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Castellanzese vs Villa Valle Prediction & H2H Stats

Italy Italy

Serie D - Group B 2025/2026
Our Tip

Match Events

22' Event
Chessa M.
79' Event
Castelletto E.

AI Match Summary

The Serie D - Group B 2025/2026 game between Castellanzese and Villa Valle finished 2-0, a result that aligned with the model's pre-match lean toward Castellanzese.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

42%
Castellanzese
30%
Draws
28%
Villa Valle
Draw rate projection: 30% Favored: Castellanzese

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

42% / Low Confidence
  • Look at the last few games and Castellanzese come out ahead of Villa Valle on wins alone.
  • Model gives Castellanzese a 42% chance of winning this.
  • Regular Serie D - Group B 2025/2026 form gives a decent read on both sides.
  • Strong defensive structures favor a low-scoring, controlled fixture.

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 85%
Over 1.5 Goals 75%
Over 2.5 Goals 25%
Over 3.5 Goals 22%
Over 4.5 Goals 10%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 36%
Castellanzese Clean Sheet 68%
Villa Valle Clean Sheet 10%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Castellanzese Villa Valle
Matches Played 29 28
Wins 10 9
Draws 6 10
Losses 13 9
Goals Scored 1.28 1.18
Goals Conceded 1.24 1.29
Expected Goals (xG) 1.56 1.13
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.10 1.40

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Feb 15, 2026 Serie D - Group B
Castellanzese vs Villa Valle
2:0
Oct 12, 2025 Serie D - Group B
Villa Valle vs Castellanzese
2:1
Jan 21, 2024 Serie D - Group B
Villa Valle vs Castellanzese
3:2
Sep 24, 2023 Serie D - Group B
Castellanzese vs Villa Valle
0:0
Apr 27, 2022 Serie D - Group B
Villa Valle vs Castellanzese
1:1

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

Castellanzese Compare

Top Goalscorer Chessa M.
1 Goals
Assists Leader Castelletto E.
1 Ast
Avg xG / game 1.2
Avg xA / game 0.78

Villa Valle Compare

Avg xG / game 1.03
Avg xA / game 0.63

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Castellanzese 86 / 100
Villa Valle 10 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Castellanzese Villa Valle

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick Castellanzese Win (1)
Secondary Pick Under 2.5 Goals or BTTS No
Correct Score 1:0
BTTS Outcome No (NG)
Over/Under Pick Under 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Castellanzese's goal record stands at 72% scoring rate across 29 recent games.

Villa Valle let in goals in 79% of their last 28 matches.

H2H data points to 2.40 goals as a typical output.

Solid form: Castellanzese remains unbeaten in 3 of 5 recent matches.

Scoring Trends

Castellanzese VS Villa Valle
1.75 Goals Scored 1
1.25 Goals Conceded 1.38
75% Over 1.5 75%
63% Over 2.5 63%
50% Over 3.5 25%

Recent Form & Match History

Castellanzese

(Home)
04 Oct
Sant'Angelo
1 : 2
Castellanzese
27 Sept
Castellanzese
4 : 0
Crema
20 Sept
Solbiatese
1 : 4
Castellanzese
16 Sept
Castellanzese
0 : 1
Oltrepo
12 Sept
Lentigione
1 : 0
Castellanzese
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Villa Valle

(Away)
04 Oct
Villa Valle
0 : 0
Fiorenzuola
27 Sept
AC Leon
1 : 2
Villa Valle
20 Sept
Villa Valle
1 : 2
AC Milan U23
16 Sept
Tritium
1 : 1
Villa Valle
12 Sept
Villa Valle
0 : 0
Ciserano-Bergamo
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League Standings

Pos Team P W D L GD Pts
1 Folgore Caratese 34 19 11 4 58:27 68
2 USD Casatese 34 16 13 5 49:28 61
3 Chievo 34 18 6 10 52:43 60
4 AC Milan U23 34 16 8 10 62:37 56
5 AC Leon 34 14 11 9 44:34 53
6 Brusaporto 34 15 6 13 41:38 51
7 Oltrepo 34 15 8 11 38:36 50
8 Scanzorosciate 34 11 14 9 41:33 47
9 Villa Valle 34 13 8 13 43:46 47
10 Ciserano-Bergamo 34 11 13 10 33:31 46
11 Caldiero Terme 34 10 15 9 50:40 45
12 Real Calepina 34 11 9 14 42:47 42
13 Castellanzese 34 10 11 13 41:39 41
14 Breno 34 9 11 14 39:51 38
15 Pavia 34 9 10 15 36:47 37
16 Varesina 34 7 15 12 38:44 36
17 Sondrio 34 8 7 19 37:64 31
18 Vogherese 34 2 8 24 21:80 -17
Promotion - Serie D - Group B 2025/2026 (Play Offs)
Relegation - Serie D - Group B 2025/2026 (Play Out)