Sport Picks

Stadium Background

Casarano vs Bitonto - H2H Analysis, Preview & Predictions

Italy Italy

Serie D - Group H 2023/2024 Stadio Giuseppe Capozza, Casarano
Our Tip

Match Events

16' Event
Guastamacchia A.
65' Event
Mazzarano L.
90' Event
Legittimo M.

AI Match Summary

Casarano in this Serie D - Group H 2023/2024 matchup, with the score ending 2-1 — backing the pre-match view that favored Casarano.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

46%
Casarano
15%
Draws
39%
Bitonto
Draw rate projection: 15% Favored: Casarano

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

46% / Medium Confidence
  • Form's been kind to Casarano lately — more wins on the board than Bitonto.
  • Casarano are the model's pick here, at 90%.
  • This is a straightforward league game — the season-long numbers should hold up.
  • High conversion rates suggest a high-scoring game (Over 2.5 Probability: 78%).
  • Casarano have won 4 of the last 5 meetings between these two.

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 92%
Over 1.5 Goals 82%
Over 2.5 Goals 78%
Over 3.5 Goals 12.5%
Over 4.5 Goals 6%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 69.4%
Casarano Clean Sheet 20%
Bitonto Clean Sheet 10%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Casarano Bitonto
Matches Played 30 30
Wins 15 6
Draws 4 8
Losses 11 16
Goals Scored 1.5 0.73
Goals Conceded 1.27 1.37
Expected Goals (xG) 1.67 1.06
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.10 1.40

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

May 5, 2024 Serie D - Group H
Casarano vs Bitonto
2:1
Dec 20, 2023 Serie D - Group H
Bitonto vs Casarano
0:1
May 7, 2023 Serie D - Group H
Bitonto vs Casarano
2:2
Dec 21, 2022 Serie D - Group H
Casarano vs Bitonto
1:0
Mar 6, 2022 Serie D - Group H
Bitonto vs Casarano
0:1

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

Casarano Compare

Top Goalscorer Guastamacchia A.
1 Goals
Assists Leader Legittimo M.
1 Ast
Avg xG / game 1.28
Avg xA / game 0.83

Bitonto Compare

Top Goalscorer Mazzarano L.
1 Goals
Avg xG / game 0.96
Avg xA / game 0.59

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Casarano 85 / 100
Bitonto 10 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Casarano Bitonto

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick Casarano Win (1)
Secondary Pick Over 2.5 Goals or BTTS Yes
Correct Score 2:1
BTTS Outcome Yes (GG)
Over/Under Pick Over 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Casarano found the back of the net in 73% of recent matches (30 games).

Bitonto let in goals in 73% of their last 30 matches.

H2H data points to 2.00 goals as a typical output.

Recent resilience: Casarano stayed unbeaten in 3 of the last 5 games.

Scoring Trends

Casarano VS -
2.13 Goals Scored 0
1.13 Goals Conceded 0
100% Over 1.5 0%
75% Over 2.5 0%
25% Over 3.5 0%

Recent Form & Match History

Casarano

(Home)
03 Oct
Sorrento
2 : 0
Casarano
27 Sept
Casarano
0 : 1
Monopoli
19 Sept
A.C. Savoia
1 : 1
Casarano
15 Sept
Casarano
1 : 0
Audace Cerignola
11 Sept
Casarano
3 : 1
Barletta
Page 1 of 6

Bitonto

(Away)
05 May
Casarano
2 : 1
Bitonto
28 Apr
Bitonto
2 : 1
Altamura
21 Apr
Gravina
5 : 1
Bitonto
14 Apr
Bitonto
2 : 0
Palmese 1914
07 Apr
Fidelis Andria
2 : 1
Bitonto
Page 1 of 6

League Standings

Pos Team P W D L GD Pts
1 Altamura 34 21 9 4 51:23 72
2 Martina Calcio 34 18 12 4 51:23 66
3 A.C.D. Nardo 34 20 5 9 53:24 65
4 Fidelis Andria 34 17 10 7 58:32 61
5 Casarano 34 15 10 9 45:32 55
6 Matera 34 15 8 11 45:37 53
7 Paganese 34 12 9 13 42:43 45
8 Palmese 1914 34 13 7 14 45:52 45
9 Gelbison 34 11 10 13 41:37 43
10 Rotonda 34 11 9 14 36:36 42
11 Gravina 34 10 11 13 49:44 41
12 Manfredonia 34 9 15 10 28:38 41
13 Citta di Fasano 34 11 8 15 38:57 41
14 Angri 34 10 9 15 35:52 39
15 Gallipoli 34 8 9 17 27:49 33
16 Barletta 34 6 12 16 30:45 30
17 Bitonto 34 7 9 18 22:45 30
18 Santa Maria Cilento 34 5 10 19 22:55 25
Promotion - Serie D - Group H 2023/2024 (Play Offs)
Relegation - Serie D - Group H 2023/2024 (Play Out)