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Carrarese vs Palermo Prediction & H2H Stats

Italy Italy

Serie B 2025/2026 Stadio dei Marmi, Carrara
Our Tip

Match Events

19' Event
Pohjanpalo J.
Assist: Le Douaron J.
44'
Torregrossa E.
46'
Sub
Gyasi E. In: Bereszynski B.
Out: Gyasi E.

AI Match Summary

Palermo in this Serie B 2025/2026 matchup, with the score ending 0-1 — backing the pre-match view that favored Palermo.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

6%
Carrarese
20%
Draws
74%
Palermo
Draw rate projection: 20% Favored: Palermo

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

74% / High Confidence
  • Carrarese haven't matched Palermo's recent run of results.
  • Win probability leans Palermo's way, sitting at 90%.
  • Regular Serie B 2025/2026 form gives a decent read on both sides.
  • Strong defensive structures favor a low-scoring, controlled fixture.

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 85%
Over 1.5 Goals 63%
Over 2.5 Goals 25%
Over 3.5 Goals 19%
Over 4.5 Goals 9%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 27.6%
Carrarese Clean Sheet 13%
Palermo Clean Sheet 68%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Carrarese Palermo
Matches Played 30 30
Wins 7 18
Draws 8 6
Losses 15 6
Goals Scored 0.9 2.03
Goals Conceded 1.2 1
Expected Goals (xG) 0.63 1.69
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.10 1.40

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Mar 8, 2026 Serie B
Carrarese vs Palermo
0:1
Nov 29, 2025 Serie B
Palermo vs Carrarese
5:0
May 13, 2025 Serie B
Palermo vs Carrarese
1:1
Dec 7, 2024 Serie B
Carrarese vs Palermo
1:0

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

Carrarese Compare

Avg xG / game 0.48
Avg xA / game 0.32

Palermo Compare

Top Goalscorer Pohjanpalo J.
1 Goals
Avg xG / game 1.54
Avg xA / game 0.94

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Carrarese 10 / 100
Palermo 95 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Carrarese Palermo

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick Palermo Win (2)
Secondary Pick Under 2.5 Goals or BTTS No
Correct Score 0:1
BTTS Outcome No (NG)
Over/Under Pick Under 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Palermo's defensive record shows goals conceded in 60% of 30 matches.

Games between these two average 2.25 goals.

Carrarese's goal record stands at 53% scoring rate across 30 recent games.

Solid form: Carrarese remains unbeaten in 1 of 5 recent matches.

Scoring Trends

Carrarese VS Palermo
0.38 Goals Scored 2.25
1.13 Goals Conceded 0.88
38% Over 1.5 88%
13% Over 2.5 38%
0% Over 3.5 38%

Recent Form & Match History

Carrarese

(Home)
19 Sept
Carrarese
0 : 1
Benevento
12 Sept
Catanzaro
1 : 0
Carrarese
05 Sept
Carrarese
0 : 1
Empoli
29 Aug
Ascoli
1 : 1
Carrarese
22 Aug
Carrarese
1 : 2
Mantova
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Palermo

(Away)
19 Sept
Palermo
2 : 1
Padova
13 Sept
Avellino
1 : 1
Palermo
07 Sept
Palermo
3 : 1
Sampdoria
03 Sept
Palermo
5 : 2
Mantova
30 Aug
Arezzo
2 : 3
Palermo
Page 1 of 6

League Standings

Pos Team P W D L GD Pts
1 Venezia 38 24 10 4 77:31 82
2 Frosinone 38 23 12 3 76:34 81
3 Monza 38 22 10 6 61:32 76
4 Palermo 38 20 12 6 61:33 72
5 Catanzaro 38 15 14 9 62:51 59
6 Modena 38 15 10 13 49:36 55
7 Juve Stabia 38 11 18 9 44:45 51
8 Avellino 38 13 10 15 43:55 49
9 Mantova 38 13 7 18 45:57 46
10 Padova 38 12 10 16 39:49 46
11 Cesena 38 12 10 16 45:56 46
12 Carrarese 38 10 14 14 47:52 44
13 Sampdoria 38 11 11 16 35:48 44
14 Entella 38 10 12 16 36:51 42
15 Empoli 38 9 14 15 47:54 41
16 Sudtirol 38 8 17 13 38:48 41
17 Bari 38 10 10 18 38:60 40
18 Reggiana 38 9 10 19 36:56 37
19 Spezia 38 8 11 19 43:59 35
20 Pescara 38 7 14 17 51:66 35
Promotion - Serie A (Main)
Promotion - Serie B 2025/2026 (Play Offs)
Promotion - Serie B 2025/2026 (Play Offs)
Relegation - Serie B 2025/2026 (Play Out)