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Carina Gubin vs Stal Jasien

Poland Poland

III Liga - Group III 2025/2026
Sat, May 16, 2026
3 - 0
04:00 PM
Our Tip

AI Match Summary

Carina Gubin play Stal Jasien in the III Liga - Group III 2025/2026. Carina Gubin are favorites here. Recently, Carina Gubin averaged 1.36 goals scored and 1.64 conceded. Stal Jasien averaged 0.53 goals scored and 3.1 conceded. In past meetings, Carina Gubin won 2, Stal Jasien won 0, and they drew 0. Their last match on May 16, 2026 ended 3:0. Our numbers estimate xG of 2.38 for Carina Gubin and 1.13 for Stal Jasien. This points to a Carina Gubin double chance or over markets.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

71%
Carina Gubin
15%
Draws
14%
Stal Jasien
Draw rate projection: 15% Favored: Carina Gubin

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

95% / Very High Confidence
  • Carina Gubin picked up more points recently compared to Stal Jasien.
  • Model forecasts higher goal threat for the host (2.38 vs 1.13 xG).
  • Past meetings show a clear pattern favoring the home side.
  • High conversion rates suggest a high-scoring game (Over 2.5 Probability: 80%).

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 90%
Over 1.5 Goals 90%
Over 2.5 Goals 80%
Over 3.5 Goals 48%
Over 4.5 Goals 24%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 48%
Carina Gubin Clean Sheet 21%
Stal Jasien Clean Sheet 10%
First Half Goal 81%
Second Half Goal 86%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Carina Gubin Stal Jasien
Matches Played 28 30
Wins 10 1
Draws 6 1
Losses 12 28
Goals Scored 1.36 0.53
Goals Conceded 1.64 3.1
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.25 3.00

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

May 16, 2026 III Liga - Group III
Carina Gubin vs Stal Jasien
3:0
Oct 31, 2025 III Liga - Group III
Stal Jasien vs Carina Gubin
1:2

Sokapicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Carina Gubin 68 / 100
Stal Jasien 15 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Carina Gubin Stal Jasien

Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick Carina Gubin Win (1)
Secondary Pick Carina Gubin & Over 2.5
First Half Result Home Win (HT)
BTTS Outcome No (NG)
Over/Under Pick Over 2.5

Value Bet Detector (+EV)

Matches where our model probability exceeds implied bookmaker odds

1X2 Home Win
Value Edge +12.9%
1.59
Goals Over/Under Over 2.5 Goals
Value Edge +8%
1.35
*EV represents Expected Value. A positive value edge means the bookmaker has priced the selection significantly below its true statistical likelihood.

Attacking Heatmaps & Shot Locations

Dynamic heat overlays computed from tactical zone entries

Carina Gubin attacking → ← attacking Stal Jasien

Sokapicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Carina Gubin scored in 86% of their last 28 games.

Stal Jasien let in goals in 100% of their last 30 matches.

Games between these two average 3.00 goals.

Carina Gubin went unbeaten in 4 of their last 5 games.

Stal Jasien lost 5 of their last 5 games.

Interactive Team Comparison Slider

Side-by-side comparison of team metrics

36 Points in last 5 4
1.75 Goals expected (xG) 0.00
1.25 Goals conceded expected (xGA) 3.00

League Standings

PosTeam P W D L GD Pts
1Zielona Gora342110377:1773
2Polkowice34207764:4267
3BKS Sparta Katowice34188853:3462
4Skra Czestochowa34178968:5659
5Zaglebie II341761177:6157
6Goczalkowice Zdroj341591049:4654
7Kluczbork341571267:4352
8Warta Gorzow341571254:4752
9Gornik Zabrze II341561373:4451
10Sleza Wroclaw341471349:5749
11Woliborz341391248:4948
12Carina Gubin3412111150:5147
13Legnica II341371463:5846
14Karkonosze Jelenia Gora341291357:5645
15Polonia Nysa349101551:5837
16Starowice Dolne34762133:8127
17Pniowek Pawlowice34542528:7719
18Stal Jasien34213121:1057