Sport Picks

Stadium Background

Carrarese vs Spezia

Italy Italy

Serie B 2025/2026 Stadio dei Marmi, Carrara
Our Tip

Match Events

16'
Bonfanti G.
17' Event
Calabrese N.
Assist: Zuelli E.
23' Event
Finotto M.
Assist: Zanon S.

AI Match Summary

The Serie B 2025/2026 game between Carrarese and Spezia finished 3-1, a result that aligned with the model's pre-match lean toward Carrarese.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

5%
Carrarese
15%
Draws
80%
Spezia
Draw rate projection: 15% Favored: Spezia

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

80% / Very High Confidence
  • Carrarese haven't matched Spezia's recent run of results.
  • Spezia are the model's pick here, at 90%.
  • Regular Serie B 2025/2026 form gives a decent read on both sides.
  • Strong defensive structures favor a low-scoring, controlled fixture.

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 85%
Over 1.5 Goals 69%
Over 2.5 Goals 25%
Over 3.5 Goals 6.5%
Over 4.5 Goals 3%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 30.8%
Carrarese Clean Sheet 15%
Spezia Clean Sheet 68%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Carrarese Spezia
Matches Played 30 29
Wins 7 11
Draws 8 8
Losses 15 10
Goals Scored 0.9 1.55
Goals Conceded 1.2 1.31
Expected Goals (xG) 0.56 1.56
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.10 1.40

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Apr 6, 2026 Serie B
Carrarese vs Spezia
3:1
Aug 24, 2025 Serie B
Spezia vs Carrarese
0:2
Jan 19, 2025 Serie B
Carrarese vs Spezia
0:4
Sep 22, 2024 Serie B
Spezia vs Carrarese
4:2
Mar 11, 2012 Lega Pro C1/B
Spezia vs Carrarese
1:1

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

Carrarese Compare

Top Goalscorer Calabrese N.
1 Goals
Assists Leader Finotto M.
1 Ast
Avg xG / game 0.43
Avg xA / game 0.28

Spezia Compare

Top Goalscorer Valoti M.
1 Goals
Avg xG / game 1.42
Avg xA / game 0.87

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Carrarese 10 / 100
Spezia 95 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Carrarese Spezia

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick Spezia Win (2)
Secondary Pick Under 2.5 Goals or BTTS No
Correct Score 0:1
BTTS Outcome No (NG)
Over/Under Pick Under 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

H2H data points to 3.60 goals as a typical output.

Spezia has conceded goals in 76% of their last 29 outings.

Carrarese found the back of the net in 53% of recent matches (30 games).

Carrarese went unbeaten in 1 of their last 5 games.

Scoring Trends

Carrarese VS Spezia
0.5 Goals Scored 1.88
1.25 Goals Conceded 0.63
50% Over 1.5 88%
25% Over 2.5 38%
0% Over 3.5 13%

Recent Form & Match History

Carrarese

(Home)
19 Sept
Carrarese
0 : 1
Benevento
12 Sept
Catanzaro
1 : 0
Carrarese
05 Sept
Carrarese
0 : 1
Empoli
29 Aug
Ascoli
1 : 1
Carrarese
22 Aug
Carrarese
1 : 2
Mantova
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Spezia

(Away)
16 Sept
Perugia
0 : 3
Spezia
12 Sept
Spezia
2 : 0
Livorno
06 Sept
Sambenedettese
1 : 2
Spezia
02 Sept
Spezia
3 : 0
Vado
29 Aug
Spezia
1 : 0
Campobasso
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League Standings

Pos Team P W D L GD Pts
1 Venezia 38 24 10 4 77:31 82
2 Frosinone 38 23 12 3 76:34 81
3 Monza 38 22 10 6 61:32 76
4 Palermo 38 20 12 6 61:33 72
5 Catanzaro 38 15 14 9 62:51 59
6 Modena 38 15 10 13 49:36 55
7 Juve Stabia 38 11 18 9 44:45 51
8 Avellino 38 13 10 15 43:55 49
9 Mantova 38 13 7 18 45:57 46
10 Padova 38 12 10 16 39:49 46
11 Cesena 38 12 10 16 45:56 46
12 Carrarese 38 10 14 14 47:52 44
13 Sampdoria 38 11 11 16 35:48 44
14 Entella 38 10 12 16 36:51 42
15 Empoli 38 9 14 15 47:54 41
16 Sudtirol 38 8 17 13 38:48 41
17 Bari 38 10 10 18 38:60 40
18 Reggiana 38 9 10 19 36:56 37
19 Spezia 38 8 11 19 43:59 35
20 Pescara 38 7 14 17 51:66 35
Promotion - Serie A (Main)
Promotion - Serie B 2025/2026 (Play Offs)
Promotion - Serie B 2025/2026 (Play Offs)
Relegation - Serie B 2025/2026 (Play Out)