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Carpenedolo vs Pavia

Italy Italy

Serie C2/A 2009/2010
Our Tip

AI Match Summary

The Serie C2/A 2009/2010 game between Carpenedolo and Pavia finished 1-3, a result that aligned with the model's pre-match lean toward Pavia.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

12%
Carpenedolo
15%
Draws
73%
Pavia
Draw rate projection: 15% Favored: Pavia

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

73% / High Confidence
  • Carpenedolo haven't matched Pavia's recent run of results.
  • Model gives Pavia a 73% chance of winning this.
  • This is a straightforward league game — the season-long numbers should hold up.
  • High conversion rates suggest a high-scoring game (Over 2.5 Probability: 78%).

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 92%
Over 1.5 Goals 82%
Over 2.5 Goals 78%
Over 3.5 Goals 6.5%
Over 4.5 Goals 3%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 67.4%
Carpenedolo Clean Sheet 20%
Pavia Clean Sheet 14%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Carpenedolo Pavia
Matches Played 30 31
Wins 5 11
Draws 8 9
Losses 17 11
Goals Scored 0.73 1.19
Goals Conceded 1.7 1.29
Expected Goals (xG) 1.04 0.99
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.10 1.40

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Apr 25, 2010 Lega Pro C2/A
Carpenedolo vs Pavia
1:3
Nov 29, 2009 Lega Pro C2/A
Pavia vs Carpenedolo
3:0
Feb 18, 2009 Lega Pro C2/A
Carpenedolo vs Pavia
0:2
Sep 21, 2008 Lega Pro C2/A
Pavia vs Carpenedolo
2:2
Feb 24, 2008 Lega Pro C2/A
Carpenedolo vs Pavia
0:0

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Carpenedolo 20 / 100
Pavia 57 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Carpenedolo Pavia

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick Pavia Win (2)
Secondary Pick Over 2.5 Goals or BTTS Yes
Correct Score 1:2
BTTS Outcome Yes (GG)
Over/Under Pick Over 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

These sides typically produce 2.60 goals when they meet.

Difficult form: Pavia registered 3 defeats in their last 5 games.

Attacking prowess: Carpenedolo scored in 50% of their last 30 outings.

Pavia's defensive record shows goals conceded in 58% of 31 matches.

Scoring Trends

- VS Pavia
0 Goals Scored 0.88
0 Goals Conceded 0.88
0% Over 1.5 50%
0% Over 2.5 25%
0% Over 3.5 13%

Recent Form & Match History

Carpenedolo

(Home)
07 Aug
Carpenedolo
0 : 6
Mantova
14 Aug
Carpenedolo
0 : 2
Ospitaletto
30 May
Villacidrese
1 : 0
Carpenedolo
23 May
Carpenedolo
2 : 2
Villacidrese
09 May
Carpenedolo
0 : 1
Mezzocorona
Page 1 of 6

Pavia

(Away)
25 Jul
Pavia
0 : 4
AlbinoLeffe
19 Jul
Pisa
6 : 1
Pavia
10 May
Breno
0 : 1
Pavia
03 May
Chievo
2 : 1
Pavia
26 Apr
Pavia
3 : 0
Ciserano-Bergamo
Page 1 of 7

League Standings

Pos Team P W D L GD Pts
1 Sudtirol 34 18 9 7 33:23 63
2 Spezia 34 16 12 6 47:27 60
3 Legnano 34 16 11 7 49:31 59
4 Alghero 34 15 12 7 43:25 57
5 FeralpiSalo 34 14 15 5 41:32 57
6 Pavia 34 15 12 7 49:32 57
7 Rodengo Saiano 34 12 14 8 40:32 50
8 Crociati 34 9 15 10 36:37 42
9 Olbia 34 8 18 8 32:27 42
10 Sambonifacese 34 10 12 12 44:46 42
11 Valenzana 34 9 14 11 24:29 41
12 Pro Vercelli 34 11 8 15 31:37 41
13 Canavese 34 9 13 12 31:39 40
14 Mezzocorona 34 11 6 17 42:46 39
15 Villacidrese 34 10 9 15 38:43 39
16 Carpenedolo 34 9 8 17 34:50 35
17 Pro Belvedere V. 34 5 13 16 15:39 28
18 Pro Sesto 34 5 7 22 24:58 22
Relegation - Serie C2/A 2009/2010 (Play Out)
Relegation - Serie C2/A 2009/2010 (Play Out)
Relegation - Serie C2/A 2009/2010 (Play Out)
Relegation - Serie C2/A 2009/2010 (Play Out)
Promotion - Serie C1/A 2010/2011 (Main)
Promotion - Serie C2/A 2009/2010 (Play Offs)
Promotion - Serie C2/A 2009/2010 (Play Offs)
Promotion - Serie C2/A 2009/2010 (Play Offs)
Promotion - Serie C2/A 2009/2010 (Play Offs)