Sport Picks
Match Events
35'
35'
Larrazabal G.
Assist: Livramento D.
52'
52'
Blesa J.
59'
59'
Sub
Perez S. In: Brito R.
Out: Perez S.
AI Match Summary
Neither side could be separated in this Liga Portugal 2025/2026 matchup, with the score ending 1-1.
Win Probability Meter
Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles
40%
20%
40%
Draw rate projection: 20% Favored: Draw
Model Confidence
Aggregate indicator score
40%
/ Low Confidence
- Form's been kind to Rio Ave lately — more wins on the board than Casa Pia.
- Model puts this one close, with a 44% draw probability.
- Regular Liga Portugal 2025/2026 form gives a decent read on both sides.
- Strong defensive structures favor a low-scoring, controlled fixture.
Goal Probability Engine
Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories
Over 0.5 Goals 85%
Over 1.5 Goals 69%
Over 2.5 Goals 25%
Over 3.5 Goals 22%
Over 4.5 Goals 10%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 31.200000000000003%
Casa Pia Clean Sheet 10%
Rio Ave Clean Sheet 68%
Recent Team Form Analysis
Averages per match over historical game filters
| Metric | Casa Pia | Rio Ave |
|---|---|---|
| Matches Played | 30 | 31 |
| Wins | 6 | 10 |
| Draws | 9 | 6 |
| Losses | 15 | 15 |
| Goals Scored | 0.8 | 1.23 |
| Goals Conceded | 1.77 | 1.71 |
| Expected Goals (xG) | 0.94 | 2.19 |
| Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) | 1.10 | 1.40 |
H2H
Historical prediction success rates across key markets
May 16, 2026 Liga Portugal
Casa Pia vs Rio Ave
1:1
Jan 4, 2026 Liga Portugal
Rio Ave vs Casa Pia
3:1
Mar 29, 2025 Liga Portugal
Casa Pia vs Rio Ave
2:1
Jan 12, 2025 Taça de Portugal
Casa Pia vs Rio Ave
1:3
Nov 2, 2024 Liga Portugal
Rio Ave vs Casa Pia
2:2
Key Player Impact Analysis
Key performers and expected goal involvement factors
Casa Pia Compare
Top Goalscorer Larrazabal G.
1 Goals Avg xG / game 0.72
Avg xA / game 0.47
Rio Ave Compare
Top Goalscorer Blesa J.
1 Goals Avg xG / game 1.99
Avg xA / game 1.22
SokaPicks Momentum Index
Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)
Casa Pia 34 / 100
Rio Ave 32 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).
Attack & Defence Capability Index
Casa Pia Rio Ave
AI Prediction Engine Forecast
Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets
Primary Pick Rio Ave Win (2)
Secondary Pick Under 2.5 Goals or BTTS No
Correct Score 0:1
BTTS Outcome No (NG)
Over/Under Pick Under 2.5
SokaPicks Smart Insights
Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system
Rio Ave's defensive record shows goals conceded in 81% of 31 matches.
These sides typically produce 3.40 goals when they meet.
Away concern: Rio Ave has suffered 3 losses in 5 recent matches.
Casa Pia's goal record stands at 50% scoring rate across 30 recent games.
Scoring Trends
Casa Pia VS Rio Ave
0.38 Goals Scored 1.5
2.88 Goals Conceded 1.5
63% Over 1.5 75%
38% Over 2.5 50%
38% Over 3.5 50%
Recent Form & Match History
Casa Pia
(Home) 20 Sept
Estoril
1 : 2 Casa Pia
12 Sept
Casa Pia
1 : 4 FC Porto
06 Sept
Vitoria Guimaraes
0 : 0 Casa Pia
30 Aug
Casa Pia
0 : 1 Moreirense
24 Aug
Gil Vicente
2 : 0 Casa Pia
Page 1 of 6
12 Sept
Casa Pia
1 : 4 FC Porto
30 Aug
Casa Pia
0 : 1 Moreirense
17 Aug
Casa Pia
0 : 7 Benfica
28 May
Casa Pia
2 : 0 Torreense
16 May
Casa Pia
1 : 1 Rio Ave
Page 1 of 3
Rio Ave
(Away) 19 Sept
Alverca
1 : 0 Rio Ave
14 Sept
Rio Ave
3 : 3 Estrela da Amadora
06 Sept
Santa Clara
4 : 0 Rio Ave
28 Aug
Rio Ave
0 : 4 Sporting CP
22 Aug
Estoril
0 : 2 Rio Ave
Page 1 of 7
19 Sept
Alverca
1 : 0 Rio Ave
06 Sept
Santa Clara
4 : 0 Rio Ave
22 Aug
Estoril
0 : 2 Rio Ave
09 Aug
Gil Vicente
1 : 0 Rio Ave
15 Jul
Portimonense
0 : 3 Rio Ave
Page 1 of 3
League Standings
| Pos | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | FC Porto | 34 | 28 | 4 | 2 | 66:18 | 88 |
| 2 | Sporting CP | 34 | 25 | 7 | 2 | 89:24 | 82 |
| 3 | Benfica | 34 | 23 | 11 | 0 | 74:25 | 80 |
| 4 | Braga | 34 | 16 | 11 | 7 | 64:36 | 59 |
| 5 | Famalicao | 34 | 15 | 11 | 8 | 42:29 | 56 |
| 6 | Gil Vicente | 34 | 13 | 11 | 10 | 47:38 | 50 |
| 7 | Moreirense | 34 | 12 | 7 | 15 | 37:49 | 43 |
| 8 | Arouca | 34 | 12 | 6 | 16 | 47:64 | 42 |
| 9 | Vitoria Guimaraes | 34 | 12 | 6 | 16 | 39:51 | 42 |
| 10 | Estoril | 34 | 10 | 9 | 15 | 54:57 | 39 |
| 11 | Alverca | 34 | 10 | 9 | 15 | 35:52 | 39 |
| 12 | Rio Ave | 34 | 8 | 12 | 14 | 35:57 | 36 |
| 13 | Santa Clara | 34 | 9 | 9 | 16 | 32:41 | 36 |
| 14 | Nacional | 34 | 9 | 7 | 18 | 37:45 | 34 |
| 15 | Estrela da Amadora | 34 | 6 | 12 | 16 | 38:56 | 30 |
| 16 | Casa Pia | 34 | 6 | 12 | 16 | 31:57 | 30 |
| 17 | Tondela | 34 | 6 | 10 | 18 | 27:55 | 28 |
| 18 | AFS | 34 | 3 | 12 | 19 | 27:67 | 21 |
Promotion - Champions League (League phase)
Promotion - Europa League (Qualification)
Promotion - Conference League (Qualification)
Relegation - Liga Portugal 2025/2026 (Relegation)
Relegation - Liga Portugal 2 (Main)
Relegation - Liga Portugal 2 (Main)
