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Casarano vs Salernitana - H2H Analysis, Preview & Predictions

Italy Italy

Serie C - Group C Stadio Giuseppe Capozza, Casarano
Sun, Oct 11, 2026
VS
01:00 PM
Our Tip

AI Match Summary

Casarano host Salernitana in the Serie C - Group C. This looks like a genuine coin-flip fixture. Casarano have averaged 1.47 scored and 1.28 conceded recently, against Salernitana's 1.41 scored and 1.06 conceded. Past meetings favor Salernitana slightly — 0-1-1 in wins/losses/draws. They last met on Feb 10, 2026, ending 3:0. xG projections (1.25 - 1.50) back Salernitana to edge this. The model's pick is Away (2) to win or Under 2.5 goals.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

33%
Casarano
20%
Draws
47%
Salernitana
Draw rate projection: 20% Favored: Salernitana

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

47% / Medium Confidence
  • Salernitana carry the better recent record into this one.
  • Model puts this one close, with a 44% draw probability.
  • This is a straightforward league game — the season-long numbers should hold up.
  • Strong defensive structures favor a low-scoring, controlled fixture.

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 85%
Over 1.5 Goals 69%
Over 2.5 Goals 25%
Over 3.5 Goals 22%
Over 4.5 Goals 10%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 34.8%
Casarano Clean Sheet 16%
Salernitana Clean Sheet 68%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Casarano Salernitana
Matches Played 32 34
Wins 14 17
Draws 6 8
Losses 12 9
Goals Scored 1.47 1.41
Goals Conceded 1.28 1.06
Expected Goals (xG) 1.25 1.50
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.10 1.40

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Feb 10, 2026 Serie C - Group C
Salernitana vs Casarano
3:0
Sep 28, 2025 Serie C - Group C
Casarano vs Salernitana
2:2

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Casarano 36 / 100
Salernitana 32 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Casarano Salernitana

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick Salernitana Win (2)
Secondary Pick Under 2.5 Goals or BTTS No
Correct Score 0:1
BTTS Outcome No (NG)
Over/Under Pick Under 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Historical meetings average 3.50 goals per match.

Casarano scored in 72% of their last 32 games.

Defensive concern: Salernitana conceded in 76% of 34 recent games.

Casarano went unbeaten in 3 of their last 5 games.

Scoring Trends

Casarano VS Salernitana
1.25 Goals Scored 1.5
1.5 Goals Conceded 1.25
50% Over 1.5 88%
38% Over 2.5 50%
38% Over 3.5 13%

Recent Form & Match History

Casarano

(Home)
03 Oct
Sorrento
2 : 0
Casarano
27 Sept
Casarano
0 : 1
Monopoli
19 Sept
A.C. Savoia
1 : 1
Casarano
15 Sept
Casarano
1 : 0
Audace Cerignola
11 Sept
Casarano
3 : 1
Barletta
Page 1 of 7

Salernitana

(Away)
04 Oct
Salernitana
2 : 1
Bari
26 Sept
Crotone
2 : 1
Salernitana
19 Sept
Salernitana
1 : 0
Giugliano
15 Sept
Barletta
1 : 1
Salernitana
11 Sept
Salernitana
4 : 2
Potenza
Page 1 of 7

League Standings

Pos Team P W D L GD Pts
1 Potenza 8 6 1 1 21:11 19
2 Sorrento 8 6 0 2 12:7 18
3 Bari 8 5 1 2 11:6 16
4 Catania 8 4 1 3 14:10 13
5 Salernitana 8 3 3 2 12:10 12
6 Monopoli 8 3 3 2 6:4 12
7 Picerno 8 4 0 4 16:15 12
8 Casertana 8 3 3 2 12:12 12
9 Audace Cerignola 8 3 2 3 11:7 11
10 Foggia 8 3 2 3 8:7 11
11 Cavese 8 3 2 3 14:14 11
12 Scafatese 7 2 4 1 10:9 10
13 Inter U23 6 3 1 2 11:11 10
14 Casarano 8 3 1 4 10:13 10
15 Altamura 8 2 2 4 4:10 8
16 A.C. Savoia 8 1 4 3 9:11 7
17 Barletta 8 1 4 3 11:14 7
18 Giugliano 7 2 1 4 12:16 7
19 Cosenza 8 0 2 6 5:18 2
20 Crotone 8 1 3 4 8:12 0
Promotion - Serie B 2027/2028 (Main)
Promotion - Serie C - Group A (Play Offs)
Promotion - Serie C - Group A (Play Offs)
Promotion - Serie C - Group A (Play Offs)
Promotion - Serie C - Group A (Play Offs)
Relegation - Serie C - Group A (Play Out)