Sport Picks

Stadium Background

Castellanzese vs Varesina

Italy Italy

Serie D - Group B 2025/2026
Our Tip

Match Events

33'
Robbiati A.
52' Event
Arcopinto A.
67' Event
Chessa M.

AI Match Summary

Varesina in this Serie D - Group B 2025/2026 tie, finishing 1-2. One-off knockout football delivers a decisive result.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

39%
Castellanzese
15%
Draws
46%
Varesina
Draw rate projection: 15% Favored: Varesina

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

39% / Low Confidence
  • Castellanzese have won more games recently than Varesina.
  • 39% — that's where the model lands on Castellanzese taking it.
  • Castellanzese have the better recent form, but knockout football is a different beast — one bad day ends the campaign.
  • Historical meetings favor Varesina, who have won 1 of the last 5 encounters.
  • Strong defensive structures favor a low-scoring, controlled fixture.

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 85%
Over 1.5 Goals 75%
Over 2.5 Goals 25%
Over 3.5 Goals 22%
Over 4.5 Goals 10%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 34.8%
Castellanzese Clean Sheet 68%
Varesina Clean Sheet 10%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Castellanzese Varesina
Matches Played 29 29
Wins 9 8
Draws 7 10
Losses 13 11
Goals Scored 1.1 1.07
Goals Conceded 1.21 1.21
Expected Goals (xG) 1.44 1.50
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.10 1.40

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

May 10, 2026 Serie D - Group B
Castellanzese vs Varesina
1:2
Mar 18, 2026 Serie D - Group B
Varesina vs Castellanzese
2:2
Nov 2, 2025 Serie D - Group B
Castellanzese vs Varesina
2:1
Apr 6, 2025 Serie D - Group B
Varesina vs Castellanzese
1:1
Nov 24, 2024 Serie D - Group B
Castellanzese vs Varesina
0:0

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

Castellanzese Compare

Top Goalscorer Chessa M.
1 Goals
Avg xG / game 1.11
Avg xA / game 0.72

Varesina Compare

Top Goalscorer Arcopinto A.
1 Goals
Assists Leader Manicone C.
1 Ast
Avg xG / game 1.36
Avg xA / game 0.83

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Castellanzese 68 / 100
Varesina 18 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Castellanzese Varesina

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick Castellanzese Win (1)
Secondary Pick Under 2.5 Goals or BTTS No
Correct Score 1:0
BTTS Outcome No (NG)
Over/Under Pick Under 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Varesina let in goals in 83% of their last 29 matches.

Castellanzese found the back of the net in 69% of recent matches (29 games).

Games between these two average 2.40 goals.

Solid form: Castellanzese remains unbeaten in 2 of 5 recent matches.

Scoring Trends

Castellanzese VS Varesina
1.5 Goals Scored 1.5
1.5 Goals Conceded 1.38
75% Over 1.5 75%
63% Over 2.5 63%
50% Over 3.5 38%

Recent Form & Match History

Castellanzese

(Home)
20 Sept
Solbiatese
1 : 4
Castellanzese
16 Sept
Castellanzese
0 : 1
Oltrepo
12 Sept
Lentigione
1 : 0
Castellanzese
06 Sept
Castellanzese
3 : 1
US Pontedera
10 May
Castellanzese
1 : 2
Varesina
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Varesina

(Away)
20 Sept
Varesina
0 : 1
Pistoiese
16 Sept
Correggese
2 : 1
Varesina
13 Sept
Sant'Angelo
1 : 1
Varesina
06 Sept
Varesina
3 : 2
Cittadella Vis Modena
10 May
Castellanzese
1 : 2
Varesina
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Tournament Bracket & Draw

Final
Castellanzese 1
Varesina 2
Breno 0
Pavia 1