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Caruaru vs Aguia FC

Brazil Brazil

Pernambucano 2
Our Tip

Match Events

24' Event
Gomes L.
80' Event
Gomes W.
86' Event
Jefferson Silva

AI Match Summary

Caruaru in this Pernambucano 2 matchup, with the score ending 2-1 — backing the pre-match view that favored Caruaru.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

40%
Caruaru
33%
Draws
27%
Aguia FC
Draw rate projection: 33% Favored: Caruaru

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

70% / Medium Confidence
  • Aguia FC haven't matched Caruaru's recent run of results.
  • 40% — that's where the model lands on Caruaru taking it.
  • Regular Pernambucano 2 form gives a decent read on both sides.
  • Strong defensive structures favor a low-scoring, controlled fixture.
  • History favors Caruaru here — 2 wins from the last 3 head-to-heads.

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 91%
Over 1.5 Goals 81.5%
Over 2.5 Goals 25%
Over 3.5 Goals 6.5%
Over 4.5 Goals 3%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 32.400000000000006%
Caruaru Clean Sheet 68%
Aguia FC Clean Sheet 11%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Caruaru Aguia FC
Matches Played 31 21
Wins 7 6
Draws 9 4
Losses 15 11
Goals Scored 1.25 0.88
Goals Conceded 0.75 1.25
Expected Goals (xG) 1.25 0.88
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 0.75 1.25

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Oct 18, 2025 Pernambucano 2
Caruaru vs Aguia FC
2:1
Sep 20, 2025 Pernambucano 2
Aguia FC vs Caruaru
1:2
Oct 19, 2024 Pernambucano 3
Aguia FC vs Caruaru
1:1

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

Caruaru Compare

Top Goalscorer Gomes L.
1 Goals
Assists Leader Jefferson Silva
1 Ast
Avg xG / game 0.96
Avg xA / game 0.63

Aguia FC Compare

Top Goalscorer Gomes W.
1 Goals
Avg xG / game 0.8
Avg xA / game 0.49

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Caruaru 50 / 100
Aguia FC 27 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Caruaru Aguia FC

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick CAR Win (1)
Secondary Pick Under 2.5 Goals & BTTS No
Correct Score 1:0
BTTS Outcome No (NG)
Over/Under Pick Under 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Aguia FC's defensive record shows goals conceded in 90% of 21 matches.

Historical meetings average 2.67 goals per match.

Caruaru went unbeaten in 4 of their last 5 games.

Away concern: Aguia FC has suffered 3 losses in 5 recent matches.

Scoring Trends

Caruaru VS Aguia FC
1.25 Goals Scored 0.88
0.75 Goals Conceded 1.25
88% Over 1.5 75%
13% Over 2.5 25%
0% Over 3.5 13%

Recent Form & Match History

Caruaru

(Home)
26 Oct
America PE
2 : 1
Caruaru
18 Oct
Caruaru
2 : 1
Aguia FC
08 Oct
Ypiranga
1 : 1
Caruaru
04 Oct
Caruaru
0 : 0
CA Porto
27 Sept
Academica Vitoria
1 : 1
Caruaru
Page 1 of 7

Aguia FC

(Away)
18 Oct
Caruaru
2 : 1
Aguia FC
11 Oct
Aguia FC
2 : 0
Ypiranga
08 Oct
CA Porto
1 : 0
Aguia FC
04 Oct
Aguia FC
1 : 0
Academica Vitoria
20 Sept
Aguia FC
1 : 2
Caruaru
Page 1 of 5

League Standings (Group 1)

PosTeamPWDLGDPts
1Academica Vitoria83419:613
2Caruaru83418:713
3CA Porto82516:411
4Aguia FC82156:97
5Ypiranga81433:67
Promotion - Pernambucano 2 (Play Offs)

League Standings (Group 2)

PosTeamPWDLGDPts
1America PE871025:522
2Centro Limoeirense84229:1314
3Belo Jardim841312:913
4Ipojuca812511:185
5Vera Cruz80266:182
Promotion - Pernambucano 2 (Play Offs)