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Casertana vs Sorrento Prediction & H2H Stats

Italy Italy

Serie C - Group C 2025/2026 Stadio Alberto Pinto, Caserta
Our Tip

Match Events

9' Event
Butic K.
34'
Diop S.
38'
Solcia D.

AI Match Summary

The Serie C - Group C 2025/2026 game between Casertana and Sorrento finished 2-0, a result that aligned with the model's pre-match lean toward Casertana.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

38%
Casertana
20%
Draws
42%
Sorrento
Draw rate projection: 20% Favored: Sorrento

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

20% / Low Confidence
  • Casertana's 1.41 goals per match outpaces what Sorrento have produced (1.03).
  • Model gives Casertana a 42% chance of winning this.
  • This is a straightforward league game — the season-long numbers should hold up.
  • High conversion rates suggest a high-scoring game (Over 2.5 Probability: 78%).
  • Casertana have won 4 of the last 5 meetings between these two.

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 92%
Over 1.5 Goals 82%
Over 2.5 Goals 78%
Over 3.5 Goals 70%
Over 4.5 Goals 32%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 70.2%
Casertana Clean Sheet 16%
Sorrento Clean Sheet 13%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Casertana Sorrento
Matches Played 29 29
Wins 12 12
Draws 8 4
Losses 9 13
Goals Scored 1.41 1.03
Goals Conceded 1.38 1.31
Expected Goals (xG) 1.13 1.44
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.10 1.40

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Mar 30, 2026 Serie C - Group C
Casertana vs Sorrento
2:0
Nov 22, 2025 Serie C - Group C
Sorrento vs Casertana
1:2
Mar 16, 2025 Serie C - Group C
Casertana vs Sorrento
4:0
Nov 4, 2024 Serie C - Group C
Sorrento vs Casertana
1:1
Apr 27, 2024 Serie C - Group C
Casertana vs Sorrento
5:2

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

Casertana Compare

Top Goalscorer Butic K.
1 Goals
Assists Leader Bentivegna A.
1 Ast
Avg xG / game 0.87
Avg xA / game 0.56

Sorrento Compare

Avg xG / game 1.31
Avg xA / game 0.8

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Casertana 41 / 100
Sorrento 37 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Casertana Sorrento

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick Draw (X)
Secondary Pick Over 2.5 Goals or BTTS Yes
Correct Score 2:2
BTTS Outcome Yes (GG)
Over/Under Pick Over 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Games between these two average 3.60 goals.

Casertana found the back of the net in 79% of recent matches (29 games).

Sorrento's defensive record shows goals conceded in 69% of 29 matches.

Casertana has registered 4 games unbeaten in their last 5 outings.

Scoring Trends

Casertana VS Sorrento
1.63 Goals Scored 1.5
1.38 Goals Conceded 0.63
75% Over 1.5 50%
63% Over 2.5 38%
38% Over 3.5 13%

Recent Form & Match History

Casertana

(Home)
27 Sept
Casertana
1 : 2
Catania
19 Sept
Audace Cerignola
0 : 0
Casertana
15 Sept
Casertana
1 : 0
Altamura
12 Sept
Inter U23
2 : 3
Casertana
06 Sept
Casertana
2 : 2
Scafatese
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Sorrento

(Away)
27 Sept
Foggia
2 : 0
Sorrento
19 Sept
Sorrento
1 : 2
Bari
15 Sept
Cavese
2 : 3
Sorrento
12 Sept
Sorrento
1 : 0
Picerno
05 Sept
Giugliano
0 : 2
Sorrento
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League Standings

Pos Team P W D L GD Pts
1 Benevento 38 25 7 6 74:28 82
2 Catania 38 19 13 6 54:25 70
3 Salernitana 38 20 9 9 50:42 69
4 Cosenza 38 19 10 9 58:40 67
5 Casertana 38 19 9 10 55:44 66
6 Crotone 38 18 7 13 59:40 61
7 Monopoli 38 15 11 12 39:41 56
8 Casarano 38 16 8 14 56:57 56
9 Audace Cerignola 38 14 12 12 50:54 54
10 Potenza 38 12 13 13 54:56 49
11 Atalanta U23 38 11 12 15 53:50 45
12 Altamura 38 11 12 15 32:49 45
13 Latina 38 10 12 16 35:44 42
14 Cavese 38 9 15 14 36:42 42
15 Picerno 38 9 13 16 43:55 40
16 Sorrento 38 9 12 17 39:55 39
17 Giugliano 38 9 10 19 35:52 37
18 Foggia 38 6 9 23 28:60 27
19 Siracusa 38 9 10 19 48:57 26
20 Trapani 38 13 10 15 47:54 24
Promotion - Serie B (Main)
Promotion - Serie C - Group A 2025/2026 (Play Offs)
Promotion - Serie C - Group A 2025/2026 (Play Offs)
Promotion - Serie C - Group A 2025/2026 (Play Offs)
Promotion - Serie C - Group A 2025/2026 (Play Offs)