Sport Picks

Portugal

Liga Portugal 2025/2026 Estádio Municipal de Rio Maior

Casa Pia

0 - 1

Tondela

Our Tip

Match Events

49'

Livolant J.

51'

Brito R.

55'

Cassiano

Summary Win Prob Goals Form H2H Tactics Players Indices Predictions Timeline Accuracy Compare

AI Match Summary

The Liga Portugal 2025/2026 game between Casa Pia and Tondela finished 0-1, a result that aligned with the model's pre-match lean toward Tondela.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

42%

Casa Pia

20%

Draws

38%

Tondela

Draw rate projection: 20% Favored: Casa Pia

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

67% / Medium Confidence

Tondela's 1.13 goals per match outpaces what Casa Pia have produced (0.63).
Win probability leans Casa Pia's way, sitting at 42%.
This is a straightforward league game — the season-long numbers should hold up.
Strong defensive structures favor a low-scoring, controlled fixture.

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 92%

Over 1.5 Goals 82%

Over 2.5 Goals 35%

Over 3.5 Goals 22%

Over 4.5 Goals 10%

Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 67.8%

Casa Pia Clean Sheet 20%

Tondela Clean Sheet 15%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric	Casa Pia	Tondela
Matches Played	29	28
Wins	6	6
Draws	11	8
Losses	12	14
Goals Scored	0.63	1.13
Goals Conceded	1.13	1.38
Expected Goals (xG)	0.63	1.13
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA)	1.13	1.38

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

May 3, 2026 Liga Portugal

Casa Pia vs Tondela

Possession: 42% - 49% Cards: 2 - 1

0:1

Dec 21, 2025 Liga Portugal

Tondela vs Casa Pia

Possession: 55% - 59% Cards: 1 - 2

1:2

Sokapicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Casa Pia 42 / 100

Tondela 37 / 100

How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

Casa Pia Tondela

Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick Draw (X)

Secondary Pick Under 2.5 Goals & BTTS Yes

Correct Score 1:1

BTTS Outcome Yes (GG)

Over/Under Pick Under 2.5

Sokapicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Defensive concern: Tondela conceded in 75% of 28 recent games.

These sides typically produce 2.00 goals when they meet.

Casa Pia went unbeaten in 4 of their last 5 games.

Attacking prowess: Casa Pia scored in 59% of their last 29 outings.

Scoring Trends

Casa Pia VS Tondela

0.63 Goals Scored 1.13

1.13 Goals Conceded 1.38

50% Over 1.5 75%

25% Over 2.5 38%

13% Over 3.5 38%

League Standings

Pos	Team	P	W	D	L	GD	Pts
1	FC Porto	34	28	4	2	66:18	88
2	Sporting CP	34	25	7	2	89:24	82
3	Benfica	34	23	11	0	74:25	80
4	Braga	34	16	11	7	64:36	59
5	Famalicao	34	15	11	8	42:29	56
6	Gil Vicente	34	13	11	10	47:38	50
7	Moreirense	34	12	7	15	37:49	43
8	Arouca	34	12	6	16	47:64	42
9	Vitoria Guimaraes	34	12	6	16	39:51	42
10	Estoril	34	10	9	15	54:57	39
11	Alverca	34	10	9	15	35:52	39
12	Rio Ave	34	8	12	14	35:57	36
13	Santa Clara	34	9	9	16	32:41	36
14	Nacional	34	9	7	18	37:45	34
15	Estrela da Amadora	34	6	12	16	38:56	30
16	Casa Pia	34	6	12	16	31:57	30
17	Tondela	34	6	10	18	27:55	28
18	AFS	34	3	12	19	27:67	21