

Birmingham 1

TBD -

Brentford -

Liverpool -

TBD -

Tottenham -

TBD -

Cheltenham 1

Charlton 3

Chelsea -

TBD -

Gillingham 0

Luton 3

Nottingham -

TBD -

Leeds -

Bristol City 0

Walsall 1

Leyton Orient 2

Oxford Utd 0

Bradford City 2

Rochdale 0

Burnley 2

Notts County 1

Watford 1

Crawley Town 0

Bristol Rovers 0

Peterborough 1

Barnsley 2

Wigan 1

Crewe 2

Accrington 1

Colchester 0

Southampton 2

West Ham 3

Portsmouth 1

Fulham -

TBD -

AFC Wimbledon 2

Newport 1

Crystal Palace -

TBD -

Stockport County 1

Doncaster 2

Middlesbrough 1

Wrexham 0

Bournemouth -

TBD -

Grimsby 1

Blackpool 3

Derby 1

Lincoln City 2

Plymouth 2

Exeter 0

TBD -

Coventry -

TBD -

Aston Villa -

1/32-finals

Fleetwood Town 4

Shrewsbury 0

Blackburn 1

Sheffield Utd 2

Ipswich 3

Leicester 1

TBD -

Arsenal -

Manchester City -

TBD -

Cardiff 1

Norwich 2

Manchester United -

TBD -

Brighton -

Preston 0

Everton 4

Sheffield Wed 0

Wolves 2

Cambridge Utd 0

Millwall 1

Newcastle Utd 3

West Brom 2

Sunderland -

TBD -

Stoke City 1

Hull City 2

Stevenage 0

Reading 3

Birmingham 1

Brentford 6

Liverpool -

TBD -

Tottenham 5

Charlton 1

Chelsea 2

Luton 0

Nottingham 0

Leeds 2

Walsall 0

Leyton Orient 1

Bradford City 1

Burnley 0

Watford 1

Peterborough 5

Barnsley 3

Crewe 2

Southampton 1

West Ham 4

Fulham 3

AFC Wimbledon 0

Crystal Palace -

TBD -

Doncaster 1

Middlesbrough 3

Bournemouth -

TBD -

Blackpool 1

Lincoln City 4

Plymouth 2

Coventry 4

TBD -

Aston Villa -

1/16-finals

Fleetwood Town 1

Sheffield Utd 0

Ipswich 2

Arsenal 4

Manchester City 5

Norwich 0

Manchester United 2

Brighton 3

Everton 1

Wolves 0

Millwall 0

Newcastle Utd 1

Sunderland 1

Hull City 0

Reading 1

Brentford 2

Liverpool 3

Tottenham 1

Chelsea 6

Leeds 3

Leyton Orient 1

Bradford City 3

Peterborough 4

Barnsley 3

West Ham 2

Fulham 3

Crystal Palace 3

Middlesbrough 0

Bournemouth 4

Lincoln City 0

Coventry 1

Aston Villa 3

1/8-finals

Fleetwood Town -

Arsenal -

Manchester City -

Brighton -

Everton -

Newcastle Utd -

Sunderland -

Brentford -

Liverpool -

Chelsea -

Bradford City -

Peterborough -

Fulham -

Crystal Palace -

Bournemouth -

Aston Villa -

Quarter-finals

TBD -

Semi-finals

TBD -

Final

TBD -

Cardiff vs Swindon

England

Cardiff

Swindon

Match Events

AI Match Summary

Win Probability Meter

Model Confidence

Goal Probability Engine

Recent Team Form Analysis

H2H

Key Player Impact Analysis

Cardiff Compare

Swindon Compare

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Attack & Defence Capability Index

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Scoring Trends

Recent Form & Match History

Cardiff

Swindon

Tournament Bracket & Draw

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