Sport Picks
Carlisle vs Scunthorpe
England
National League 2025/2026 Brunton Park, Carlisle 
Match Events
22'
22'
Embleton E.
26'
26'
Embleton E.
40'
40'
Roberts C.
Assist: Whitehall D.
AI Match Summary
The National League 2025/2026 game between Carlisle and Scunthorpe finished 3-2, a result that aligned with the model's pre-match lean toward Carlisle.
Win Probability Meter
Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles
46%
20%
34%
Draw rate projection: 20% Favored: Carlisle
Model Confidence
Aggregate indicator score
46%
/ Medium Confidence
- Look at the last few games and Carlisle come out ahead of Scunthorpe on wins alone.
- 46% — that's where the model lands on Carlisle taking it.
- This is a straightforward league game — the season-long numbers should hold up.
- High conversion rates suggest a high-scoring game (Over 2.5 Probability: 78%).
- These two have met 5 times recently and Carlisle have taken 4 of them.
Goal Probability Engine
Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories
Over 0.5 Goals 99%
Over 1.5 Goals 88%
Over 2.5 Goals 78%
Over 3.5 Goals 44%
Over 4.5 Goals 20%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 75.8%
Carlisle Clean Sheet 13%
Scunthorpe Clean Sheet 10%
Recent Team Form Analysis
Averages per match over historical game filters
| Metric | Carlisle | Scunthorpe |
|---|---|---|
| Matches Played | 28 | 30 |
| Wins | 16 | 12 |
| Draws | 5 | 7 |
| Losses | 7 | 11 |
| Goals Scored | 2.07 | 1.87 |
| Goals Conceded | 1.25 | 1.63 |
| Expected Goals (xG) | 1.69 | 1.69 |
| Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) | 1.10 | 1.40 |
H2H
Historical prediction success rates across key markets
Aug 31, 2026 National League
Carlisle vs Scunthorpe
4:2
Feb 10, 2026 National League
Carlisle vs Scunthorpe
3:2
Oct 4, 2025 National League
Scunthorpe vs Carlisle
0:1
Jan 1, 2022 League Two
Scunthorpe vs Carlisle
0:1
Sep 18, 2021 League Two
Carlisle vs Scunthorpe
2:2
Key Player Impact Analysis
Key performers and expected goal involvement factors
Carlisle Compare
Top Goalscorer Ajiboye D.
2 Goals Assists Leader Embleton E.
1 Ast
Avg xG / game 1.3
Avg xA / game 0.84
Scunthorpe Compare
Top Goalscorer Roberts C.
1 Goals Assists Leader Beestin A.
1 Ast
Avg xG / game 1.54
Avg xA / game 0.94
SokaPicks Momentum Index
Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)
Carlisle 84 / 100
Scunthorpe 10 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).
Attack & Defence Capability Index
Carlisle Scunthorpe
AI Prediction Engine Forecast
Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets
Primary Pick Carlisle Win (1)
Secondary Pick Over 2.5 Goals or BTTS Yes
Correct Score 2:1
BTTS Outcome Yes (GG)
Over/Under Pick Over 2.5
SokaPicks Smart Insights
Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system
Carlisle found the back of the net in 86% of recent matches (28 games).
Defensive concern: Scunthorpe conceded in 80% of 30 recent games.
H2H data points to 3.40 goals as a typical output.
Solid form: Carlisle remains unbeaten in 4 of 5 recent matches.
Scoring Trends
Carlisle VS Scunthorpe
1.88 Goals Scored 2.13
1.25 Goals Conceded 1.5
88% Over 1.5 88%
50% Over 2.5 50%
38% Over 3.5 50%
Recent Form & Match History
Carlisle
(Home) 31 Aug
Carlisle
4 : 2 Scunthorpe
28 Aug
Wealdstone
1 : 1 Carlisle
22 Aug
Carlisle
4 : 1 Hornchurch
15 Aug
Yeovil
1 : 1 Carlisle
08 Aug
Carlisle
2 : 3 Worthing FC
Page 1 of 6
31 Aug
Carlisle
4 : 2 Scunthorpe
22 Aug
Carlisle
4 : 1 Hornchurch
08 Aug
Carlisle
2 : 3 Worthing FC
28 Jul
Carlisle
0 : 2 Salford
03 May
Carlisle
1 : 2 Boreham Wood
Page 1 of 3
Scunthorpe
(Away) 31 Aug
Carlisle
4 : 2 Scunthorpe
28 Aug
Scunthorpe
3 : 1 Solihull Moors
22 Aug
Eastleigh
3 : 2 Scunthorpe
18 Aug
Scunthorpe
4 : 0 Stoke City U21
15 Aug
Southend
1 : 0 Scunthorpe
Page 1 of 6
31 Aug
Carlisle
4 : 2 Scunthorpe
22 Aug
Eastleigh
3 : 2 Scunthorpe
15 Aug
Southend
1 : 0 Scunthorpe
28 Jul
North Ferriby FC
3 : 6 Scunthorpe
21 Jul
Buxton
2 : 0 Scunthorpe
Page 1 of 4
League Standings
| Pos | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | York City | 46 | 33 | 9 | 4 | 114:41 | 108 |
| 2 | Rochdale | 46 | 33 | 7 | 6 | 88:41 | 106 |
| 3 | Carlisle | 46 | 29 | 8 | 9 | 87:51 | 95 |
| 4 | Boreham Wood | 46 | 27 | 9 | 10 | 95:58 | 90 |
| 5 | Scunthorpe | 46 | 23 | 13 | 10 | 77:62 | 82 |
| 6 | Southend | 46 | 23 | 12 | 11 | 83:47 | 81 |
| 7 | Forest Green | 46 | 23 | 12 | 11 | 82:52 | 81 |
| 8 | Halifax | 46 | 20 | 10 | 16 | 69:66 | 70 |
| 9 | Hartlepool | 46 | 18 | 14 | 14 | 54:59 | 68 |
| 10 | Woking | 46 | 16 | 15 | 15 | 69:54 | 63 |
| 11 | Tamworth | 46 | 17 | 11 | 18 | 63:71 | 62 |
| 12 | Boston United | 46 | 15 | 14 | 17 | 63:67 | 59 |
| 13 | Altrincham | 46 | 17 | 6 | 23 | 55:65 | 57 |
| 14 | Solihull Moors | 46 | 14 | 14 | 18 | 71:72 | 56 |
| 15 | Wealdstone | 46 | 15 | 11 | 20 | 67:74 | 56 |
| 16 | Yeovil | 46 | 15 | 6 | 25 | 48:68 | 51 |
| 17 | Eastleigh | 46 | 13 | 11 | 22 | 57:80 | 50 |
| 18 | Gateshead | 46 | 14 | 8 | 24 | 54:90 | 50 |
| 19 | Sutton | 46 | 11 | 14 | 21 | 59:79 | 47 |
| 20 | Aldershot | 46 | 13 | 7 | 26 | 69:87 | 46 |
| 21 | Brackley | 46 | 10 | 12 | 24 | 40:75 | 42 |
| 22 | Morecambe | 46 | 9 | 11 | 26 | 66:103 | 38 |
| 23 | Braintree | 46 | 8 | 12 | 26 | 38:76 | 36 |
| 24 | Truro | 46 | 8 | 10 | 28 | 42:72 | 34 |
Promotion - League Two (Main)
Promotion - National League 2025/2026 (Play Offs)
Promotion - National League 2025/2026 (Play Offs)
