Sport Picks
Carpi vs US Pontedera
Italy
Serie C - Group B 2025/2026 Stadio Sandro Cabassi, Carpi 
Match Events
10'
10'
Casarini F.
28'
28'
Casarini F.
36'
36'
Sub
Mbambi J. In: Caponi A.
Out: Mbambi J.
AI Match Summary
The Serie C - Group B 2025/2026 game between Carpi and US Pontedera finished 2-0, a result that aligned with the model's pre-match lean toward Carpi.
Win Probability Meter
Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles
59%
15%
26%
Draw rate projection: 15% Favored: Carpi
Model Confidence
Aggregate indicator score
59%
/ Medium Confidence
- Look at the last few games and Carpi come out ahead of US Pontedera on wins alone.
- Carpi are the model's pick here, at 70%.
- This is a straightforward league game — the season-long numbers should hold up.
- Strong defensive structures favor a low-scoring, controlled fixture.
- Carpi have won 4 of the last 4 meetings between these two.
Goal Probability Engine
Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories
Over 0.5 Goals 85%
Over 1.5 Goals 53%
Over 2.5 Goals 25%
Over 3.5 Goals 6.5%
Over 4.5 Goals 3%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 32%
Carpi Clean Sheet 68%
US Pontedera Clean Sheet 16%
Recent Team Form Analysis
Averages per match over historical game filters
| Metric | Carpi | US Pontedera |
|---|---|---|
| Matches Played | 28 | 28 |
| Wins | 6 | 3 |
| Draws | 8 | 9 |
| Losses | 14 | 16 |
| Goals Scored | 1 | 0.82 |
| Goals Conceded | 1.54 | 1.5 |
| Expected Goals (xG) | 0.94 | 0.83 |
| Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) | 1.10 | 1.40 |
H2H
Historical prediction success rates across key markets
Apr 3, 2026 Serie C - Group B
Carpi vs US Pontedera
2:0
Nov 30, 2025 Serie C - Group B
US Pontedera vs Carpi
0:1
Feb 15, 2025 Serie C - Group B
US Pontedera vs Carpi
0:2
Oct 5, 2024 Serie C - Group B
Carpi vs US Pontedera
2:1
Key Player Impact Analysis
Key performers and expected goal involvement factors
Carpi Compare
Top Goalscorer Casarini F.
2 Goals Avg xG / game 0.72
Avg xA / game 0.47
US Pontedera Compare
Avg xG / game 0.75
Avg xA / game 0.46
SokaPicks Momentum Index
Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)
Carpi 77 / 100
US Pontedera 15 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).
Attack & Defence Capability Index
Carpi US Pontedera
AI Prediction Engine Forecast
Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets
Primary Pick Carpi Win (1)
Secondary Pick Under 2.5 Goals or BTTS No
Correct Score 1:0
BTTS Outcome No (NG)
Over/Under Pick Under 2.5
SokaPicks Smart Insights
Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system
US Pontedera's defensive record shows goals conceded in 86% of 28 matches.
Carpi found the back of the net in 64% of recent matches (28 games).
H2H data points to 2.00 goals as a typical output.
Solid form: Carpi remains unbeaten in 3 of 5 recent matches.
Scoring Trends
Carpi VS US Pontedera
0.88 Goals Scored 0.29
1.38 Goals Conceded 1
63% Over 1.5 43%
50% Over 2.5 14%
13% Over 3.5 0%
Recent Form & Match History
Carpi
(Home) 30 Aug
Carpi
3 : 3 Juventus U23
21 Aug
Union Brescia
3 : 1 Carpi
15 Aug
Carpi
3 : 2 Pianese
09 Aug
Mantova
0 : 1 Carpi
01 Aug
Carpi
1 : 2 Pistoiese
Page 1 of 6
30 Aug
Carpi
3 : 3 Juventus U23
15 Aug
Carpi
3 : 2 Pianese
01 Aug
Carpi
1 : 2 Pistoiese
18 Apr
Carpi
0 : 1 Forli FC
03 Apr
Carpi
2 : 0 US Pontedera
Page 1 of 3
US Pontedera
(Away) 12 Aug
Tau
0 : 1 US Pontedera
26 Apr
US Pontedera
0 : 2 Livorno
18 Apr
Sambenedettese
2 : 1 US Pontedera
12 Apr
US Pontedera
0 : 1 Ravenna
03 Apr
Carpi
2 : 0 US Pontedera
Page 1 of 6
12 Aug
Tau
0 : 1 US Pontedera
18 Apr
Sambenedettese
2 : 1 US Pontedera
03 Apr
Carpi
2 : 0 US Pontedera
21 Mar
Pianese
2 : 2 US Pontedera
09 Mar
Perugia
2 : 1 US Pontedera
Page 1 of 3
League Standings
| Pos | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Arezzo | 36 | 24 | 8 | 4 | 64:24 | 80 |
| 2 | Ascoli | 36 | 23 | 8 | 5 | 63:23 | 77 |
| 3 | Ravenna | 36 | 22 | 7 | 7 | 50:30 | 73 |
| 4 | Campobasso | 36 | 17 | 10 | 9 | 49:37 | 59 |
| 5 | Juventus U23 | 36 | 14 | 11 | 11 | 46:43 | 53 |
| 6 | Pianese | 36 | 11 | 17 | 8 | 37:34 | 50 |
| 7 | Pineto | 36 | 13 | 11 | 12 | 42:45 | 50 |
| 8 | Gubbio | 36 | 11 | 15 | 10 | 31:32 | 48 |
| 9 | Ternana | 36 | 14 | 11 | 11 | 44:40 | 48 |
| 10 | Vis Pesaro | 36 | 11 | 13 | 12 | 38:36 | 46 |
| 11 | Livorno | 36 | 12 | 7 | 17 | 39:51 | 43 |
| 12 | Forli FC | 36 | 10 | 10 | 16 | 41:52 | 40 |
| 13 | Carpi | 36 | 10 | 10 | 16 | 35:48 | 40 |
| 14 | Perugia | 36 | 8 | 14 | 14 | 38:44 | 38 |
| 15 | Guidonia 1937 | 36 | 8 | 14 | 14 | 30:36 | 38 |
| 16 | Sambenedettese | 36 | 8 | 13 | 15 | 30:37 | 37 |
| 17 | Sassari Torres | 36 | 6 | 18 | 12 | 32:45 | 36 |
| 18 | Bra | 36 | 6 | 14 | 16 | 37:54 | 32 |
| 19 | US Pontedera | 36 | 3 | 11 | 22 | 27:62 | 20 |
| 20 | Rimini | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0:0 | 0 |
Promotion - Serie B (Main)
Promotion - Serie C - Group A 2025/2026 (Play Offs)
Promotion - Serie C - Group A 2025/2026 (Play Offs)
Promotion - Serie C - Group A 2025/2026 (Play Offs)
Promotion - Serie C - Group A 2025/2026 (Play Offs)
Relegation - Serie C - Group B 2025/2026 (Play Out)
