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Cartagena vs Patriotas - H2H Analysis, Preview & Predictions

Colombia Colombia

Primera B Estadio Jaime Morón León, Cartagena
Mon, Oct 19, 2026
VS
11:00 PM
Our Tip

AI Match Summary

Cartagena host Patriotas in the Primera B. This matchup has a clear pattern when you look at past meetings. Cartagena have averaged 1.66 scored and 1.34 conceded recently, against Patriotas's 1.07 scored and 1.31 conceded. Head-to-head, Cartagena have won 0 to Patriotas's 4, with 1 draws. They last met on Apr 13, 2026, ending 1:0. Model xG sits at 1.63 vs 1.31, favoring Cartagena. The model's pick is Home (1) to win or Over 2.5 goals.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

28%
Cartagena
35%
Draws
37%
Patriotas
Draw rate projection: 35% Favored: Patriotas

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

28% / Low Confidence
  • Look at the last few games and Cartagena come out ahead of Patriotas on wins alone.
  • Model gives Cartagena a 28% chance of winning this.
  • Regular Primera B form gives a decent read on both sides.
  • High conversion rates suggest a high-scoring game (Over 2.5 Probability: 78%).
  • Patriotas have won 4 of the last 5 meetings between these two.

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 92%
Over 1.5 Goals 82%
Over 2.5 Goals 78%
Over 3.5 Goals 31.5%
Over 4.5 Goals 14%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 75.8%
Cartagena Clean Sheet 18%
Patriotas Clean Sheet 10%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Cartagena Patriotas
Matches Played 32 29
Wins 12 8
Draws 10 10
Losses 10 11
Goals Scored 1.66 1.07
Goals Conceded 1.34 1.31
Expected Goals (xG) 1.63 1.31
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.10 1.40

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Apr 13, 2026 Primera B
Patriotas vs Cartagena
1:0
Nov 20, 2025 Primera B
Cartagena vs Patriotas
0:1
Nov 7, 2025 Primera B
Patriotas vs Cartagena
2:2
Sep 16, 2025 Primera B
Patriotas vs Cartagena
3:1
Apr 17, 2025 Primera B
Cartagena vs Patriotas
1:3

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Cartagena 40 / 100
Patriotas 26 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Cartagena Patriotas

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick Cartagena Win (1)
Secondary Pick Over 2.5 Goals or BTTS Yes
Correct Score 2:1
BTTS Outcome Yes (GG)
Over/Under Pick Over 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Cartagena scored in 81% of their last 32 games.

Patriotas let in goals in 69% of their last 29 matches.

Games between these two average 2.80 goals.

Cartagena has registered 3 games unbeaten in their last 5 outings.

Scoring Trends

Cartagena VS Patriotas
1.63 Goals Scored 1.38
1.25 Goals Conceded 1.63
75% Over 1.5 75%
50% Over 2.5 63%
25% Over 3.5 38%

Recent Form & Match History

Cartagena

(Home)
08 Oct
Atletico F.C.
2 : 2
Cartagena
04 Oct
Cartagena
2 : 3
Boca Juniors de Cali
29 Sept
Union Magdalena
1 : 1
Cartagena
22 Sept
Cartagena
0 : 0
Envigado
12 Sept
Inter Palmira
2 : 1
Cartagena
Page 1 of 7

Patriotas

(Away)
11 Oct
Bogota
0 : 0
Patriotas
03 Oct
Patriotas
0 : 1
Independiente Valle del Cauca
26 Sept
Boca Juniors de Cali
4 : 1
Patriotas
18 Sept
Patriotas
1 : 2
Union Magdalena
13 Sept
Quindio
1 : 2
Patriotas
Page 1 of 6

League Standings

Pos Team P W D L GD Pts
1 Independiente Valle del Cauca 12 7 3 2 16:7 24
2 Real Cundinamarca 12 7 2 3 19:11 23
3 Tigres Futbol Club 12 6 4 2 14:5 22
4 Boca Juniors de Cali 11 5 3 3 18:14 18
5 Patriotas 12 5 3 4 17:17 18
6 Cartagena 12 4 4 4 21:16 16
7 Quindio 11 4 4 3 9:8 16
8 Atletico F.C. 12 4 3 5 15:19 15
9 Real Santander 12 3 6 3 14:18 15
10 Inter Palmira 11 4 2 5 8:12 14
11 Bogota 12 3 4 5 9:13 13
12 Envigado 11 2 6 3 12:11 12
13 Union Magdalena 11 3 3 5 10:12 12
14 Orsomarso 11 2 4 5 7:11 10
15 Leones 11 2 4 5 8:17 10
16 Barranquilla 11 2 3 6 11:17 9
Promotion - Primera B (Clausura - Quadrangular)