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Cartagines vs Herediano

Costa Rica Costa Rica

Primera Division 2025/2026 Estadio José Rafael Fello Meza, Cartago
Our Tip

Match Events

9'
Hernandez M.
38'
Lopez D.
45'
Rubio E.

AI Match Summary

This match ends 0-1, with Herediano advancing. Cup football at its most decisive.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

53%
Cartagines
15%
Draws
32%
Herediano
Draw rate projection: 15% Favored: Cartagines

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

53% / Medium Confidence
  • Cartagines's 1.7 goals per match outpaces what Herediano have produced (1.07).
  • 53% — that's where the model lands on Cartagines taking it.
  • Both sides arrive with similar form. In a knockout tie, that makes this genuinely unpredictable.
  • Historical meetings favor Herediano, who have won 2 of the last 5 encounters.
  • Strong defensive structures favor a low-scoring, controlled fixture.

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 91%
Over 1.5 Goals 81.5%
Over 2.5 Goals 25%
Over 3.5 Goals 22%
Over 4.5 Goals 10%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 28.8%
Cartagines Clean Sheet 68%
Herediano Clean Sheet 10%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Cartagines Herediano
Matches Played 30 30
Wins 15 15
Draws 6 4
Losses 9 11
Goals Scored 1.7 1.07
Goals Conceded 1.17 0.83
Expected Goals (xG) 1.94 0.94
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.10 1.40

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Aug 30, 2026 Primera Division
Cartagines vs Herediano
1:0
May 10, 2026 Primera Division
Herediano vs Cartagines
0:0
May 3, 2026 Primera Division
Cartagines vs Herediano
0:1
Apr 11, 2026 Primera Division
Cartagines vs Herediano
1:2
Feb 15, 2026 Primera Division
Herediano vs Cartagines
1:0

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

Cartagines Compare

Avg xG / game 1.49
Avg xA / game 0.97

Herediano Compare

Top Goalscorer Aguilar E.
1 Goals
Avg xG / game 0.85
Avg xA / game 0.52

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Cartagines 95 / 100
Herediano 10 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Cartagines Herediano

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick Cartagines Win (1)
Secondary Pick Under 2.5 Goals or BTTS No
Correct Score 1:0
BTTS Outcome No (NG)
Over/Under Pick Under 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Cartagines scored in 73% of their last 30 games.

Solid form: Cartagines remains unbeaten in 4 of 5 recent matches.

Difficult form: Herediano registered 3 defeats in their last 5 games.

Herediano has conceded goals in 50% of their last 30 outings.

Scoring Trends

Cartagines VS Herediano
2.38 Goals Scored 1
0.88 Goals Conceded 1.5
88% Over 1.5 75%
63% Over 2.5 50%
50% Over 3.5 13%

Recent Form & Match History

Cartagines

(Home)
21 Sept
San Carlos
1 : 0
Cartagines
17 Sept
Cartagines
3 : 2
Saprissa
14 Sept
Cartagines
3 : 1
Alajuelense
10 Sept
Saprissa
2 : 2
Cartagines
06 Sept
Puntarenas FC
1 : 3
Cartagines
Page 1 of 6

Herediano

(Away)
20 Sept
Saprissa
2 : 0
Herediano
13 Sept
Escorpiones
0 : 2
Herediano
05 Sept
Herediano
2 : 3
Zeledon
30 Aug
Cartagines
1 : 0
Herediano
27 Aug
Herediano
2 : 1
Antigua
Page 1 of 6

Tournament Bracket & Draw

Semi-finals
Herediano 1
Cartagines 0
Saprissa 3
Liberia 1
Final
Herediano 3
Saprissa 2