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Casa vs Mbour

Senegal Senegal

Ligue 1 2025/2026
Casa Logo

Casa

1 - 1
FT
Mbour Logo

Mbour

Our Tip
Summary Win Prob Goals Form H2H Tactics Players Indices Predictions Timeline Accuracy Compare

AI Match Summary

Neither side could be separated in this Ligue 1 2025/2026 matchup, with the score ending 1-1.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

41%
Casa
30%
Draws
29%
Mbour
Draw rate projection: 30% Favored: Casa

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

41% / Low Confidence
  • Casa have won more games recently than Mbour.
  • Win probability leans Casa's way, sitting at 50%.
  • Regular Ligue 1 2025/2026 form gives a decent read on both sides.
  • High conversion rates suggest a high-scoring game (Over 2.5 Probability: 78%).

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 92%
Over 1.5 Goals 82%
Over 2.5 Goals 78%
Over 3.5 Goals 0%
Over 4.5 Goals 0%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 65.8%
Casa Clean Sheet 20%
Mbour Clean Sheet 19%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Casa Mbour
Matches Played 30 30
Wins 7 5
Draws 19 18
Losses 4 7
Goals Scored 0.97 0.6
Goals Conceded 0.67 0.7
Expected Goals (xG) 0.76 0.69
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.10 1.40

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Mar 29, 2026 Ligue 1
Casa vs Mbour
1:1
Dec 7, 2025 Ligue 1
Mbour vs Casa
0:0
May 19, 2024 Ligue 1
Casa vs Mbour
2:2
Jan 7, 2024 Ligue 1
Mbour vs Casa
1:2
Jul 16, 2023 Ligue 1
Casa vs Mbour
0:0

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Casa 49 / 100
Mbour 24 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Casa Mbour

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick Casa Win (1)
Secondary Pick Over 2.5 Goals or BTTS Yes
Correct Score 2:1
BTTS Outcome Yes (GG)
Over/Under Pick Over 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Casa scored in 63% of their last 30 games.

Games between these two average 1.80 goals.

Casa went unbeaten in 3 of their last 5 games.

Mbour's defensive record shows goals conceded in 47% of 30 matches.

Scoring Trends

Casa VS Mbour
0.88 Goals Scored 0.75
0.63 Goals Conceded 0.63
63% Over 1.5 63%
25% Over 2.5 0%
0% Over 3.5 0%

Recent Form & Match History

Casa

(Home)
04 Jun
Casa
1 : 2
Dakar Sacre-Coeur
22 May
ASC Jaraaf
0 : 0
Casa
17 May
Casa
1 : 0
Pikine
13 May
Sonacos
0 : 3
Casa
10 May
Casa
1 : 2
Generation Foot
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Mbour

(Away)
04 Jun
US Goree
0 : 0
Mbour
22 May
Mbour
0 : 2
Guediawaye
17 May
Teungueth
2 : 0
Mbour
13 May
Dakar Sacre-Coeur
0 : 2
Mbour
10 May
Mbour
1 : 1
Wally Daan
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League Standings

Pos Team P W D L GD Pts
1 Teungueth 30 13 15 2 21:6 54
2 AJEL 30 15 9 6 27:19 54
3 Generation Foot 30 13 9 8 37:22 48
4 US Goree 30 11 15 4 29:14 48
5 Wally Daan 30 10 14 6 29:24 44
6 Ouakam 30 8 18 4 23:16 42
7 ASC Jaraaf 30 9 14 7 21:16 41
8 Casa 30 7 19 4 29:20 40
9 Pikine 30 7 13 10 20:19 34
10 Mbour 30 5 18 7 18:21 33
11 ASC HLM 30 5 18 7 18:24 33
12 Dakar Sacre-Coeur 30 5 16 9 24:37 31
13 Guediawaye 30 7 8 15 29:34 28
14 Linguere 30 3 16 11 22:36 25
15 Sonacos 30 4 13 13 18:39 25
16 AS Camberene 30 3 15 12 16:34 24
Promotion - CAF Champions League (Qualification)