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Casale vs Pinerolo

Italy Italy

Serie D - Group A 2022/2023
Our Tip

Match Events

3' Event
Ferro A.
47' Event
Moreo N.
50' Event
De Riggi S.

AI Match Summary

Neither side could be separated in this Serie D - Group A 2022/2023 matchup, with the score ending 2-2.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

22%
Casale
35%
Draws
43%
Pinerolo
Draw rate projection: 35% Favored: Pinerolo

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

35% / Low Confidence
  • Pinerolo have won more games recently than Casale.
  • Model puts this one close, with a 40% draw probability.
  • This is a straightforward league game — the season-long numbers should hold up.
  • High conversion rates suggest a high-scoring game (Over 2.5 Probability: 78%).

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 92%
Over 1.5 Goals 82%
Over 2.5 Goals 78%
Over 3.5 Goals 70%
Over 4.5 Goals 32%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 65%
Casale Clean Sheet 20%
Pinerolo Clean Sheet 14%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Casale Pinerolo
Matches Played 30 34
Wins 1 7
Draws 5 13
Losses 24 14
Goals Scored 0.5 0.71
Goals Conceded 2.43 1.12
Expected Goals (xG) 1.10 0.86
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.10 1.40

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Apr 23, 2023 Serie D - Group A
Casale vs Pinerolo
2:2
Dec 11, 2022 Serie D - Group A
Pinerolo vs Casale
3:0
Apr 13, 2017 Serie D - Group A
Pinerolo vs Casale
2:1
Dec 4, 2016 Serie D - Group A
Casale vs Pinerolo
2:2

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

Casale Compare

Top Goalscorer Ferro A.
1 Goals
Assists Leader Moreo N.
1 Ast
Avg xG / game 0.85
Avg xA / game 0.55

Pinerolo Compare

Top Goalscorer De Riggi S.
1 Goals
Assists Leader Amansour A.
1 Ast
Avg xG / game 0.78
Avg xA / game 0.48

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Casale 32 / 100
Pinerolo 29 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Casale Pinerolo

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick Draw (X)
Secondary Pick Over 2.5 Goals or BTTS Yes
Correct Score 2:2
BTTS Outcome Yes (GG)
Over/Under Pick Over 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

H2H data points to 3.50 goals as a typical output.

Pinerolo let in goals in 68% of their last 34 matches.

Attacking prowess: Casale scored in 37% of their last 30 outings.

Casale has registered 2 games unbeaten in their last 5 outings.

Scoring Trends

- VS Pinerolo
0 Goals Scored 0.63
0 Goals Conceded 1
0% Over 1.5 50%
0% Over 2.5 13%
0% Over 3.5 13%

Recent Form & Match History

Casale

(Home)
07 May
Casale
1 : 1
Asti Calcio
30 Apr
Chisola
2 : 1
Casale
23 Apr
Casale
2 : 2
Pinerolo
15 Apr
Sanremese
1 : 0
Casale
06 Apr
Casale
0 : 2
Castanese
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Pinerolo

(Away)
12 May
AC Chieri
0 : 0
Pinerolo
05 May
Pinerolo
0 : 2
Alba
28 Apr
Sanremese
0 : 0
Pinerolo
21 Apr
Pinerolo
1 : 1
Ligorna
14 Apr
Varese FC
1 : 1
Pinerolo
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League Standings

Pos Team P W D L GD Pts
1 Sestri Levante 38 30 4 4 77:29 94
2 Sanremese 38 21 11 6 59:33 74
3 Bra 38 21 11 6 59:31 74
4 Vado 38 19 12 7 61:40 69
5 Ligorna 38 17 15 6 50:36 66
6 Legnano 38 17 9 12 53:35 60
7 Asti Calcio 38 13 18 7 44:35 57
8 Gozzano 38 16 7 15 51:48 55
9 Borgosesia Calcio 38 14 10 14 54:54 52
10 PDHA 38 12 11 15 33:43 47
11 Castellanzese 38 11 13 14 51:55 46
12 AC Chieri 38 10 15 13 41:45 45
13 Fezzanese 38 11 12 15 47:58 45
14 Chisola 38 11 10 17 43:53 43
15 Pinerolo 38 8 18 12 38:44 42
16 Derthona FbC 38 9 15 14 55:62 42
17 Castanese 38 9 12 17 43:57 39
18 Stresa Vergante 38 7 13 18 37:47 34
19 Casale 38 5 9 24 28:79 24
20 Fossano 38 1 11 26 40:80 14
Promotion - Serie D - Group A 2022/2023 (Play Offs)
Relegation - Serie D - Group A 2022/2023 (Play Out)