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Castanhal vs Pinheirense Prediction & H2H Stats

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Campeonato Paraense 2017
Our Tip

Match Events

32' Event
Miranda J.
76' Event
Luciano
81' Event
Hallace

AI Match Summary

The Campeonato Paraense 2017 game between Castanhal and Pinheirense finished 3-2, a result that aligned with the model's pre-match lean toward Castanhal.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

34%
Castanhal
20%
Draws
46%
Pinheirense
Draw rate projection: 20% Favored: Pinheirense

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

46% / Medium Confidence
  • Look at the last few games and Castanhal come out ahead of Pinheirense on wins alone.
  • Pinheirense are the model's pick here, at 40%.
  • This is a straightforward league game — the season-long numbers should hold up.
  • Strong defensive structures favor a low-scoring, controlled fixture.

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 85%
Over 1.5 Goals 50%
Over 2.5 Goals 25%
Over 3.5 Goals 22%
Over 4.5 Goals 10%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 30%
Castanhal Clean Sheet 23%
Pinheirense Clean Sheet 68%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Castanhal Pinheirense
Matches Played 32 26
Wins 12 5
Draws 8 10
Losses 12 11
Goals Scored 1.13 0.88
Goals Conceded 1.19 1.42
Expected Goals (xG) 0.94 1.00
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.10 1.40

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Apr 8, 2017 Paraense
Pinheirense vs Castanhal
0:2
Feb 18, 2017 Paraense
Castanhal vs Pinheirense
3:2

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

Castanhal Compare

Top Goalscorer Luciano
1 Goals
Assists Leader Rocha C.
1 Ast
Avg xG / game 0.72
Avg xA / game 0.47

Pinheirense Compare

Top Goalscorer Miranda J.
1 Goals
Assists Leader Hallace
1 Ast
Avg xG / game 0.91
Avg xA / game 0.56

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Castanhal 29 / 100
Pinheirense 50 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Castanhal Pinheirense

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick Pinheirense Win (2)
Secondary Pick Under 2.5 Goals or BTTS No
Correct Score 0:1
BTTS Outcome No (NG)
Over/Under Pick Under 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

These sides typically produce 3.50 goals when they meet.

Castanhal scored in 63% of their last 32 games.

Pinheirense has conceded goals in 77% of their last 26 outings.

Solid form: Castanhal remains unbeaten in 2 of 5 recent matches.

Scoring Trends

Castanhal VS Pinheirense
0.63 Goals Scored 1.25
0.75 Goals Conceded 1.25
25% Over 1.5 75%
13% Over 2.5 50%
13% Over 3.5 38%

Recent Form & Match History

Castanhal

(Home)
11 Mar
Castanhal
0 : 4
Nova Iguacu
07 Mar
Castanhal
0 : 1
Capitao Poco
28 Feb
Castanhal
1 : 0
Aguia De Maraba
25 Feb
Castanhal
2 : 1
Guarani
22 Feb
Paysandu PA
1 : 0
Castanhal
Page 1 of 7

Pinheirense

(Away)
03 Oct
Pinheirense
2 : 0
Venus
27 Sept
Venus
2 : 1
Pinheirense
20 Sept
Tesla
2 : 2
Pinheirense
16 Sept
Pinheirense
1 : 0
Paraense SC
11 Sept
Pinheirense
1 : 1
Tesla
Page 1 of 6

League Standings (Group 1)

Pos Team P W D L GD Pts
1 Paysandu PA 10 6 2 2 17:5 20
2 Sao Raimundo PA 10 4 5 1 15:9 17
3 Cameta 10 2 3 5 6:16 9
4 Paragominas 10 2 2 6 12:18 8
5 Pinheirense 10 1 2 7 6:18 5
Promotion - Campeonato Paraense 2017 (Play Offs)

League Standings (Group 2)

Pos Team P W D L GD Pts
1 Remo 10 6 4 0 18:7 22
2 Independente 10 5 3 2 16:11 18
3 Aguia De Maraba 10 4 3 3 14:10 15
4 Castanhal 10 4 3 3 12:11 15
5 Sao Francisco 10 2 1 7 6:17 7
Promotion - Campeonato Paraense 2017 (Play Offs)