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Castegnato vs Breno Prediction & H2H Stats

Italy Italy

Serie D - Group C 2023/2024
Our Tip

Match Events

1' Event
Vita D.
22' Event
Melchiori L.
53' Event
Scanzi M.

AI Match Summary

Breno in this Serie D - Group C 2023/2024 matchup, with the score ending 0-3 — backing the pre-match view that favored Breno.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

12%
Castegnato
30%
Draws
58%
Breno
Draw rate projection: 30% Favored: Breno

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

58% / Medium Confidence
  • Form's been kind to Breno lately — more wins on the board than Castegnato.
  • 58% — that's where the model lands on Breno taking it.
  • This is a straightforward league game — the season-long numbers should hold up.
  • Strong defensive structures favor a low-scoring, controlled fixture.

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 85%
Over 1.5 Goals 44%
Over 2.5 Goals 25%
Over 3.5 Goals 19%
Over 4.5 Goals 9%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 34%
Castegnato Clean Sheet 21%
Breno Clean Sheet 68%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Castegnato Breno
Matches Played 30 32
Wins 7 10
Draws 9 7
Losses 14 15
Goals Scored 1.2 1.06
Goals Conceded 1.83 1.41
Expected Goals (xG) 1.42 1.11
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.10 1.40

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Jan 7, 2024 Serie D - Group C
Castegnato vs Breno
0:3
Sep 10, 2023 Serie D - Group C
Breno vs Castegnato
1:1

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

Castegnato Compare

Avg xG / game 1.09
Avg xA / game 0.71

Breno Compare

Top Goalscorer Vita D.
1 Goals
Assists Leader Melchiori L.
1 Ast
Avg xG / game 1.01
Avg xA / game 0.62

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Castegnato 16 / 100
Breno 77 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Castegnato Breno

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick Breno Win (2)
Secondary Pick Under 2.5 Goals or BTTS No
Correct Score 0:1
BTTS Outcome No (NG)
Over/Under Pick Under 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Breno has conceded goals in 81% of their last 32 outings.

Castegnato found the back of the net in 73% of recent matches (30 games).

Games between these two average 2.50 goals.

Recent resilience: Castegnato stayed unbeaten in 1 of the last 5 games.

Scoring Trends

- VS Breno
0 Goals Scored 1.13
0 Goals Conceded 1.63
0% Over 1.5 88%
0% Over 2.5 50%
0% Over 3.5 38%

Recent Form & Match History

Castegnato

(Home)
12 May
Luparense FC
2 : 0
Castegnato
05 May
Adriese
5 : 2
Castegnato
28 Apr
Castegnato
1 : 2
Treviso
21 Apr
Castegnato
1 : 4
Montecchio Maggiore
14 Apr
Chions
2 : 2
Castegnato
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Breno

(Away)
10 May
Breno
0 : 1
Pavia
03 May
Breno
2 : 1
Villa Valle
26 Apr
Varesina
2 : 2
Breno
19 Apr
Breno
0 : 2
Brusaporto
12 Apr
Real Calepina
1 : 1
Breno
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League Standings

Pos Team P W D L GD Pts
1 Clodiense 34 25 5 4 49:17 80
2 Dolomiti Bellunesi 34 19 9 6 56:25 66
3 Treviso 34 19 3 12 51:37 60
4 Bassano Virtus 34 15 9 10 35:30 54
5 Campodarsego 34 12 15 7 42:26 51
6 Este 34 13 12 9 44:33 51
7 Montecchio Maggiore 34 14 9 11 48:40 51
8 Adriese 34 13 11 10 54:41 50
9 Portogruaro 34 13 9 12 52:43 48
10 Mestre 34 13 9 12 34:37 48
11 Montebelluna 34 11 12 11 35:41 45
12 Chions 34 10 11 13 40:50 41
13 Luparense FC 34 10 9 15 38:41 39
14 Breno 34 8 13 13 39:49 37
15 Cjarlins Muzane 34 7 14 13 30:37 35
16 Castegnato 34 7 12 15 39:58 33
17 Virtus Bolzano 34 4 12 18 25:52 24
18 Mori 34 3 6 25 22:76 15
Promotion - Serie D - Group C 2023/2024 (Play Offs)
Relegation - Serie D - Group C 2023/2024 (Play Out)