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Castellanzese vs Breno

Italy Italy

Serie D - Group B 2025/2026
Our Tip

Match Events

61' Event
Castelli M.
90' Event
Bitihene B.

AI Match Summary

The Serie D - Group B 2025/2026 game between Castellanzese and Breno finished 0-2, a result that aligned with the model's pre-match lean toward Breno.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

44%
Castellanzese
20%
Draws
36%
Breno
Draw rate projection: 20% Favored: Castellanzese

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

44% / Low Confidence
  • Breno have managed 0.97 goals a game lately — Castellanzese are scoring more at 1.07.
  • Model gives Castellanzese a 44% chance of winning this.
  • This is a straightforward league game — the season-long numbers should hold up.
  • Strong defensive structures favor a low-scoring, controlled fixture.

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 91%
Over 1.5 Goals 81.5%
Over 2.5 Goals 25%
Over 3.5 Goals 22%
Over 4.5 Goals 10%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 32.8%
Castellanzese Clean Sheet 68%
Breno Clean Sheet 10%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Castellanzese Breno
Matches Played 29 30
Wins 8 8
Draws 8 7
Losses 13 15
Goals Scored 1.07 0.97
Goals Conceded 1.21 1.5
Expected Goals (xG) 1.44 1.19
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.10 1.40

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Jan 4, 2026 Serie D - Group B
Castellanzese vs Breno
0:2
Sep 7, 2025 Serie D - Group B
Breno vs Castellanzese
0:0
Mar 23, 2025 Serie D - Group B
Breno vs Castellanzese
1:1
Nov 10, 2024 Serie D - Group B
Castellanzese vs Breno
2:2
Apr 10, 2022 Serie D - Group B
Castellanzese vs Breno
1:1

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

Castellanzese Compare

Avg xG / game 1.11
Avg xA / game 0.72

Breno Compare

Top Goalscorer Castelli M.
1 Goals
Assists Leader Bitihene B.
1 Ast
Avg xG / game 1.08
Avg xA / game 0.66

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Castellanzese 59 / 100
Breno 22 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Castellanzese Breno

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick Castellanzese Win (1)
Secondary Pick Under 2.5 Goals or BTTS No
Correct Score 1:0
BTTS Outcome No (NG)
Over/Under Pick Under 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Breno's defensive record shows goals conceded in 87% of 30 matches.

Castellanzese found the back of the net in 66% of recent matches (29 games).

H2H data points to 2.00 goals as a typical output.

Recent resilience: Castellanzese stayed unbeaten in 2 of the last 5 games.

Scoring Trends

Castellanzese VS Breno
1.25 Goals Scored 0.88
1.5 Goals Conceded 1.63
75% Over 1.5 88%
63% Over 2.5 50%
38% Over 3.5 13%

Recent Form & Match History

Castellanzese

(Home)
20 Sept
Solbiatese
1 : 4
Castellanzese
16 Sept
Castellanzese
0 : 1
Oltrepo
12 Sept
Lentigione
1 : 0
Castellanzese
06 Sept
Castellanzese
3 : 1
US Pontedera
10 May
Castellanzese
1 : 2
Varesina
Page 1 of 6

Breno

(Away)
10 May
Breno
0 : 1
Pavia
03 May
Breno
2 : 1
Villa Valle
26 Apr
Varesina
2 : 2
Breno
19 Apr
Breno
0 : 2
Brusaporto
12 Apr
Real Calepina
1 : 1
Breno
Page 1 of 6

League Standings

Pos Team P W D L GD Pts
1 Folgore Caratese 34 19 11 4 58:27 68
2 USD Casatese 34 16 13 5 49:28 61
3 Chievo 34 18 6 10 52:43 60
4 AC Milan U23 34 16 8 10 62:37 56
5 AC Leon 34 14 11 9 44:34 53
6 Brusaporto 34 15 6 13 41:38 51
7 Oltrepo 34 15 8 11 38:36 50
8 Scanzorosciate 34 11 14 9 41:33 47
9 Villa Valle 34 13 8 13 43:46 47
10 Ciserano-Bergamo 34 11 13 10 33:31 46
11 Caldiero Terme 34 10 15 9 50:40 45
12 Real Calepina 34 11 9 14 42:47 42
13 Castellanzese 34 10 11 13 41:39 41
14 Breno 34 9 11 14 39:51 38
15 Pavia 34 9 10 15 36:47 37
16 Varesina 34 7 15 12 38:44 36
17 Sondrio 34 8 7 19 37:64 31
18 Vogherese 34 2 8 24 21:80 -17
Promotion - Serie D - Group B 2025/2026 (Play Offs)
Relegation - Serie D - Group B 2025/2026 (Play Out)