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Carlisle vs Brackley

England England

National League 2025/2026 Brunton Park, Carlisle
Our Tip

Match Events

6' Event
Armstrong L.
Assist: Ajiboye D.
31' Event
Ellis J.
44'
Elliott-Wheeler A.

AI Match Summary

Carlisle in this National League 2025/2026 matchup, with the score ending 3-0 — backing the pre-match view that favored Carlisle.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

29%
Carlisle
30%
Draws
41%
Brackley
Draw rate projection: 30% Favored: Brackley

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

29% / Low Confidence
  • Brackley haven't matched Carlisle's recent run of results.
  • Win probability leans Carlisle's way, sitting at 80%.
  • This is a straightforward league game — the season-long numbers should hold up.
  • High conversion rates suggest a high-scoring game (Over 2.5 Probability: 78%).

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 92%
Over 1.5 Goals 82%
Over 2.5 Goals 78%
Over 3.5 Goals 31.5%
Over 4.5 Goals 14%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 73%
Carlisle Clean Sheet 20%
Brackley Clean Sheet 10%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Carlisle Brackley
Matches Played 26 27
Wins 12 5
Draws 7 7
Losses 7 15
Goals Scored 1.92 0.85
Goals Conceded 1.27 1.93
Expected Goals (xG) 1.69 0.94
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.10 1.40

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Apr 25, 2026 National League
Carlisle vs Brackley
3:0
Sep 3, 2025 National League
Brackley vs Carlisle
0:1

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

Carlisle Compare

Top Goalscorer Armstrong L.
1 Goals
Assists Leader Ellis J.
1 Ast
Avg xG / game 1.3
Avg xA / game 0.84

Brackley Compare

Avg xG / game 0.85
Avg xA / game 0.52

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Carlisle 76 / 100
Brackley 10 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Carlisle Brackley

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick Carlisle Win (1)
Secondary Pick Over 2.5 Goals or BTTS Yes
Correct Score 2:1
BTTS Outcome Yes (GG)
Over/Under Pick Over 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Carlisle's goal record stands at 88% scoring rate across 26 recent games.

Brackley's defensive record shows goals conceded in 85% of 27 matches.

These sides typically produce 2.00 goals when they meet.

Carlisle went unbeaten in 3 of their last 5 games.

Scoring Trends

Carlisle VS Brackley
1.63 Goals Scored 0.63
1.25 Goals Conceded 1.75
75% Over 1.5 63%
50% Over 2.5 50%
38% Over 3.5 25%

Recent Form & Match History

Carlisle

(Home)
19 Sept
Eastleigh
1 : 0
Carlisle
15 Sept
Carlisle
1 : 1
Forest Green
12 Sept
Carlisle
2 : 2
Southend
05 Sept
Boreham Wood
2 : 1
Carlisle
31 Aug
Carlisle
4 : 2
Scunthorpe
Page 1 of 6

Brackley

(Away)
19 Sept
Brackley
1 : 0
Portchester
12 Sept
Morecambe
3 : 0
Brackley
08 Sept
Buxton
5 : 0
Brackley
05 Sept
Brackley
1 : 0
Harborough
31 Aug
Chorley
2 : 2
Brackley
Page 1 of 6

League Standings

Pos Team P W D L GD Pts
1 York City 46 33 9 4 114:41 108
2 Rochdale 46 33 7 6 88:41 106
3 Carlisle 46 29 8 9 87:51 95
4 Boreham Wood 46 27 9 10 95:58 90
5 Scunthorpe 46 23 13 10 77:62 82
6 Southend 46 23 12 11 83:47 81
7 Forest Green 46 23 12 11 82:52 81
8 Halifax 46 20 10 16 69:66 70
9 Hartlepool 46 18 14 14 54:59 68
10 Woking 46 16 15 15 69:54 63
11 Tamworth 46 17 11 18 63:71 62
12 Boston United 46 15 14 17 63:67 59
13 Altrincham 46 17 6 23 55:65 57
14 Solihull Moors 46 14 14 18 71:72 56
15 Wealdstone 46 15 11 20 67:74 56
16 Yeovil 46 15 6 25 48:68 51
17 Eastleigh 46 13 11 22 57:80 50
18 Gateshead 46 14 8 24 54:90 50
19 Sutton 46 11 14 21 59:79 47
20 Aldershot 46 13 7 26 69:87 46
21 Brackley 46 10 12 24 40:75 42
22 Morecambe 46 9 11 26 66:103 38
23 Braintree 46 8 12 26 38:76 36
24 Truro 46 8 10 28 42:72 34
Promotion - League Two (Main)
Promotion - National League 2025/2026 (Play Offs)
Promotion - National League 2025/2026 (Play Offs)