Sport Picks

Stadium Background

Carmarthen Town vs Abergavenny Town

Wales Wales

Cymru South 2023/2024 Richmond Park, Carmarthen
Our Tip

Match Events

25' Event
Langley J.
67' Event
Daley N.
79' Event
Gibbings B.

AI Match Summary

Carmarthen Town in this Cymru South 2023/2024 matchup, with the score ending 4-1 — backing the pre-match view that favored Carmarthen Town.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

90%
Carmarthen Town
6%
Draws
4%
Abergavenny Town
Draw rate projection: 6% Favored: Carmarthen Town

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

95% / Very High Confidence
  • Form's been kind to Carmarthen Town lately — more wins on the board than Abergavenny Town.
  • Model gives Carmarthen Town a 90% chance of winning this.
  • This is a straightforward league game — the season-long numbers should hold up.
  • High conversion rates suggest a high-scoring game (Over 2.5 Probability: 78%).
  • These two have met 4 times recently and Carmarthen Town have taken 3 of them.

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 92%
Over 1.5 Goals 82%
Over 2.5 Goals 78%
Over 3.5 Goals 12.5%
Over 4.5 Goals 6%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 33.6%
Carmarthen Town Clean Sheet 68%
Abergavenny Town Clean Sheet 14%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Carmarthen Town Abergavenny Town
Matches Played 39 29
Wins 14 3
Draws 14 2
Losses 11 24
Goals Scored 0.88 0
Goals Conceded 1.5 0

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Dec 15, 2023 Cymru South
Abergavenny Town vs Carmarthen Town
0:2
Dec 1, 2023 Cymru South
Carmarthen Town vs Abergavenny Town
4:1
Apr 7, 2023 Cymru South
Carmarthen Town vs Abergavenny Town
4:1
Oct 14, 2022 Cymru South
Abergavenny Town vs Carmarthen Town
3:1

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

Carmarthen Town Compare

Top Goalscorer Daley N.
2 Goals
Assists Leader Langley J.
1 Ast
Avg xG / game 0.68
Avg xA / game 0.44

Abergavenny Town Compare

Top Goalscorer Schwank R.
1 Goals
Avg xG / game 0
Avg xA / game 0

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Carmarthen Town 95 / 100
Abergavenny Town 10 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Carmarthen Town Abergavenny Town

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick CAR Win (1)
Secondary Pick Over 2.5 Goals & BTTS No
Correct Score 3:0
BTTS Outcome No (NG)
Over/Under Pick Over 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Abergavenny Town's defensive record shows goals conceded in 97% of 29 matches.

These sides typically produce 4.00 goals when they meet.

Abergavenny Town's recent record shows 5 losses from the last 5 matches.

Carmarthen Town scored in 74% of their last 39 games.

Scoring Trends

Carmarthen Town VS -
0.88 Goals Scored 0
1.5 Goals Conceded 0
75% Over 1.5 0%
38% Over 2.5 0%
25% Over 3.5 0%

Recent Form & Match History

Carmarthen Town

(Home)
14 Jul
Carmarthen Town
2 : 3
Briton Ferry
07 Jul
Carmarthen Town
1 : 3
Cardiff Metropolitan University
03 Jul
Carmarthen Town
4 : 2
Trefelin
18 Apr
Treowen
4 : 1
Carmarthen Town
04 Apr
Carmarthen Town
0 : 1
Pontypridd United
Page 1 of 8

Abergavenny Town

(Away)
20 Apr
Abergavenny Town
1 : 3
Caerau Ely
13 Apr
Cwmbran Celtic
6 : 0
Abergavenny Town
01 Apr
Llantwit Major
4 : 0
Abergavenny Town
29 Mar
Afan Lido
6 : 0
Abergavenny Town
16 Mar
Baglan Dragons
2 : 0
Abergavenny Town
Page 1 of 6

League Standings

PosTeamPWDLGDPts
1Briton Ferry30232587:3971
2Llanelli30204680:4064
3Ammanford Town30176760:4257
4Cambrian United30148860:3750
5Caerau Ely301541172:6049
6Carmarthen Town301211750:3947
7Afan Lido301441268:5646
8Goytre Utd301271158:5943
9Cwmbran Celtic301261269:6442
10Baglan Dragons301181146:4141
11Trefelin301081247:6338
12Llantwit Major30981344:5435
13Taffs Well30881444:4932
14Pontardawe30881452:7032
15Abertillery Bluebirds30362134:9415
16Abergavenny Town30222620:848
Promotion - Cymru Premier 2024/2025 (Main)