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Carmelita vs Santa Ana - H2H Analysis, Preview & Predictions

Costa Rica Costa Rica

Liga de Ascenso
Our Tip

Match Events

8' Event
Jimenez B.
16' Event
Gonzalez S.
35' Event
Duarte D.

AI Match Summary

The Liga de Ascenso game between Carmelita and Santa Ana finished 2-3, a result that aligned with the model's pre-match lean toward Santa Ana.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

45%
Carmelita
15%
Draws
40%
Santa Ana
Draw rate projection: 15% Favored: Carmelita

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

45% / Medium Confidence
  • Carmelita haven't matched Santa Ana's recent run of results.
  • Model gives Carmelita a 45% chance of winning this.
  • This is a straightforward league game — the season-long numbers should hold up.
  • High conversion rates suggest a high-scoring game (Over 2.5 Probability: 78%).

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 92%
Over 1.5 Goals 82%
Over 2.5 Goals 78%
Over 3.5 Goals 31.5%
Over 4.5 Goals 14%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 75%
Carmelita Clean Sheet 17%
Santa Ana Clean Sheet 10%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Carmelita Santa Ana
Matches Played 27 25
Wins 7 11
Draws 8 3
Losses 12 11
Goals Scored 1.3 1.44
Goals Conceded 1.48 1.64
Expected Goals (xG) 1.50 1.38
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.10 1.40

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Sep 26, 2026 Liga de Ascenso
Carmelita vs Santa Ana
1:0
Aug 9, 2026 Liga de Ascenso
Carmelita vs Santa Ana
2:3
Apr 12, 2026 Liga de Ascenso
Santa Ana vs Carmelita
0:0
Feb 25, 2026 Liga de Ascenso
Carmelita vs Santa Ana
1:2
Nov 16, 2025 Liga de Ascenso
Carmelita vs Santa Ana
2:0

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

Carmelita Compare

Top Goalscorer Gonzalez S.
1 Goals
Assists Leader Duarte D.
1 Ast
Avg xG / game 1.15
Avg xA / game 0.75

Santa Ana Compare

Top Goalscorer Jimenez B.
2 Goals
Assists Leader Flores C.
1 Ast
Avg xG / game 1.25
Avg xA / game 0.77

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Carmelita 84 / 100
Santa Ana 10 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Carmelita Santa Ana

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick Carmelita Win (1)
Secondary Pick Over 2.5 Goals or BTTS Yes
Correct Score 2:1
BTTS Outcome Yes (GG)
Over/Under Pick Over 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Santa Ana let in goals in 92% of their last 25 matches.

Carmelita scored in 78% of their last 27 games.

Historical meetings average 2.20 goals per match.

Carmelita went unbeaten in 4 of their last 5 games.

Scoring Trends

Carmelita VS Santa Ana
1.88 Goals Scored 1.38
1.38 Goals Conceded 1.13
88% Over 1.5 63%
63% Over 2.5 50%
38% Over 3.5 25%

Recent Form & Match History

Carmelita

(Home)
02 Oct
FC Moravia
0 : 3
Carmelita
26 Sept
Carmelita
1 : 0
Santa Ana
18 Sept
Carmelita
6 : 0
CS Uruguay
13 Sept
Cariari Pococi
1 : 1
Carmelita
07 Sept
Carmelita
1 : 2
Pitbulls
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Santa Ana

(Away)
04 Oct
Santa Ana
1 : 0
Cariari Pococi
02 Oct
Cariari Pococi
1 : 2
Santa Ana
26 Sept
Carmelita
1 : 0
Santa Ana
20 Sept
Aserri
1 : 0
Santa Ana
13 Sept
Santa Ana
2 : 1
Guadalupe
Page 1 of 5

League Standings (Group 1)

Pos Team P W D L GD Pts
1 ADR Jicaral 9 6 3 0 15:5 21
2 Quepos FC 9 5 1 3 13:7 16
3 Grecia 8 4 2 2 9:6 14
4 AD Rosario 8 4 1 3 11:10 13
5 AD Sarchi 8 3 2 3 8:11 11
6 Santa Cruz 9 2 0 7 11:19 6
7 Cofutpa 9 1 1 7 8:17 4
Promotion - Liga de Ascenso (Apertura - Play Offs)

League Standings (Group 2)

Pos Team P W D L GD Pts
1 Santa Ana 10 7 0 3 14:10 21
2 Pitbulls 10 5 4 1 18:13 19
3 Carmelita 10 4 3 3 19:11 15
4 Aserri 10 4 2 4 10:11 14
5 Cariari Pococi 10 3 4 3 11:11 13
6 FC Moravia 10 3 1 6 12:13 10
7 Guadalupe 10 2 3 5 13:19 9
8 CS Uruguay 10 2 3 5 9:18 9
Promotion - Liga de Ascenso (Apertura - Play Offs)